Whether Iran’s ‘hypersonic’ weapon is real or not, Israel has to plan to react: Experts

JERUSALEM — On June 6, Iranian media blasted out the announcement of what Iran claimed was a hypersonic missile. Images showed a black missile with the name Fattah and the event included a speech by Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi, a clear signifier that Tehran wanted eyeballs on the weapon.

Since the unveiling, Iran has sought to capitalize on the announcement by analyzing the missile’s capabilities in pro-government media such as Fars News and Tasnim News, and has been measuring global reactions to the missile’s unveiling. On June 13 Iran’s media published articles castigating Israel’s “inaction” in the face of the news and pondering with the US THAAD system or Israel’s Arrow air defense system could stop the missile.

The media effort is part of the regular tit-for-tat messaging between Tehran and Jerusalem. But what stands out when talking with experts within Israel is that, while there is no clear agreement about whether this Fattah is just a media ploy, there is a sense the defense establishment has to at least respect the possibility of this weapon being real — or at least, respect the overarching threat of hypersonic weapons.

Broadly speaking, hypersonic missiles are considered to be weapons that fly at speeds greater than Mach 5. However, they come in different types and designs and also may perform differently in terms of their ability to maneuver. In other words, Iran may well have a “hypersonic” weapon on its hands, but the threat vector it creates is much more dependent on the maneuverability of the weapon — information that is unavailable at the moment.

It’s a clear focus globally. In Ukraine the Russian use of air-launched hypersonic missiles has not been a game changer for Moscow, and in fact saw one of their weapons shot down by a Patriot air defense. But in the Pacific, Chinese and North Korean hypersonic initiatives, which involve glide vehicles flying at lower altitudes, have been seen as an emerging threat. And the US is among the Western countries trying to figure out how best to address the threat.

Notably, on June 14, Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems announced that it had developed a missile called Sky Sonic as a “response to the growing threat of hypersonic missiles.” Obviously that weapon was in development before the Fattah reveal, a sign of the investment Israeli firms are already making in the technology.

Is The Iranian Hypersonic Threat Real?

The video showing off Fattah certainly raises some questions. The first part shows a camera attached to the outside of the missile, but then the video switches to animation of what the missile is supposed to do when it leaves the atmosphere and re-enters. Which is to say, there is no real proof the threat is in existence.

Among those skeptical of Iran’s claim is Amos Yadlin, a former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate who is the President and Founder of MIND Israel, a non-profit advisory team integrated in the Israeli national security decision-making process.

“In our experience there is a significant gap between its declarations and the actual performance of the systems it develops,” Yadlin said. “It is hard to assume that the Iranians have overcome problems that the Americans are still facing and it seems that the Iranians’ use of the term ‘hypersonic’ refers to the low end of the field … Moreover, Iranians are known to often prefer to shorten research and development processes and to compromise on performance for propaganda and strategic communication purposes.”

Yadlin noted that a “hypersonic weapon is very difficult and expensive to develop and even the three major powers (US, Russia and China) failed in many of its tests…The Russian launches of the Kinzhal missile in Ukraine were not successful in most cases, and recently the American air defense Patriot system intercepted missiles that were claimed to be hypersonic – which makes it doubtful that they reached the high spectrum of hypersonic speed.”

Uzi Rubin, the founder and first director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, who is currently at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, noted that the initial data from the video and announcement Iran put online is meager. He characterized the Iranian news of the missile as similar to a movie release, with the production values to boot. “There deterrence is deterrence through transparency. So they show it off.”

And yet, “What they showed seem to be full scale models and an animated video of the concept…the concept is elegant and there is no reason why it should not work. It’s impossible to judge from their hitherto released material how close they are to implementation.”

Rubin also noted this is not the first “hypersonic” weapon claimed by Iran. “The previous one was called ‘Zulfikar’, with an atmospheric skipping reentry vehicle. However the RV [Re-entry] of the Zulfikar was not powered, the new Fattah RV is powered by a small solid propellant motor probably derived from their space program.”

Tal Inbar, a senior research fellow at the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, who has followed missile and UAV programs of various countries for 25 years, says that the images and video from Iran show “a true hypersonic missile.” However, he notes that it’s not one of the classic hypersonic weapons that have been discussed recently, such as China’s DF-17; rather Iran put the weapon on top of a solid rocket motor inside the back of a re-entry vehicle.

“By doing so they solve a problem because if you are coming back from space and skip the atmosphere you pay with loss of velocity and lose altitude, but with this new design you don’t lose either.” He calls this innovative, but also a “poor man’s missile.”

Inbar believes the impact portion of the video, that appears to show a missile impacting a target is a real impact because Iran has proven its ability to conduct precision missile strikes in the past. “The most important part is the re-design of the reentry vehicle. [I have been] watching since 1998, I never saw disinformation or lies about the missiles. In missiles, what we see is what they have and no exaggeration in capabilities in range and speed,” Inbar said.

Iran’s extensive and historical missile program often has origins in missiles from the Soviet Union, North Korea or China, but Inbar sees this as “a new category in hypersonic and 100 percent Iranian design nothing like that in N. Korea or Russia or China.” He also says the threat is real. “We saw some footage from flight tests, at the moment it is not in serial production, it is in flight test phase, this is major technological breakthrough by Iran.”

Israel should take notice, he says. “Some people in Israel just doesn’t understand the graveness of this new threat and others are just stating in automatic mode some pre-prepared statements with no real connection to the real news and what they represent.” He says the presence of Raisi at the event illustrates the importance of this to Tehran.

Perhaps the best summation came from Yehoshua Kalisky of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University agrees that Israel has “to take any threat seriously. But we don’t have to get panicked.”

“They didn’t do any operational proof. They did some ground experiments,” Kalisky said. “They only gave the range of 1,400 km which is not enough to reach Israel. They didn’t give any operational details.” Hypersonic weapons, he added, is “a difficult and multidisciplinary subject, including aerodynamics and material science and chemistry, scram-jet engine design and chemicals that are used for ignition….It’s questionable whether they currently have the capability.”

Can Israel Defend Against Hypersonic Weapons?

Even without newer capabilities like the Sky Sonic, Israel is known for its multi-layered system of air defenses, with the Arrow system the top layer.

Yadlin notes that “Arrow 3 and Arrow 4 are suitable for intercepting hypersonic missiles only up to a certain speed. If Iran has operational missiles beyond this speed, which is doubtful, Israel will be required to respond in a different way — pre-emptive strikes mainly.”

Kalisky sees some hope current systems could work. He noted that hypersonic missiles of this type that have to re-enter the atmosphere, meaning it will slow down due to friction and this also gives air defenders a thermal signature “so it can be detected and intercepted.”

Rubin also expressed confidence the Fattah could be defended against, pointing to the Patriot downing of Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile and the fact the Germans are moving ahead with the purchase of the Arrow system. “I think we have some answer to hypersonic missiles, otherwise the Germans wouldn’t have bought it,” he said.

Inbar believes this is a new type is a challenge to “every existing missile defense system, be it Arrow or THAAD or new type of interceptors from other countries. It’s a challenge. It will take time to understand the capacity of the new threat.”

One bit of good news from Inbar: he doesn’t foresee a chance for Iran proliferating this missile, the way Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed 136 drones.