As Pelosi’s Taiwan visit draws Chinese warnings, Gen. Milley pledges protection

SYDNEY: In what is becoming a complex dance of expectations and threats, the US military’s top uniformed leader said the US would provide “military support” to Nancy Pelosi should she decide to visit Taiwan.

“We will do what is necessary to ensure a safe, safe conduct of their visit. And I’ll just leave it at that,” Gen. Mark Milley told a small group of reporters this morning at the end of the 24th Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense (CHODs) Conference held here for the last two days. “So what that results in we’ll have to wait and see.”

Several hours later, the South China Morning Post, based in Hong Kong, reported from Beijing that the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group had left Singapore earlier today and was steaming on a course that would take her in the direction of the Taiwan Strait. Since carrier movements, especially to an area as sensitive as the Taiwan Strait at a time like this, are always a key indicator of US power projection, it’s reasonable to assume  that Milley knew of the Reagan’s course when he answered the question about Pelosi.

President Joe Biden has said that the Pentagon is concerned at the prospect of a visit by Pelosi, who would be the first speaker of the House to visit the island state since Newt Gingrich did in 1997. The speaker is second in line to the US presidency and wields enormous power on Capitol Hill.

Milley noted that he had ordered a study of China’s actions in the South China Sea and other areas of the Pacific region, and experts found a significant increase — how much so he said was classified — in aggressive actions. The chairman said China’s activity “seems to imply that they want to bully or dominate” other nations. Speaking at CSIS Tuesday, senior DoD official Ely Ratner echoed Milley’s characterization of China’s “irresponsible behavior” and said it was “only a matter of time” before China caused a “major” incident.

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A spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense said Tuesday that if Pelosi visits Taiwan, it would be a serious violation of the one-China principle and said the Peoples Liberation Army would oppose what he called “Taiwan independence” secessionist actions. Chinese officials reportedly have delivered stern warnings to American officials regarding the visit.

China regards Taiwan as a runaway province and has vehemently stated time and again that Taiwan is an integral part of China. In the latest illustration of China’s attitude towards the island, Global Times, the reliably belligerent official English language newspaper, touted the performance of a new Chinese weapon, a TB-001 armed reconnaissance drone, which they said in a Wednesday story had circumnavigated Taiwan, possibly without being detected by the island’s military.

The paper reported that the performance “again showed the great military strength gap between the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan, and that the PLA has overwhelming advantages that can safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, analysts said.”

The Chinese have never forgotten when Bill Clinton sent the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait in 1995 to warn off China, which had been launching barrages of missiles around Taiwanese territory. Publicly, the Clinton administration said the carrier had to make the trip because of weather. But aircraft carriers rarely sail the area, which is tight quarters for such large vessels. The USS Kitty Hawk appears to be the last US carrier to have transited the strait, back in 2007. Regular US Navy ships do transit the straits quite frequently as part of the US effort to maintain the strait’s status as an international waterway.

When Clinton sent the Nimitz through, China had no aircraft carriers. Today, however, they can sail three, one of them a Chinese design that was built completely in China. The brand new Shandong sailed through the Taiwan Strait on March 22, without any aircraft. For at least part of that transit, the USS Ralph Johnson, an Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyer, shadowed the Chinese carrier. The aircraft carrier capability is doubtless a key reason Global Times made the reference to its supposed “overwhelming advantages” over Taiwan.

But back in the US, Pelosi’s visit has attracted strong support from both Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have long been associated with bolstering Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression. But the Democratic chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Adam Smith, also spoke out strongly in support of Taiwan. “I don’t think we should let China dictate something like this,” Smith said. “Nancy Pelosi is the speaker of the House, she’s the most powerful person in the country. If she wants to go visit Taiwan, she ought to be able to do that.”

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Beyond Pelosi’s visit, tensions with China are high as it has argued, in a mirror image of the Russian leader’s lie that NATO surrounded Moscow thus forcing his invasion of Ukraine, that the United States is trying to build a Pacific NATO. For example, Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his annual news briefing in March to declare that the “real goal” of America was to create Asia’s answer to the alliance. Breaking Defense asked Milley and the head of the Australian Defense Force, Gen. Angus Campbell, how concerned they were that China seemed to be pursuing a similar path on Taiwan to the one Putin has in Ukraine.

“There is no intent by anyone that I’m aware of, quote unquote, surrounding China, or doing something that would provoke China. No one is aggressing against China, and no one conducted an aggression against Russia,” Milley replied, calling Putin’s argument and that of the China “a false narrative.” Campbell agreed with Milley.

At the press conference, Campbell was asked about the progress of the AUKUS effort to help Australia build eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The Labor government here has said it will make a decision by March next year about how the Aussies will proceed. Campbell noted there are several bodies inside Australia, as well as in the UK and US, trying to hammer out how Australia can build the regulatory and technical enterprise necessary to support building and operating the subs. “It’s just a little early,” he said, to discuss what’s coming.