AFA 2024 — Despite China and Russia’s pledges of a “no limits” partnership and a “new era” of cooperation, the top US air commander in the Indo-Pacific isn’t quite buying it, saying there do, in fact, appear to be limits and that it’s more akin to a “partnership of convenience.”
“In terms of the exercises between [China] and Russia, I do see that there are potential limits to that cooperation,” Pacific Air Forces Commander Gen. Kevin Schneider said in a roundtable with reporters at the Air and Space Forces Association Air, Space and Cyber conference today. “Politically, it is unclear to me their long-term goals and objectives other than to counter what the United States and allies and partners are doing.”
He said he “would describe [their cooperation] a little bit more as a partnership of convenience, vice a deep-seated connection the way that we have a connection of values with our allies and partners.”
In the time since declaring their partnership just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Beijing and Moscow have sought to deepen military ties, with the West accusing China of being a “decisive enabler” in Russia’s ongoing war against Kyiv. Russia and China have since launched a joint, world-spanning military exercise that includes air and naval drills, which Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly said was underway “in the context of growing geopolitical tensions.”
Schneider said today it’s too soon to offer assessments of the exercises and that full intelligence readouts would be available later.
Beijing’s Aggression Holds Opportunities For US
Outside the Moscow connection, one key US ally in the region, the Philippines, has also had to grapple with escalating tensions with China, most recently culminating in events like when Chinese vessels rammed Philippine ships. Echoing comments from Gen. Romeo Brawner, chief of staff of the Philippines armed forces, Schneider slammed Beijing’s alleged “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive” activity that he said is conversely driving more countries to cooperate with the US.
“Allies and partners around the region are seeing with incredibly clear eyes how these challenges, how these impingements on sovereignty, how these these attacks in the diplomatic and information space are affecting them,” he said. “More and more doors are being opened across the region and the world, as like-minded allies and partners continue to find opportunities to do more together.”
Washington and Beijing recently wrapped the latest meeting of a regular security summit, where US officials have said they directly raise concerns on Chinese activity in the South China Sea, among other topics. Besides a run-in with the Philippines, which the US is treaty-bound to defend, officials have said they are concerned that China may attempt to invade Taiwan in the coming years, in turn inviting a US response.
Officials say open lines of communication like these talks offer a critical venue to lower the risk of conflict, though the Air Force’s top civilian warned today that the risk of war between the US and China only rises as Beijing’s military prowess grows.
“I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not.” said Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall. “But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing, and will continue to do so.”
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