MILAN — Ukraine currently has a military advantage over Russia, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, with Moscow experiencing personnel losses at a rate five times higher than Kyiv’s, largely due to Ukraine’s steadily improving drone kill rates.
“I think Ukraine is in a much better place than it has been at any stage in this horrific war — the killing ratio right now is 1:5, one Ukrainian soldier to five Russian soldiers. … The rate at which they’re going now is roughly 150 to 157 dead [Russian] soldiers per square kilometers,” Stubb said during a panel organized by the Brookings Institution on Monday while on an official visit to Washington.
In comparison, a report published in January by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies found that the ratio of Ukrainian combat casualties and fatalities to Russia’s was roughly half that at 1:2.5 or 1:2.
During the panel discussion, Stubb explained that allies have been working on three possible scenarios for this year regarding the Ukraine war: a prolongation of hostilities, a peace settlement, or the weakening of one side due to external factors.
“The most predominant scenario is number one, that the war will continue, and that’s why I think it’s very important now that we prepare for next winter,” he warned.
However, Stubb remained optimistic, especially regarding Ukraine’s combat effectiveness, noting that it has achieved 95 percent of its recent kills via drones.
Such a figure represents one of the highest estimates provided thus far of the overall usage of drone strikes as part of Ukraine’s battlefield operations. Mykhailo Fedorov, now the Ukrainian Defense Minister, stated in an August interview with Reuters that between 80 and 90 percent of Russian targets hit were destroyed by drones.
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More specifically, in a recent post on his Telegram channel, Fedorov largely attributed this success hit rate to Ukrainian interceptor drones, which he said demolished 33,000 enemy drones in March alone — twice as many as the previous month.
This record, according to a report by the Center for European Policy Analysis published Monday, highlights the growing efficiency and range of Ukraine’s drone-based and air defense arsenal. It cited as an example the ability of a Ukrainian drone pilot to have reportedly shot down two Shahed drones with a Sting interceptor located 500 kilometers (311 miles) away.
While facing a challenging and long-term conflict, Stubb also emphasized the war-torn country’s acquired capability of projecting power at distances up to 3,000 kilometers, which he noted as an important element of its position of strength.