Space Force faces disproportionate impact from a shutdown or CR

With a government shutdown seemingly on the horizon, the military is bracing for how its long-term planning will be impacted. But no single service is likely to be hurt as much as the Space Force, America’s newest branch of the military, which has ambitious growth plans laid out for next year, argue Charles Galbreath and Tim Ryan of the Mitchell Institute in this new analysis.

When Congress created the US Space Force, it was the result of a bipartisan agreement regarding the growing importance of effects delivered in, from and to space, combined with a realization that our adversaries seek to contest our ability to operate this domain. Four years later, it is ironic that the biggest threat facing the Space Force may be Congress’ inability to deliver a timely budget and, perhaps, even risk a government shutdown.

Space is foundational to the United States’ national security. Point blank: It is not possible to project joint power without calling upon assets in orbit. Our adversaries know this, which is why Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman emphasized, “We have to account for the fact that space as a contested domain has fundamentally changed. The character of how we operate in space has to shift, and that’s mostly because of the weapons China and Russia have tested and in some cases operationalized.” Meeting and prevailing amidst these challenges demands continued investment in the Space Force — in people, technologies and a new architecture aligned with modern mission requirements and the threat.

Unfortunately, gridlock in Congress stands in the way of this necessary progress as our nation now appears poised for a government shutdown, creating the dark irony of hoping for a continuing resolution (CR), normally viewed as a painful outcome for the military. Under either a shutdown or CR, the Space Force will find restrictions on how it allocates money, with new programs prevented from starting.

Yes, the Pentagon has learned from painful experience to plan for a CR in the first part of the fiscal year, often pushing major contract awards to the third and fourth quarters. But as the newest service, one with plans to expand significantly every year, losing even a few months of work could set the entire effort back in the long term.

Extend this dysfunction across months, even a year, and the Space Force could be looking at billions of buying power ceded.

Note that between FY23 and FY24, the USSF’s budget was slated to grow by 15%. That money attrits rapidly the longer a continuing resolution or government shutdown continues. Meanwhile, mission demands continue, so people and existing capabilities become stretched to the breaking point and our adversaries are able to continue modernizing while we are frozen in place.

Consider the circumstances facing America’s youngest service from a personnel vantage. The Space Force currently has just over 8,000 military Guardians, with support from another 7,000 civilians. The USSF requires personnel growth to effectively staff the enterprise as it scales to meet the demands placed upon it. A continuing resolution and a government shutdown bring those efforts to a rapid halt — not only does it freeze personnel, but civilians, facing a furlough of unknown length, could decide to find other jobs outside of the defense department.

To meet current operational requirements, the USSF also requires a modernized set of capabilities. That is why FY24 was supposed to see the service initiate seven new starts and new acquisition programs of record. These will be stalled under a CR. While some are quick to dismiss these delays, the impacts are quite drastic when considered holistically. The delay in a new program means the contractor will not receive anticipated funding and may have difficulty maintaining the team of experts required to deliver new capabilities. Further, a CR will cause delays in onboarding new team members, who may require background investigations and security clearances. Additionally, a lack of funding means the purchase of raw materials and sub-components is also delayed. Subsequent supply chain issues resulting from delayed orders are also possible.

In total, a shutdown or CR elongates the process to deliver new capabilities like an accordion or lumbering locomotive, not the “on/off” light switch some in Congress appear to believe. Again, this inhibits the ability of the USSF to address and deter the growing threats, primarily from China and Russia who are infusing large investments into their military and counterspace capabilities without delays.

Finally, a CR will also delay the fielding of already developed capabilities — after all, satellites do not work too well unless they are launched into orbit. If this gridlock extends a full year, seven National Security Space Launch missions stand at risk. This means new capabilities required by Combatant Commanders will be delayed and the existing systems must continue longer than anticipated.

This is especially problematic given how many legacy satellites on orbit are operating past their design lives. One example is the aging Defense Meteorological Satellite System (DMSP). This Cold War-era constellation is expected to reach end-of-life as soon as 2023-2024, leaving no margin for launching the replacement solutions. In the meantime, payloads awaiting launch need to be placed in storage — a highly technical, costly process — while the USSF shuffles the launch schedule to accommodate the CR impacts.

Bottom line, a CR or a government shutdown would portend serious consequences for the Space Force as Guardians strive to build a new architecture of capabilities required to meet burgeoning mission demands and the realities driven by hostile adversaries willing to contest the domain. The impacts on a small and growing service are distinct. Most importantly, it is critical to recognize that these challenges are self-inflicted. China faces no such impediments as to seeks to grow its military capabilities. It is time for Congress to get serious about solutions.

Charles Galbreath and Tim Ryan are Senior Fellows at the Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence.