Air Force photo

Airmen install a new cable run on an aging Minuteman III missile.

AFA: The fundamental budget challenge facing the Air Force is the “nuclear bow wave” of spending required to modernize its nuclear force structure, with a “major danger” that those costs will make all the service’s other modernization plans untenable, said Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, who leads future force development.

“There’s no free money, right, so it has to come from somewhere,” he told reporters during the annual Air Force Association conference here. “But if it comes from the top line of the Department of the Air Force, and frankly the Department of Navy, it’s going to crowd out other things, other investments, and it’s going to be very difficult to have a modern Air Force and a modern Space Force, a modern Navy, and recapitalize the nuclear triad. That’s where we are right now.”

The Congressional Budget Office in May 2021 estimated the price tag for the total DoD triad modernization effort at $405 billion from 2021 through 2030, up from the $238 billion it estimated in 2019. This ginormous price tag does not include spending by the Energy Department to build the nuclear warheads that would be carried by DoD’s ICBMs, bombers and subs.

Nonetheless, recapitalization of land-based nuclear missiles and the bomber fleet simply cannot wait, said Hinote, whose formal title is deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements.

“The evidence is overwhelming. We have deferred the modernization of the nuclear force to the point we can’t defer it anymore,” he said.

While there has been some talk of a possible separate nuclear “modernization fund,” Hinote said he didn’t have a “good answer” on the whether or not Congress or DoD might see a path towards creating such a new budget pool.

“One of the discussions that we have to have with our stakeholders is, is it either/or? Because if it’s either/or, we have to make some pretty hard decisions,” he said. “Or do we have to find a way to make it both/and? And if, if we can make it both/and that would be the preferred way forward for us.”

DoD is in the middle of a new Nuclear Posture Review, at the same time the White House is undertaking a nuclear policy review. But so far, Hinote said, there has been no indication that there will be fundamental changes — for example such as abandoning the triad. Indeed, there is strong continuity across the board with regards to defense strategy, he explained.

“I have not seen yet a major departure from the previous guidance. The previous guidance was clear, China is the key. It’s the thing that you’ve got to get right,” he said.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who has repeatedly stressed the growing threat from China during his short time in office, raised the alarm even higher in his speech this morning.

“China’s pursuing a significantly expanded inventory of nuclear weapons, especially silo-based ICBMs,” he said. “Whether intended or not, China’s acquiring a first strike capability.”

Beijing, it should be noted, continues to insist that its nuclear forces, which currently are much smaller than those of the US and Russia, are designed to serve as a minimal deterrent to nuclear attack.

The good news, Hinote explained, is that both the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), designed to replace the elderly Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles and the B-21 bomber development programs are progressing at the desired pace.

“We’re pretty happy with the direction of the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program and you’ll hear more later on this morning about the B-21 program, but it’s going well, too,” he said.

Kendall affirmed Hinote’s assessment of the B-21, noting that there are now five B-21 Raiders on the production line at Northrop Grumman (a previously unreleased news nugget.)