WASHINGTON: With the Space Force hitting its second birthday, US Space Command up and running and a clear focus from Congress on national security in orbit, it’s impossible to ignore that the US increasingly sees space as a domain of potential conflict. The question then becomes: who is the greatest challenger to American interests?
As part of the first ever Breaking Defense Military Space Survey, we asked that question of our respondents, drawn from inside the government, industry and outside close observers. Perhaps not surprising, given the tone and tenor in Washington these days, 78% of respondents picked China as the greatest threat to American interests in space, with Russia in a far second at 17.3%; North Korea (2%), Iran (1.2%) and India (1.2%) also received some first place votes.
Notably, this poll was run before Russia launched a public ASAT test in November, sending debris scattering that will threaten international satellites for up to three more years. And a group of experts convened by Breaking Defense to discuss the results of the survey all agreed that while China is a looming challenger, Russia is actually the peer competitor the US should most worry about — at least for the moment.
In terms of technical threats to space operations, 35% of respondents listed cyber as the greatest concern, easily outpacing the next closest response, domestic politics, at 22%. That concern jumps to 47% when looking just at members of the Defense Department — those who are actively involved in day-to-day operations and may have a better sense of the kind of cyber activities other nations are engaging in.
RELATED: Click here for a set of infographics related to threats in space
In the following clip, we asked our panel — Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation, Makena Young of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Rosalind Lewis of Aerospace Corp and Breaking Defense’s own space expert, Theresa Hitchens — to weigh in on the issue.