
Escalating cyber threats, a struggling economy, the rise of China, and the unpredictable impact of the Arab Spring will dominate the next decade. At least, that’s the best collective guess of a conclave of academic experts, government officials, and military officers from the U.S. and abroad, convened by the United States Army. Their objective: This March the service plans to revise its Capstone Concept, issued in 2009, to outline the Army’s missions for the post-Afghanistan, post-budget-cut era. The road to that rethinking is a series of conferences and wargames called Unified Quest 2012, which kicked off at the end of October with a symposium to predict the future.
Instead of seeking – or simply imposing – a consensus around a single, supposedly authoritative vision of the world to come, the Army deliberately solicited a range of plausible “alternative futures.” “We’re not going to get 2020 right,” said Lt. Gen. Keith Walker, deputy commander for “futures” at the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), which convened the conference. But, Walker went on, “if we don’t consider all the possibilities of what we might have to do for the nation and try as hard as we can to get as many diverse views as we can, then we’re guaranteeing we’ll get it wrong.” Keep reading →