US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the joint press conference with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Minister of Defense Richard Marles and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong after the 2022 Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations. (DoD photo by Chad McNeeley)
SYDNEY — Australia and the United States on Tuesday announced the extraordinary commitment “to invite Japan to integrate into our force posture initiatives” on the island continent, an increase of military ties between the three nations in the Pacific.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also pledged that the US “will not allow” a capability gap to appear between Australia’s Collins class sub retirement planned for 2039 and the deployment of its first nuke powered attack subs, a bold statement without much detail behind it.
Austin’s comments came out of yesterday’s AUSMIN conference in Washington, an annual meeting of the defense and foreign ministers from the US and Australia. Japan and Australia have made remarkable commitments over the last few years to work much more closely together as they warily watch what has been an increasingly bellicose China, and yesterdays announcement appears to take that relationship even further.
Austin also pledged the US would increase its rotations of bombers and troops to Australia, though he conceded he had no details.
“That includes rotations of bomber task forces, fighters, and future rotations of US Navy and US Army capabilities that will also expand our logistics and sustainment cooperation,” he said. “That will deepen our inter-operability and create more agile and resilient capabilities.”
In a final AUSMIN statement, the two countries said they committed to “identify priority locations in Australia to support enhanced U.S. force posture with associated infrastructure, including runway improvements, parking aprons, fuel infrastructure, explosive ordnance storage infrastructure, and facilities to support the workforce.
Charles Edel, Australia chair at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, cautioned that the “proof is in the pudding” for these commitments.
“Most noteworthy I think were the announcements supporting the rotation of more regular and more robust air assets in northern Australia, strengthened U.S. land and maritime presence, greater training activities with other key partners such as the Japanese, and the build-out of the necessary supporting logistics, infrastructure, and fuel and weapons storage facilities,” wrote Edel in an email, “This is all welcome, but the proof is in the pudding and will really revolve around how quickly they bring some of these sizeable commitments online, how many resources both sides are willing to throw at these challenges, how quickly they can fold others into their efforts. And, perhaps most challenging, whether they can figure out a way to remove bureaucratic and legislative barriers to closer cooperation.”
Of course, any discussion between Australia and the US in 2022 has to touch on the AUKUS agreement, which also includes the United Kingdom, and its goal of getting nuclear-powered submarines into Australian hands. Austin’s promise of avoiding a capability gap for the Aussies was general, but will certainly not be welcomed by South Korea and France, who have both encouraged Australia to buy conventional subs to bridge the Collins capability gap.
One option for how the US could help Australia was floated by Rep. Rob Wittman, a Virginia Republican who is one of the strongest voices on the Hill when it comes to seapower.
“What I believe the [US] Navy needs to do is, to say [when Australia’s] Collins class finishes the end of its lifecycle, we are going to, in the next Virginia class that’s built, designate that to the Australian AOR. And we’re going to dual-crew it with Australian sailors and US sailors. And we’re going to dual-command it with mission planning with Australian forces and US forces,” Wittman told Breaking Defense over the weekend. “So it’ll be a submarine that operates in their AOR like an Australian submarine. It won’t belong to Australia, but it’ll still be an asset that they have that element of control with. And I think that we can do that.”
In a follow-up comment Wednesday, Wittman added “If the United States decides to support Australia in their submarine construction, such support cannot be at the expense of the US imperative to reach 66 attack submarines, at a construction rate of at least 2 Virginia-class submarines per year.”
Following the AUSMIN meeting the officials agreed broadly about the need to make it easier for Australia to buy US weapons. Although it is ostensibly part of the United States National Industrial Base, a status similar to that of Canada and the United Kingdom, industry and government sources here say Australia has a long way to go before it gets the approvals needed in the volume and speed which it will require to build advanced nuclear subs, as it simultaneously builds the naval yards and maintenance facilities it will need.
“We’ll also continue to find ways to further integrate our defense industrial bases in the years ahead,” Austin said at today’s press conference.
“Overall,” Edel said, “I think this was a fairly robust AUSMIN that underscored just how important the America-Australian alliance has become to both countries — and highlighted how much more work they both need to do.
“Lots of encouraging developments in development cooperation, climate change initiatives, and digital architecture funding. And especially important was the decision to begin pre-positioning munitions and fuel in northern Australia.”
The Australians are next on their way to Japan for consultations after the first meeting of the three AUKUS defense ministers, including UK Secretary of State for defense, Ben Wallace, since the group was announced.
