WASHINGTON — As the US unfurls a multi-layered plan to help commercial vessels safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, analysts tell Breaking Defense it will likely take time for commercial shipping companies to feel safe enough to move through the waters — with US forces carrying a greater risk in the interim.
The US officially launched “Project Freedom” on Sunday, with the stated goal of helping commercial vessels transit safely though the strait. On a call with reporters today, US Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper described the effort as “inherently a defensive operation.”
“We are employing US ballistic missile defense-capable destroyers, over 100 land and sea based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms — meaning under the sea, on the sea and from the air — and then 15,000 service members to extend this defensive umbrella across the Strait of Hormuz to protect our forces and … defend commercial shipping,” he added, noting that the US has hit six Iranian small boats so far.
As of noon Eastern Monday, two US-flagged merchant vessels have transited through those waters, and Cooper said more may be going through in the coming hours and days.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman used for shipping, including nearly a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade. But commercial shipping there ground to a halt due to concerns about Iranian mines and aerial weapons after the US and Israel began military operations inside Iran in late February. Subsequently, the US and Iran both announced competing blockades, with Cooper stating today the US is still enforcing its blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
The project, Cooper explained, is not providing vessels with a maritime escort. Instead, the four-star admiral explained that the US mapped out a narrow path that should be safe for commercial vessels to follow, and is then using maritime and aviation assets like AH-64 Apache and MH-60 helicopters, along with a host of fighters including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and the EA-18G Growler, to provide cover to passing ships.
“We have a much better defensive arrangement in this process where we have multiple layers that include ships, helicopters, aircraft, airborne early warning [and] electronic warfare,” Cooper added. “We have a much broader defensive package than you would have if you request [an escort]. I feel good about that and it was proven just in the last couple of hours.
“The IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has launched multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats [at] ships we are protecting,” he said separately, though he declined to detail how many vessels have been targeted. “We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions.”
As for the status of the ceasefire between the US-Iran, he said he wouldn’t go into details of whether it’s over or not, despite confirming that Iran had fired on ships and the US had fired on Iranian vessels.
Greater Risk For US Forces?
Multiple experts told Breaking Defense that while Project Freedom is getting a full-court press from the administration, it is unlikely to open the floodgates and restore mass transit in the region in the short term.
Mick Mulroy, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, estimated that there are roughly 20,000 commercial captains and crew stuck on ships right now due to the dueling blockades in the international waterway, leading to humanitarian crises. However, it may take time, he added, to see whether ships will trust their ability to get through without being attacked, and, “perhaps more importantly” if the insurance companies will back it.
“If not, this effort will not have the impact we hoped,” Mulroy added.
Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution’s director of research for foreign policy, also added that “Iran has a decent chance to score hits with drones, missiles, and/or mines if ships actually do try to traverse the Strait; that’s the whole reason why we’ve been doing the embargo further out to sea, in more open waters.”
Everyone, he added, will likely be “nervous at first, though that could ease with time — or not, depending on how safe and successful the first attempted transits prove to be.”
Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American Strategy at The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), also said that Project Freedom won’t alleviate concerns from commercial shippers immediately, claiming that they are “risk averse” because even a single mine or drone strike could lead to crew casualties and take ships offline for months — even if the ship isn’t sunk.
“This puts a heavy burden of proof on the US to show that the Strait is safe to transit, but that hasn’t happened yet,” Ruhe said. “The US hasn’t made clear how it plans to reopen the Strait, which gives Iran plenty of leeway to keep deterring any shippers who might think of risking the transit.”
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ defense and security department, said that since the US government has said it is providing ships with insurance, US-flagged ships might initiate the transit. But other shippers may not take the risk themselves due to the massive uncertainty.
“They will want to see several convoys transit successfully and undamaged before they are willing to make a move,” Cancian said.
Cancian also cautioned that if the US does start running escort ships, it could lead to more casualties than previously seen during Operation Epic Fury.
“Running convoys through the Strait increases the possibility of renewed fighting,” Cancian said. “Convoy battles could produce heavier casualties than seen previously because so many ships would be exposed to damage from Iranian weapons. Iranian anti-ship missiles and mines have very large warheads, about 1,000 lbs, and can therefore cause tremendous damage.”
Ruhe said that the Iranian regime has incentive to fight because it has “staked so much on controlling the Strait,” and therefore “can’t afford to let the US cross this redline unhindered.”
“Unlike the US blockade, which operates beyond the range of Iran’s anti-ship capabilities, this new operation puts US forces right up against the IRGC Navy,” Ruhe said. “Though it’s been hit hard, the IRGC Navy is built for exactly this kind of fight, and it retains enough fast attack craft, naval mines, missiles and drones, and tactical air defenses to credibly threaten U.S. forces.”
More broadly, the operation will only extend the wear and tear on US military assets in the region, potentially impacting readiness in the future, according to several experts.
Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Institute think tank’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, said that the both the aircraft carriers Ford and Lincoln have faced deployment extensions and that they could enter their maintenance periods late — leading to “cascading delays” at both Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Virginia and Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility in Washington.
Likewise, the destroyers from their respective strike groups have also faced extensions and will likely cause delays at ship repair yards, he said.
“Moreover, the wear and tear of the deployment will increase the workload at repair facilities, which will further delay repairs,” Clark said. “The end result will be the Navy will have difficulty getting more than 2 CSGs (carrier strike groups) deployed at a time in 2027 and 2028.”
Dan Shapiro, who previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and the US ambassador to Israel, also said that ongoing operations in the Middle East like Project Freedom would augment the impact of wear and tear on the ships since the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Likewise, it would have repercussions tied to deferred maintenance and future deployment schedules, he said.
“That will pose challenges to the Navy’s ability to fulfill other missions, including deterring China in the IndoPacific,” Shapiro said. “It’s quite noteworthy that for over two months, we have had no aircraft carrier operating in the IndoPacific, which indicates the kinds of tough choices leaders and commanders already face, and will undoubtedly face even more after this war concludes.”