Lebanon’s military ‘repositioning’ itself as Israel invades – but for what?

BEIRUT — A day after the Lebanese prime minister suggested there was political willingness to deploy more of the Lebanese military to secure the southern border, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) announced it was “repositioning” what forces it had there already in response to Israel’s ground invasion.

The repositioning — to larger barracks and posts a little further north, according to expert observers — came as the LAF attempted to refute media reports that it was withdrawing from the south.

And while it may not be pulling out altogether, the move highlights the contrast between what might be expected of the country’s formal military and what it’s actually capable of doing when caught between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, the armed Iran-backed group that’s been the de facto power in much of Lebanon’s south for years.

“The LAF is concentrating its forces at company and battalion headquarters, effectively shifting its forces north by some [five to six kilometers],” analyst Aram Nerguizian told Breaking Defense. “To do otherwise would have made little tactical sense as those forces would have been unnecessarily exposed. The LAF will now maintain a concentrated force with the Litani River to its rear.”

What the military will do there as Israeli troops breach Lebanese territory remains to be seen, however.

Nerguizian, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the LAF has an “aspirational national security role centered on preserving the territorial integrity of Lebanon,” which could include taking “defensive actions against invading IDF [Israel Defense Forces] forces.” But, he said, considering how poorly Hezbollah has fared against the Israelis, any LAF action would be “costly in the extreme.”

“While it is technically feasible for the LAF to deploy more forces along the border, the army lacks the advanced military capabilities required to fully protect the area from incursions, particularly against a well-equipped adversary like Israel,” agreed Elie Elias, director of the Middle East Institute for Research and Strategic Studies (MEIRSS). “The LAF would need substantial reinforcements in air defense systems, advanced radar technologies, and armored vehicles, as well as support in intelligence capabilities to adequately secure the southern borders.”

The LAF would most likely avoid a direct fight with Israel, and retired Lebanese Brig. Gen. Andre Bou Maachar said it’s likely the US has already put pressure on Israel not to engage the military as it works to push back Hezbollah. (LAF troops have been killed by Israeli strikes before but are generally not thought to be intended targets.)

LAF will more likely do what it can to stabilize the situation as best it can with locals also caught in the crossfire.

“The conflict has and will continue to displace more mainly Shi’a IDPs [internally displaced persons] to other parts of the country. This will accentuate already high demographic, political, and sectarian tensions with risks ranging from tensions to open armed conflict. The LAF will work to mitigate those risks at all costs,” Nerguizian said.

But Bou Maachar said the LAF will likely play more of a key role later, when the fighting finally stops. They are expected, he said, “to have a significant role in the day after a ceasefire is reached, to implement 1701.”

That figure, 1701, is a reference to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the July 2006 Israeli war on Lebanon under the conditions that Israel withdraw its forces south of what’s known as the Blue Line of demarcation, while LAF and a multi-national group of peacekeepers dubbed United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will maintain peace to the north — excluding Hezbollah. But the resolution was never fully implemented, as Hezbollah never left the south.

But at least some Lebanese officials in the caretaker government have recently seen 1701 as a way forward. On Monday, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that Lebanon was ready to “implement Resolution 1701, establish a ceasefire, and deploy the army in the south.” (As Breaking Defense previously reported, that’s a move that the French have said they would support, going as far as to organize a conference dedicated to helping to modernize the LAF’s capabilities should the political willingness be there to send troops to the south.)

At the time of Mikati’s remarks, however, it was unclear how such a move might be received by Hezbollah, which is unlikely to welcome LAF troops to any territory it controls. And now that Israel has sent troops across the border, it’s unclear if Mikati would still support sending additional LAF troops.

“Hezbollah is unlikely to cede control over southern Lebanon to the LAF,” Elias said. “Therefore, any attempts to deploy the LAF effectively in the south would have to carefully navigate the complexities of Hezbollah’s influence and military dominance in the area.”

Bou Maachar suggested that if the war continues on its current trajectory and Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened, after a ceasefire the LAF could find a role in finally implementing 1701 as it was originally written up.

Nerguizian said that “over the long term, the government of Lebanon will need the LAF to be ready and able to restore order and fill any potential security vacuum in the SLS [South Litani Sector], if and when the opportunity presents itself.”

“The core question is what sort of enabling environment – politically in Lebanon, and at the geopolitical level – might emerge, and does that empower the LAF to extend the sovereignty of the government of Lebanon to the SLS? If the answer is yes, then capability requirements can be fleshed out fairly easily based on real world mission parameters,” he said. “If, however, there is no enabling environment, or if Hezbollah remains preeminent in the SLS in political terms, then the subject is a moot issue.”

In the meantime, villagers in South Lebanon told Breaking Defense that they have clearly heard for hours a mixture of artillery, surveillance drones and helicopters as the IDF pushes north.

“Last night was unlike anything seen before, way more intense than any scene in action movies,” one villager said.