Chinese navy sailors march in formation during a parade on October 1, 2019 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON: A majority of Americans view China has the biggest national security threat to the United States, while trust in the American military continues to erode, according the Reagan Institute’s annual National Defense Survey.

The poll found that 52% of Americans see China as a top threat, up from just under 40% in the February this year (the 2020 survey was delayed due to Covid-19). Just 14% of respondents said Russia was the biggest threat.

Fears about the Chinese military come amid alarms from top US government officials about the rising power’s investment in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, ongoing threats to Taiwanese sovereignty, and a test of a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) that deployed a hypersonic glide vehicle.

“So there we see kind of an alignment of sorts between where the American people see threats challenges … and where national security policy experts, of course, for a number of years now have identified China as a pacing threat,” said Roger Zakheim, director of the Reagan Institute, on a call with reporters.

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Reagan Institute’s annual poll asked about a myriad of nationals security issues, including the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the role of the US military in the world and top threats facing the country. The survey interviewed 2,523 people across the country between Oct. 25 and Nov. 7 and has margin of error of 2%, according to the institute.

The poll shows that just 40% of Americans place a “great deal” of trust in the US military, down from 70% in November 2018 and dropping 11% since February. Asked for the first time about the reason for their declining trust, the survey found that “seems to be more about a general negative sense than a predominate or precise reason,” though 13% cited faulted political leadership.

On Afghanistan, the poll revealed that 47% of Americans support the withdrawal of troops after 20 years of conflict, with 40% opposing. On the other hand, 48% believe that Taliban takeover of the country poses a major national security risk to the United States.

“Nonetheless, a majority of Americans (62%) say that, regardless of how they feel about the decision to withdraw troops, they disapprove of the way the withdrawal was handled,” the poll shows, referring to the chaotic withdrawal that saw Afghans climbing on the outside of transport planes and a bombing that claimed the lives of 13 servicemembers.

Overall, the poll shows an American public questioning the US’ role in the world. Forty-two percent said the US should be “more engaged and take the lead,” down from 51% in February, while 30% said it should be “less engaged” up from 27% in February. Meanwhile, about one-fifth said US engagement should depend on the scenario, up slightly from earlier this year. Interestingly, 41% of respondents said they believed the greatest threats to the US are internal, with just 25% arguing that the biggest threats are external — down 10 points since February.

While the public questions US involvement in the world, the 62% of respondents said they support the military’s overseas bases. Earlier in the week, the Pentagon’s Global Posture Review largely maintained the US current presence abroad. Meanwhile, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said that the service could use more bases in the Indo-Pacific.

The poll also asked respondents how the US should respond if China invaded Taiwan. While respondents were less opposed than months ago to a number of options, from sanctions to use of ground troops, for just about every scenario more people said they simply don’t know where they stood.

“The American people are really wrestling with what the US should do in the case of a Taiwan invasion scenario,” said Rachel Hoff, Reagan Institute policy director. “They’re not quite ready to move to support, but they’re moving away from opposition.”

But if the US were to get involved in a war overseas, only 42% have a “great deal” of confidence that the military could win a war. With the Chinese military building up its capabilities and US services in the midst of massive modernization efforts, 43% of respondents believe the US military is the “best in the world” and 45% think its “one of the best.”

Seventy-three percent of respondents said they feared the US falling behind China technologically, with 23% particularly worried about supply chain vulnerabilities and another 23% fearing China’s progress in artificial intelligence. Another 16% worried specifically about satellites.