IAF photo

Israeli F-35Is in action.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have announced an historic diplomatic agreement catalyzed by the growing security threat posed by Iran. The United States, concerned about Tehran’s regional and nuclear ambitions, is leading an effort at the UN this week to prevent the Security Council’s arms embargo on Iran from expiring on October 18. If the United States does not secure an extension — which looks unlikely — the Islamic Republic of Iran will be able to acquire new and advanced weapons from Moscow and Beijing.

Tehran would likely use these weapons to escalate its attacks on American forces and U.S. partners in the region. The Islamic Republic might also use the new weapons as a means to shield a potential sprint to a nuclear weapons capability. That is a concern for Washington and Jerusalem,  of course, but it also is a concern elsewhere in the Arab world.

With these dangers looming, the Department of Defense and the Israel Defense Forces are getting ready for whatever may come.

On August 2, the US and Israel conducted the second iteration of Enduring Lightning, a joint exercise over Israel focused on improving the air-to-air and ground-strike capabilities of U.S. and Israeli Air Force (IAF) F-35 fifth-generation aircraft.

In Enduring Lightning II, F-35Is from the IAF’s 140th Squadron trained alongside U.S. F-35As from the 421st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, with an Israeli Nachshon command and control aircraft providing support.

The exercise saw substantial improvements over Enduring Lightning I earlier this year. This time, Israeli F-35s conducted air refueling with a KC-10 air refueling tanker from the U.S. 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron. And the American and Israeli F-35 pilots conducted training on how to operate their communication systems between aircraft.

The exercise pitted U.S. and IAF F-35 “blue air” against IAF F-35 “red air” and simulated surface-to-air threats. This let U.S. and Israeli F-35 pilots practice working together to defeat sophisticated enemy air defenses and fighters before striking ground targets.

That scenario closely mirrors what American and Israeli pilots may confront if Tehran acquires new air defenses and fighters from Moscow or Beijing. In a variety of real-world situations, F-35s would need to defeat Iranian air defenses and fighters to facilitate direct or standoff weapon strikes against ground targets.

This concern regarding growing Iranian military capability is hardly hypothetical.

Iran has already invested in modernized Russian air defense systems, such as the S-300. In 2019, Iran also sought to purchase the S-400, the highly capable Russian mobile surface-to-air missile system. Moscow reportedly rebuffed that request. But if the arms embargo is permitted to lapse, Moscow might relish the opportunity to sell Tehran the S-400 as well as fighters and other weapons.

The Russians are likely to find an eager customer in Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif visited Moscow twice in July. And Iranian Ambassador Kasem Jalali said explicitly Iran seeks “to enhance its defense capacities” by purchasing weapons from Moscow.

Beijing will not be idle either. Selling arms to Tehran would allow Beijing to build favor with energy-rich and strategically located Iran while simultaneously threatening U.S. interests in the Middle East. According to a July 22 New York Times report, Beijing and Tehran are looking to finalize a long-term strategic partnership agreement that “calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing.”

That is particularly problematic for Washington, Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi, since Beijing has developed some of the world’s most formidable anti-access area denial (A2AD) capabilities. If Beijing provides those A2AD capabilities to the Islamic Republic, it would dramatically heighten the risk to U.S. and Israeli forces.

As compared to older aircraft, the improved ability of the Israeli F-35s to confront these A2/AD threats by themselves or working with U.S. F-35s is a critical component of deterring Iranian aggression. In an era of great power competition, reliable and capable allies represent a leading asset for the United States.

Iranian President Rouhani has called on Russia and China to resist U.S. efforts to extend the arms embargo. Moscow and Beijing are likely to be glad to honor Rouhani’s request this week.

That will make the Enduring Lightning II exercise—and others like it—more important than ever. Perhaps future U.S.-Israel exercises will include the UAE.

Bradley Bowman is senior director for the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Maj. Shane Praiswater is a visiting military analyst. Views expressed or implied in this commentary are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air Force, the Defense Department, or any other U.S. government agency.