(L to R) Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israeli far-right lawmaker and leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish power) party, and Bezalel Smotrich, Israeli far-right lawmaker and leader of the Religious Zionist Party, attend a rally with supporters in the southern Israeli city of Sderot on October 26, 2022. (GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP via Getty Images)
TEL AVIV — Israel’s election this week may result in shock waves that will force the US to rethink some of its traditional relations with Israel — including on the defense side, an area usually insulated from political shifts.
After five elections in three and a half years, Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to return to the prime minister’s seat with partners that could make it very hard for him to keep the traditional relations with the US and Europe.
Aside from Netanyahu, it appears there are two significant winners in Israel’s legislative election in 2022: Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The two men have previously declared that they intend to demand very senior positions in the new government — internal security minister and defense minister, respectively, two key roles that would put them in direct contact with the US on security issues.
The two men are seen as controversial figures, both in Israel and in Washington. Smotrich has a history of inflammatory comments about Arabs, while US officials are indicating they may outright refuse to work with Ben-Gvir, who in 2007 was convicted of inciting racism and supporting a group considered a terrorism organization. “He says he no longer advocates expulsion of all Palestinians – just of those he deems traitors or terrorists,” a Reuters report summed up. “That, he adds, should include Jews disloyal to the country. He also champions capital punishment and looser open-fire regulations for troops.”
A first open indication of the concern in Washington came in the form of a statement made by US State Department spokesman Ned Price, who expressed hope that Israeli officials will continue to “uphold the shared democratic values of the two countries.”
Price’s statement appears to be a response to the rise of the far-right Religious Zionism – Jewish Power party, of which both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are members. The election results show the party as the third-largest in the new Knesset, which has many left-leaning and liberal Israelis concerned for the future of their nation.
The two extreme-right politicians managed to win 14 seats out of the total 120 in the Israeli parliament, following a campaign where they called for the annexation of the West Bank, changes to the judiciary’s functions, and vehement hostility to any territorial concessions to the Palestinians. The two took full political advantage of a large crime wave and record number of shootings among Arabs living in towns and villages.
In a Nov. 2 briefing, Price elaborated, saying “this is a partnership that has always been founded on our shared interests, but importantly our shared values. This is what makes this relationship so strong — and what has made it so strong since Israel’s independence to the present day ”
This statement followed a comment earlier in the day by US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides that said it is still too early to draw any conclusions about the makeup of the upcoming government — but that he looks forward to cooperating with whoever holds that position to advance the shared values and interests of the US and Israel.
“I suggest to listen to the voices coming out of Washington, in very low tones but are without any doubt very indicative of the American reaction to the new Israeli government and its policy about issues of high interest to the US,” Amos Gilead, a former top officer in the Israeli military, told Breaking Defense.
Professor Eitan Gilboa, a specialist on American issues at the Bar Ilan university and a senior researcher in the Jerusalem center for strategy and security, told Breaking Defense that any extreme policy of the new Israeli government will badly harm the relations between Israel and the US.
“In the US, Ben Gvir is considered a very right extremist and his actions in the Israeli government may affect the close homeland security coordination between the two counties,” Gilboa predicted. He noted that while the FMF agreement with Israel is valid until 2028, the US Congress has the ability to approve the annual grant each year.
“In the past, Israel asked for extra funding for additional interceptors of the Iron Dome system, and one billion dollars were approved in spite of [some political] opposition” in Congress, he noted. “In the new situation, such urgent help requests may not be approved.”
No Israeli official was ready to comment on the possible US reactions to the new government, which is expected to be formed in the coming days.
Potential Tension Points
There are a number of major issues that can become harsh clashes between the new Israeli government and the US administration.
Israeli sources said there is an expectation of right-wing pressure in the new government to annex the West Bank, an act explicitly against the position of the White House. Another issue is the demand of the right-wing extremists to allow full freedom of prayer for Jews on the temple mount in Jerusalem, a site that is one of the holiest sites for Islam and for Jews. The prayers today are controlled to avoid clashes with Muslims, but the two expected ministers have previously demanded a new arrangement that will open the site for unrestricted prayers of Jews.
In both those cases, the efforts from Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are poised to inflame tensions between Jews and Muslims in the country, potentially setting of conflicts that could lead to greater military action against the Palestinian population.
Another item to watch is the maritime agreement, mediated by the US and just signed on Oct.27, between Israel and Lebanon. The maritime accord put an end to the territorial dispute at the eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea, creating an agreement on the boundary lines for gas and oil development in the EEZ of Israel and Lebanon.
The agreement was signed in spite of criticism by Netanyahu that it must be approved in the Knesset. And during the campaign, the two extreme-right politicians called for the cancelation of the agreement, saying it came about only because of US pressure and Israeli should not have given away parts of its territory.
Israeli defense sources expressed concern to Breaking Defense that the fact Netanyahu’s close ties with former president Donald Trump and his tacit support for Trump against then-candidate Biden may “pour gasoline” on the above-mentioned demands.
Notably, in a meeting with Netanyahu in September, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a staunch admirer of Israel, reportedly warned Netanyahu that inviting extremists like Ben-Gvir would potentially damage relations between their nations.
Of note, however: the US is just days away from its own Congressional election, and if Democrats lose control of one or both houses, Netanyahu may find himself with a friendlier Congress to deal with. During his previous stint as PM, Netanyahu closely aligned himself with the Republican party, to the point of seemingly advocating for the GOP over the part of current US president Joe Biden.
If Republicans take over, “Netanyahu may face a new reality in DC when asking for support on critical issues for Israel,” one Israeli defense source predicted.
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