A US soldier points his gun towards an Afghan passenger at the Kabul airport in Kabul on August 16, 2021, as thousands of people mobbed the city’s airport trying to flee the group’s feared hardline brand of Islamist rule. (Wakil KOHSAR / AFP)

TEL AVIV: Israeli officials are nervously watching the situation in Afghanistan, with a belief that the collapse of the government over the weekend will enable Al-Qaida to renew its efforts to perform terror attacks against both American and Israeli targets around the world.

Defense sources here say that the feeling among the Taliban and Al-Qaida is that after defeating the US in Afghanistan, the “gate is wide open” to launch terror attacks from inside Afghanistan. One source added that the US should get ready to Al-Qaida attempt to perform terror acts against American “interests” in the very near future.

“There is no doubt that Al-Qaida will take advantage of the situation in Afghanistan to recruit more people and plan terror attacks” one of the sources said.

As of publication, Afghanistan’s capitol had been overrun, with the exception of the airport currently being protected by 2,500 American troops. The Pentagon announced Monday it would be surging more forces into the country in order to extract American citizens, with up to 6,000 expected; meanwhile, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of US Central Command, reportedly met with Taliban officials to discuss deconfliction during the withdrawal.

No official in Israel was ready to comment on record on the American hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, but off the record, very senior defense sources told Breaking Defense that this was a “black day,” one which will reflect how countries in the region feel about America’s promises.

“The way the US runs away and leaves a country to the atrocities of terror groups is a bad sign that will have major effects on some countries,” said one of the defense sources.

In private talks with top Israeli defense and political sources alike, the view was echoed that the US drawing down in the region and the fall of Afghanistan, combined with ongoing aggression from Iran and political instability in Lebanon, all tie together into a potential regional bonfire. One senior source even raised concerns that Jordan or Iraq “be thrown away in one well planned act of the extreme jihad.”

Several officials directly grumbled about the Biden administration’s handling of Afghanistan and the region writ large.

“What happened in Afghanistan is like spilling gasoline on a fire,” said one.

“The effect on the Middle East will be bad,” said Amos Yadlin, a retired Maj. Gen. who served as the Israeli Defense Force’s chief of military intelligence. “Every country in the region like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that considered itself an ally of the US understands now that it cannot rely on the US in a military crisis. This clear conclusion may result in a situation where these countries will enhance their defense relations with Russia and China.”

But, Yadlin noted, it’s possible that the fall of Afghanistan could create space for Israel to strengthen defense ties with countries who may be looking for a more localized partner.

In the meantime, Jerusalem needs to look to fortify its defenses, he added, with the expectation that Afghanistan could return to its pre-September 11th attacks status quo as a terrorism hub.

Iranian Concerns

As always when it comes to Israeli security concerns, Iran lurks in the background.

The Taliban, a Suuni hardliner group, and the Shiite Iranian government are no friends. But the US has previously accused groups within Iran of helping support the Taliban in order to create chaos for American interests in the region, and as Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan, it naturally has an interest in what happens in that country’s future.

Mordechai Kedar, an Israeli senior analyst on Islamic issues, told Breaking Defense that Iran will make a big push for influence in Afghanistan so that it will “call the shots” in the country.

“The situation is bad, very bad,” he said, adding that while Iran and the Taliban are not allies, certain Islamic groups in both countries may find common ground in targeting non-Islamic nations.

There is a growing sense of concern in Jerusalem that the Biden administration does not have a real handle on regional issues. “The hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, and not understanding the situation in Iran and the Middle East, may backfire as to the US interests ” one government source said.

As the situation in Afghanistan began to unravel last week, William Burns, the head of the CIA, visited Israel and was given a briefing about new Iranian president Ebrhaim Raisi.

During the briefings the head of the CIA was presented with updated data that Israeli sources say show Iran is using the ongoing nuclear talks to slow roll the US, the hard line that Raisi is dictating through people he appointed himself to key positions in Iran’s government, and of Iran’s move to consolidate control in Lebanon.

Sources told Breaking Defense that some of the facts presented to the CIA head “were surprising” and proved that Israel has “ears and eyes” in Iran.