Amid ceasefire talks, Baltic defense leaders worry: What will Putin do with his battle-hardened army?

BELFAST — In the days before a US- and Ukraine-endorsed ceasefire proposal was on the table, defense leaders from two other countries on the Russian border sounded the alarm that even if Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to a deal, the reprieve may only allow Moscow to further consolidate its military and industrial might, and use it again in Ukraine or elsewhere.

“A lot will depend on what the peace talks” deliver, but 500,000 Russian troops will be battle-hardened and unlikely to want to return to civilian life earning $100 a month, Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s minister of defense told Breaking Defense.

Likewise the Lithuanian minister of defense, Dovilė Šakalienė, recently warned that Russia’s aggressive investment in its military-industrial complex was not just meant for Ukraine, but for “expansion plans that Putin is voicing himself.

“They are not fantasies; they are plans,” she said.

Both Pevkur, who spoke to Breaking Defense at the Munich Security Conference last month, and Šakalienė, who spoke to several reporters at the Lithuanian embassy earlier this month, cited Putin’s ambition to grow the military to 1.5 million troops, even as it loses thousands on the frontlines with Ukraine.

That will include the standing up of new brigades and divisions close to Estonian and Finnish waters, Pevkur said.

Russia’s “force posture will be around 50,000 to 60,000 troops,” said Pevkur. “So we all understand that this is a totally different situation compared to today. Of course the risk assessment will go up, and we need to answer this with a very clear message … higher defense spending, more troops on the ground.”

That investment will be necessary to match Russia’s own, Šakalienė said and added, Russia’s “military capability is growing.”

“Even whilst waging full-scale war in Ukraine, they are able to replenish their losses on the battlefield,” she said. “Their military industry capacity is growing, and the speed of production — both ammo and weapons — is growing. Chinese support is sufficient and consistent, and it’s very helpful in their military capability building.”

She said Russia is estimated to be spending some 40 percent of the federal budget, or around 9 percent of the country’s entire GPD on its military forces, though she acknowledged financial figures coming out of Moscow may be unreliable. But if they’re approximate, she said, that’s more of an investment than Russia would need to maintain its war with Ukraine.

Pevkur and Šakalienė’s comments echo those made last year by the chiefs of defense of several Baltic and Nordic nations in interviews with Breaking Defense, some of whom predicted NATO had a three-to-five year “window” to build up their militaries to deter Russia or, if necessary, defend against an attack.

RELATED: Northern NATO defense chiefs see ever-closing ‘window’ to prepare for Russia

Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis, agreed that in any post-war era, Europe will be “dealing with, [a] battle-tested Russian army, a battle-tested navy and air force, and one that is also equipped, perhaps not with the most sophisticated, exquisite weapons, but with mass capabilities in the automated space in particular, and Europe doesn’t have any of this.”

“Europe hasn’t invested in drone capabilities, swarm capabilities in the air, in the sea and the ground,” she said.

In Pevkur’s view, Europe’s readiness to prepare for a future Russian attack will be shaped by NATO’s new capability targets, set to be announced in the summer, and the urgency with which member nations can rise to them.

Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli “knows what is needed to defend the countries and to protect the people,” he said. “For politicians, it is an obligation to explain to its population, to people, why we need to spend more on defense. Again, when this war will be over in Ukraine, Russia will have hundreds of thousands of troops ready to fight today — not tomorrow, today.”

Polyakova said that there is an “easy fix” for Europe to gain a competitive edge over Russia, regarding drone or aircraft mass capabilities: greater industrial investment.

If “we’re talking about Europe’s ability to defend itself and deter what happens in the post-war [era], Russia is going to be far more capable and it takes a long time to build tanks,” she explained. Instead, Europe can manufacture drones “really quickly” and not a lot of training is required, added Polyakova.

“This is what Europe should be investing in now, their capabilities in the automated, future force readiness space. Ukraine is in an incredible position to provide all those capabilities. … They have the know-how and ability to build, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of drones that they could potentially, when there’s peace and stability, export to every single NATO country.”

Last year Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the nation had produced over 1.5 million first-person-view drones in 2024 alone, according to the Kiev Independent.