Ground Based Strategic Deterrent concept art (Northrop Grumman)

AFA: The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) program to replace the Air Force’s aging Minuteman III missiles is entering a new stage of development, as it begins to pass through a series of critical design reviews (CDRs) and aims for a 2023 test flight.

“We’ve entered into the next big phase, what we call ‘CDR season,’ Greg Manuel, vice president and general manager of prime contractor Northrop Grumman’s Strategic Deterrent Systems division, told Breaking Defense Tuesday.

Speaking on the margins of the annual Air Force Association Air, Space & Cyber conference here, Manuel said that the GBSD has a significant amount of moving parts, not just the missile itself, that each require a CDR.

Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander of the 20th Air Force responsible for the US ICBM force, told the Mitchell Institute in August that the effort to modernize the force is much wider than just building a new ICBM. It also includes upgrading test facilities, modernizing launch ranges and revamping training for operators, he said.

This is because the Minuteman III missiles, their silos, command and control system, etc., were first fielded in 1963, and while they have been upgraded a good deal since, they still use largely analog, not digital, communications systems and outdated computer operating systems. For example, operators to this day sport 1980s pink, push button, analog telephones during test launches.

The testing operations center for Minuteman III ICBM test launches at Vandenberg AFB in California.

GBSD already has successfully passed through “a couple” of CDRs for subsystems that “had a lower technology readiness” and needed to be matured, Manuel said. “Those were the ones that we focused our attentions on to bring the technology and reduce the risks,” he explained.

Northrop Grumman currently is planning a first flight test at the end of 2023, Manuel said.

“And then we’ll go through a series of flight test programs, nominally, one quarter over the course of our development test program,” he said. “But at the same time, we will be not only just testing the missile, but we’ll also be testing all the infrastructure we’re designing. We’ll be testing all of the new command control associated with that, that new infrastructure, we’ll be testing the cyber hardness — the capability for adversaries to break into our system — which is important. With a digital weapon system like this, it is significantly important and there’s a lot of effort associated with program protection.”

If everything goes well, the company intends to begin production in 2026. In order to so, Manuel noted, the company will need to “start our advanced procurement deployment activities in 2024” for the first launch facility.

Up to now, Northrop Grumman has been extremely tight-lipped about the GBSD program, but officials now are feeling confident about where the effort is and where it is going. They also remain sanguine about budgetary support going forward, including in Congress, despite the program’s gigantic price tag.

The $13.3 billion GBSD contract, announced last September by the Air Force, covers engineering, manufacturing and development (EMD) of the new ICBMs through 2029. But as first reported by Bloomberg News, the Pentagon last year estimated the total cost of the program to be about $264 billion, including long-term sustainment. Acquisition costs alone are expected to top $110 billion.

“The fact is that all the last four NPRs have all supported the triad, and the land-leg of triad and ICBMs,” Manuel said, referring to the Nuclear Posture Reviews conducted by different presidential administrations. (DoD is currently in the midst of a new one.) “The program started in the Obama administration. …  Clearly, the Trump administration supported it. And we see no reason why the Biden administration, and those in Congress, will not support fully funding GBSD.”

DoD leaders have also been enthusiastic about GBSD’s progress. Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, on Monday told the AFA conference that the service is “pretty happy with the direction” of the program.