Czech Republic President Petr Pavel (left) told the NATO Heads of State Summit that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine could happen by the end of the year. (Petr Pavel on Twitter)
Updated, 7/11/23 at 9:23am ET with comments from Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius. Also updated 7/21/23 at 10:01am ET to clarify attribution for a quote.
VILNIUS — Czech Republic President Petr Pavel opened up today about division within NATO over the possibility of Ukraine joining the alliance once war with Russia ends, saying “several countries” are hesitant about accession plans currently in discussion for Kyiv.
All allies are expected to approve an agreement before the end of the week that commits them to support Ukraine’s entrance into the alliance, but the exact wording of any text, a timeline for accession and whether certain conditions should be tied to the membership application continue to threaten progress.
Pavel, who previously served as chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said that it was his “wish” to see Ukraine’s accession process start after the war ends and added that in the interim Ukraine should be offered “encouragement and assurances” by allies that membership will be eventually offered, on top of continued military and financial aid to fight Russia.
However, there remains “some reservation from several countries” over the accession process potentially commencing after the war, according to Pavel.
“Let’s see what happens in the coming days,” noted Pavel, hinting that consensus might still be found on how to manage the membership question. “Ukraine needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel, it needs to feel motivated that one day it will be welcomed into our [NATO] family.”
Germany does not appear to hold any such reservations, and stands behind a future decision to “quickly” have Ukraine join the alliance once the war ends, said defense minister Boris Pistorius. He added that “you cant really negotiate membership” while the war continues.
In terms of how the war could end, Pavel predicted that the conditions for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could arrive by the end of the year, largely based on the deterioration of frontline conditions and geopolitical developments.
“Whatever is achieved by the end of this year [based on Ukraine’s counteroffensive], will be the baseline for negotiation,” he said.
“We have to see a realistic window of opportunity that will more or less close by the end of this year, not only because of winter conditions, but also because of upcoming elections in Ukraine, Russia and the United States. We will also see another decline in willingness to massively supportive Ukraine with more weapons.” (Zelenksy reportedly said Ukrainian elections would be suspended until the end of hostilities.)
Assessing the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, he noted that the pushback of Russian forces has not been as effective as hoped because of a lack of air power and ammunition. Offering a more positive outlook for Kyiv, Pavel did suggest that Ukraine has “still not committed major forces” to the counteroffensive, and that should happen over the course of the summer.
“Ukraine is definitely much more motivated, they are better equipped with more modern equipment,” he explained. “Unfortunately, with far too many types of equipment which creates a lot of logistical challenges. They don’t have enough mine breaching equipment.”
Pavel also warned against the Czech Republic public listening to and being persuaded by “some voices being fed by Russian propaganda,” which are seemingly offering up false hope. That message comes just months after anti-government protesters in Czech Republic called for an end to military aid to Ukraine and amid Prague being rocked by high inflation.
Pavel said it would be “nonsense” to think, “once we stop providing Ukraine military assistance, the war will be over and we can go back to normal, restoring economic relations with Russia and getting back cheap gas and oil.”
