Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin makes remarks before presenting Maj. Brady Augustin the 2022 Koren Kolligian Jr. Trophy during a ceremony at the Pentagon, Arlington, Va., Feb. 7, 2024. (US Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich)
WASHINGTON — In a March briefing with reporters outlining the service’s fiscal 2025 budget, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall issued a warning: Although spending limits imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act are set to expire by FY26, leaders would still have to make “tough choices” about big priorities that year.
The FY26 budget is now (almost) here, and decisions within it are in the hands of the incoming Trump administration. In conjunction with incumbent Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin, Kendall’s successor — who has not been announced as of this writing — will officially chart the way forward for a service that is struggling with a shrinking fighter force, pressing modernization needs and a wholesale revamp aimed at countering China.
An early preview of the problems facing the next administration was recently laid out by Kendall, who mused that the service’s plans for a next-gen tanker may not be affordable. Similar funding constraints apply to a next-gen fighter whose fate will now be settled by the incoming Trump team, a key program for the Air Force that Breaking Defense previously reported is supported by the service’s internal analysis.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2024 and look forward to what 2025 may hold.]
Other critical efforts additionally need funding in the upcoming FY26 budget, most notably two legs of the nuclear triad. As a seemingly successful flight test campaign continues, officials expect to ramp up production of the service’s B-21 Raider built by Northrop Grumman. And work on the new Sentinel ICBM, where Northrop is also the prime contractor, must proceed after a congressionally mandated review determined that there was no alternative for the increasingly expensive program.
Compounding the service’s woes, the FY25 budget has yet to be approved by lawmakers, and likely won’t be until March at the earliest. Trump-appointed officials alongside lawmakers will then simultaneously have to finalize the FY25 budget and craft FY26 spending plans — leading one top outgoing Pentagon official to predict the FY26 budget may not arrive until April or May.
How the new leadership in Washington influences the Air Force is an open question. But even two big milestones ahead that will likely be welcomed by the service may be interpreted differently by up-and-coming power players — notably Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, co-leads of a planned commission that will seek to slash government spending.
A leading example is the service’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. The drone wingmen are set to make their maiden flights next year, as the likes of Ramaswamy call to pour more investment into uncrewed systems, rather than “a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets” among other capabilities. A successful CCA program could bolster calls to scale back manned fighters, but for now, officials are pushing back against moving to fully unmanned combat. As Allvin recently told attendees at the Reagan Forum, his vision for the future consists of manned–unmanned teaming.
In a similar vein, upgraded versions of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 could finally be cleared for combat in 2025. While likely to be celebrated by officials once it’s achieved, significant delays for the upgrade may only embolden the likes of Musk, who has called officials “idiots” for continuing to build the stealth fighter.
As always, it’ll be Congress that makes the final call on Pentagon programs. And though incumbent Biden administration officials have said they’ve been working to a higher topline for a notional 2026 budget than what was the norm under the Fiscal Responsibility Act, it’s not clear if congressional conservatives — who backed the legislation in the first place — would support major boosts to defense spending.
However, proponents of a bigger Air Force budget will still have allies on Capitol Hill under the new GOP majority. One key champion for a larger Pentagon topline will likely be Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is set to chair the Senate subcommittee that oversees defense spending. Incoming Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., has also called for a “full-scale rebuilding of the shrinking US Air Force,” including by pressing forward with the Next Generation Air Dominance program.
Speaking Dec. 10 during a virtual discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, outgoing Air Force acquisition chief Andrew Hunter described two principal challenges awaiting the next administration: getting the proper resourcing, and ensuring systems are effectively integrated in a new, highly connected age of warfighting.
“[I]f the Fiscal Responsibility Act shapes the resource posture of the nation, we will not be able to fulfill the national defense strategy,” Hunter said of budgetary challenges. Regarding the “sophisticated integration mission,” Hunter then said that “I think we’ve got people who can hit it out of the park,” although “[y]ou’re still going to have to swing at the pitch and make contact.”
Lauding “wins” notched under his tenure, Hunter added, “there is a lot still to be done.”
