Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellite. (USAF)
WASHINGTON: With the Senate Appropriations Committee’s recent release of its fiscal 2022 defense spending bill, all four congressional committees responsible for overseeing the Space Force have now smacked the service’s management of the multi-billion dollar Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) missile warning satellite program.
In its budget released last week, SAC cut $343 million from Space Force’s $2.4 billion request for the program, citing in part “unjustified” cost growth. The move comes despite public assurances from Space Force officials that everything is on track.
Todd Harrison, long-time space budget guru at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Breaking Defense that many details of the program are classified, making it difficult to understand what exactly is broken, if anything.
“It doesn’t all add up — what the program office has said, and what we’re hearing from Congress and GAO,” he said.
On the other hand, he explained that there has been a disconnect between what DoD — via first Air Force Space Command when the effort was launched in 2018 and now Space Force — told Congress regarding development goals and the service’s planned budget allocations.
It seems that at this point, he said, “folks are realizing, ‘Oh, this program might have been sold as being faster and easier,'” than it actually ever had a chance of being.
Byron Callan, long-time defense industry financial analyst at Capital Alpha, said that while he didn’t “have a good read” on what exactly is happening with Next-Gen OPIR, in general if similar concerns have shown up “across multiple committees and GAO, I would think it’s a reasonable assumption that there’s some smoke somewhere there.” And that, he added, then leads to the question of “how big is the fire.”
The program is designed to replace the current Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellites first developed in the 1990s with upgraded capabilities including improved anti-jamming.
In total, Space Force now plans to spend some $14.4 billion through 2025 to develop Next-Gen OPIR, and is using Section 804 Middle Tier acquisition authorities to push rapid acquisition by using agile development methodologies that iterate increasing levels of capability over time.
In addition to the budget knock, SAC ordered Space Systems Command (SSC), which is responsible for Space Force acquisition, to create in next year’s budget request separate funding lines for each of Next-Gen OPIR’s three separate development efforts now funded en bloc: a set of three satellites in Geosynchronous Orbit, some 36,000 kilometers in altitude, being built by Lockheed Martin; two satellites in an elliptical orbit over the Earth’s poles, being built by Northrop Grumman; and a ground system called Future Operationally Resilient Ground Evolution (FORGE), spearheaded by Raytheon Technologies.
The bill’s explanatory language notes that in 2020 and 2021 “significant funding was realigned between the programs without prior notification to the congressional defense committees made possible by their consolidation within one single program element. Therefore, the Committee establishes new budget lines for each of these efforts and directs the Secretary of the Air Force to submit the fiscal year 2023 budget submission with distinct budget lines and program elements for the ground, polar, and GEO efforts.”
The explanatory language echoes concerns from the House Appropriations Committee (HAC), and the Senate and House Armed Services Committees responsible for setting defense policy — as well as Government Accountability Office (GAO) — about what they see at best as a lack of transparency, or at worst deliberate budgetary shenanigans designed to obscure cost or schedule problems.
Next-Gen OPIR, GAO said in its September report on the program, “faces significant technical and managerial challenges … that are likely to delay the initial launch. Significant schedule delays typically result in cost increases. Although officials are aware of schedule risks, they continue to present an on-track timeline and stable cost estimates in reports to congressional committees.”
SAC’s House counterparts were particularly direct in their July report accompanying HAC’s draft 2022 defense spending bill, slamming Space Force for painting a too-rosy picture of the program, and stressing that a study by DoD’s Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) has reached the same conclusions.
SSC officials responsible for the program, however, have up continued to insist that Next-Gen OPIR is on schedule and on budget.
Col. Brian Denaro, SSC’s Development Corps program executive officer, told Breaking Defense following GAO’s critical report: “Next Gen OPIR program continues to deliver within cost, schedule and performance targets established at the outset of the program. To date, the Next-Gen OPIR program has hit every major milestone in support of an ambitious, but achievable launch date.”
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