Lockheed Martin Skunk Works concept art of a sixth-generation fighter
AFA: The Air Force’s internal study of its future fighter fleet is still awaiting approval by Secretary Frank Kendall, but initial findings have been shared with the Office of the Secretary of Defense as well as key lawmakers as the 2023 budget is being developed, senior officials said today.
The Air Force’s 2023 Program Objective Memorandum (POM) outlining its five year budget plan has been provided to OSD, Kendall told reporters on the margins of the Air Force Association’s annual Air, Space & Cyber conference.
And even though the results of the Tactical Aircraft (TacAir) study haven’t been finalized, Kendall expects them to be reflected in the 2023 POM.
“The TacAir study is coming to a close soon. I haven’t had a chance to review it yet. But I’m hoping it will be an input that informs this National Defense Strategy, and the ’23 POM and our plans going forward,” he said.
The Biden administration is in the midst of crafting a new NDS to replace that done in 2018 by the Trump administration. That effort is expected to be completed in January.
Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown explained that, in fact, the study won’t really ever be finalized as a set of numbers — numbers of aircraft and price tags — for development of the fighter fleet by 2030. Rather, it is somewhat of a rolling exercise that could change in future POMs as the threat, especially from China, evolves.
“We don’t want to come to a final answer on this,” he said during the press briefing. “We’ll come to a study and have that ready to plan with,” he said, and update as “facts and assumptions” on the ground change.
“We’re going to want to use this as a way to continue our analysis, not only for the upcoming POM, but future POMs as well, to ensure we’re on the right track,” he said.
The initial findings of the study, which led to Brown’s decision, announced in February, to downsize the service’s fleet from seven types of aircraft to four fighter jets plus the A-10 ground-attack plane.
The four fighter programs for the future are: the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), a sixth-generation fighter plus a family of unmanned aircraft; the F-35A fifth-gen fighter; the F-15EX; and either upgrades to or a ‘clean-sheet’ follow-on to the F-16, aimed at the homeland defense mission where a high-end fighter would be overkill.
Kendall is “asking the hard questions,” Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told reporters. “We’ll make good judgments going forward as to what those elements look like, and specifically the levels of those four or five elements that we’re going to need going forward.”
While he wouldn’t be drawn on specifics, Brown said that the 2023 POM would include “ranges” for the number of each of the five types of aircraft, or at least that that is what he has recommended.
“I think that is a good recommendation,” shot back Kendall, with a laugh.
Up to now, Congress has fought back against Air Force plans to divest older aircraft in order to help pay for future developments.
Kendall said that he and other leaders are working with Congress to explain the urgency for radical and rapid changes in the Department of the Air Force’s business practices. Further, he expressed interest in a “creative solution” that would create a package of divestment and modernization plans that would help reduce the pressure on individual lawmakers to come to the aid of industry and aircraft operations in their districts.
The concept was put forward by the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., Kendall said, describing it as a kind of Base Realignment And Closure (BRAC) deal for “legacy” force structure.
“BRAC is something of a dirty word,” Kendall said. “But it did provide a very viable mechanism to get around some of the political problems. So, I’m not sure exactly what form that would take at this point. But I think something like that would be of great interest.”
