Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin delivers a keynote at the Reagan National Defense Forum. (RNDF).
REAGAN NATIONAL DEFENSE FORUM: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is “very concerned” about the potential for a Russian incursion into sovereign Ukrainian territory, after multiple news outlets published reports that Moscow is planning a multi-front offensive into Ukraine in early 2022.
“They’ve invaded before, and as we look at the numbers of forces that are in the border region, as we look at some of the things that are occurring in the information space, as we look at what’s going on in the cyber domain, it really raises our concern,” Austin said during the Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday.
“We remain focused on this. We remain committed to helping Ukraine defend its sovereign territory,” he said. “And in terms of our concern, I think we’re very concerned.”
US intelligence sources told the Washington Post Friday that Russia is planning a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022, with about 175,000 troops involved. One source said the plans include “extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”
Russia has denied the allegations, calling the reports “malicious propaganda.”
Currently, Russia has deployed about 70,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, according to US estimates, though the Post notes that Ukrainian sources believe there could be as many as 94,000 Russian troops.
President Joe Biden is set to speak virtually with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has said Biden will restate American support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and detail its concerns with Russian military activities on the Ukrainian border during the call.
Asked about the upcoming meeting, Austin said that he’s hopeful that “there’s a lot of space here for diplomacy and leadership to work.”
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and as such is not included in the Article 5 provision that binds members to defend another member nation that is attacked.
Austin declined to comment on what course of action the United States could take if Russia invades Ukraine, stating only that it would ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself, citing past deliveries of lethal and nonlethal aid.
“You heard the president say yesterday that he’s looking at a number of initiatives, so I won’t get out ahead of my boss.”
Austin’s comments follow concerns raised by Army Chief of Staff James McConville, who spoke at the forum earlier on Saturday. “I’m not quite sure what they’re going to do,” McConville said of Russia. “But to me, that is a terrible impact on the ability and security of our European friends.”
Reaction From Previous Secretaries
Later in the day, former defense secretaries Leon Panetta (2011-2013) and Mark Esper (2019-2020) weighed in on the Ukraine situation.
Both men agreed that a strong signal needed to be sent to Putin, with Panetta saying “there’s no question this is a test. And Putin is trying to figure out if he can get away with it.”
“I think the Biden administration has to make very clear to Mr. Putin what the price will be if he does” take military action, Panetta said. “The only key right now is strong deterrence, and the way you establish deterrence is to say to Mr. Putin ‘if you do this, this is what we’re going to do to you.’ And lay it out, particularly in regards to cyber and the capability of cyber. I think we have to lay out that he has to pay a price.”
While Panetta did not expand on the idea of using cyber capabilities as a threat against Russia, Esper called for sending more arms to Ukraine, including Javelin missiles and logistical support. More importantly, Esper said, the US needs to get other countries in Europe involved.
“It can’t just be the United States helping Ukraine. We should lead, but we should look at all our NATO allies and get their participation as well,” Esper said. “We have to stand up to Putin. We cannot allow him to pull this off. If he does, it will not sate his appetite.”
