The Pentagon has big work ahead of it in 2022, with the release of a new National Defense Strategy planned for early next year. (US Army/Sgt. 1st Class Marisol Walker)

WASHINGTON: What big changes can the Pentagon anticipate in 2022? To paraphrase James Carville, “it’s the National Defense Strategy, stupid.” 

The 2018 National Defense Strategy clearly articulated that China was the United States’ biggest strategic threat, and stated that the Defense Department must take action to modernize the force and regain its technical edge in order to deter and — if all else fails — win a conflict against Beijing. There was just one problem: The strategy never truly got implemented, as domestic politics and a global pandemic overtook plans to reform the military.

Now, about a year after President Joe Biden took office, the department is on track to release a new strategy in early 2022. The big questions: How are his administration’s defense priorities different from those of the Trump administration? What kind of rhetoric does the strategy contain pertaining to China, and what should the department do differently to deter and beat China?  What roles and objectives should the US have in the Middle East, now that forces have exited Iraq and Afghanistan?

[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2021 and look forward to what 2022 may hold.]

Finally, and most importantly, what does the department need to do to implement its strategy, and what changes to the military’s modernization plans are necessary to make that happen? One major tell will be the fiscal 2023 budget: Will the services advocate for substantial shifts, such as divesting force structure, canceling programs that no longer support US strategy, and starting new ones that do? Or will it be just more of the same? 

Earlier this month, Mara Karlin, who is performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, characterized the new strategy thusly: “We will in many ways focus on getting after the China challenge while ensuring that we are responsibly working with our closest allies and partners to deal with many of the other challenges we also see metastasizing and shifting and not going away.” 

Obviously, that statement doesn’t give a lot away, and the devil will be in the details. 

Two other major studies due to be released next year — the Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review — could also lay the groundwork for greater transformation, especially if the administration backs a reduction in US nuclear armaments or proposes delaying ongoing modernization efforts like the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program for replacing current intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Of course, all of that policy and strategy could be upended if Russia creates a more immediate geopolitical crisis by invading Ukraine, a move US intelligence sources have reportedly indicated could happen as soon as early next year. As of the writing of this story on Dec. 22, tensions are high, with The New York Times reporting that the US and UK have dispatched cyber experts to Ukraine, in an effort to blunt  cyberattacks the countries believe could be delivered by Russia in the near future. 

And with the Omicron variant of coronavirus spreading, the military will continue to be challenged to maintain readiness during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The services have begun kicking out servicemembers who have refused to get vaccinated, but it remains to be seen how aggressive the department will be in implementing a vaccination mandate for federal contractors; that order is currently in limbo after a federal judge issued an injunction, but several defense contractors — most notably Huntington Ingalls Industries —have said that they will not mandate the vaccine for all of its workforce.

Meanwhile, the Army on Dec. 21 announced it has developed a single vaccine that appears to be effective against all COVID variants. That could have huge implications, not just for the US military, but for populations worldwide. 

Another big priority for the department is the issue of climate change, which Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has called an “existential threat” for US national security. Over the past year, the Pentagon has put out several reports — such as the climate risk analysis and climate adaptation plan — laying out the effects of climate change on the military and putting forward recommendations on how to cut the department’s own carbon footprint. In 2023, we hopefully will see whether any of that analysis has teeth. 

Finally, the midterm elections could generate further turmoil in Congress that could make it even more difficult for lawmakers to pass the FY22 appropriations bill, move forward with the FY23 defense policy and budget bills and confirm the list of nominees for key defense leadership positions — where the Pentagon already has a number of nominees stalled out over partisan holds.

Republicans have shown they are effective at holding the line versus the Democrats razor-thin majority. With a strong chance to flip both chambers in November and members fleeing Washington to hit the campaign trail over the course of the year, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Congress works more effectively, and not less, than in 2021. 

2022 will set the stage for whether the Biden administration can actually make meaningful changes for the Pentagon’s budget and policy. No matter what decisions come out of the department, one thing is clear: Expect fireworks.