Protesters hold signs and flags during a massive protest against the government’s judicial overhaul plan on March 11, 2023 in Tel Aviv, Israel. (Amir Levy/Getty Images)
TEL AVIV — With the government of Benjamin Netanyahu having plunged Israel into a judicial domestic crisis and empowered right-wing politicians pushing geopolitical boundaries, the Israeli defense establishment is worried that the flow of arms from Washington may be slowed or even cut off in order to express the Biden administration’s displeasure.
The main concern is that the right-wing government will cause a break in relations with the US that could impact Washington’s willingness to approve Israel’s annual foreign military financing (FMF) budget, money that the US gives to Israel to spend on American-made defense goods. Longer term, members of the defense community are concerned that a long-term FMF agreement, with negotiations due to start in 2026 and money to begin in 2028, could be impacted.
Expressing these concerns to Breaking Defense, one Israeli defense source decried what he called “provocations” initiated by the far-right members in the Israeli government as a “spit in the face of Washington.”
The Israeli government’s initiative to change the balance between the legislative, judicial and executive branches in Israel — effectively, the right-wing government seeks to preclude the High Court from nullifying legislation and would grant the ruling coalition the authority to choose judges — has caused major demonstrations around the country and messages of concern from world leaders, including US President Joe Biden.
To spill oil on the fire, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, made incendiary remarks on Sunday while speaking to a gathering of French Jews at a private memorial service in Paris, in which he denied the existence of the Palestinian people, declaring “There is no such thing as a Palestinian people, hence there is no such thing as Palestinians.”
Smotrich — whose bid to become defense minister was scrapped in part due to pressure from Washington — reportedly also displayed a map of “Greater Israel” that included the occupied West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Jordan. While the Israeli foreign ministry tried to do damage control, tweeting “The State of Israel’s position, which recognizes the geographical integrity of the Hashemite Kingdom, has not changed,” Jordan’s Foreign Ministry denounced the appearance, calling it a “reckless offensive conduct and a violation of international conventions and the peace pact” involving Jordan and Israel.
Elsewhere, lawmakers introduced a bill in the Knesset that would revoke a 2005 law authorizing the evacuation of four settlements in the northern West Bank, something the US denounced as “provocative and unhelpful.” All of this has led to what was described as a “candid and constructive” phone chat between Biden and Netanyahu over the weekend. (However, Israeli sources pointed out to Breaking Defense that Netanyahu has yet to receive an invite to the White House, perhaps as a sign of anger from the Biden team.)
And Tuesday, Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, met with Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador to the US. Sherman “conveyed US concern on legislation passed by the Israeli Knesset rescinding critical aspects of the 2005 Disengagement Law, notably the prohibition on creating settlements in the northern West Bank.” This appears to be the first time in the history of US-Israeli relations that the ambassador was summoned to the state department for such a dressing down.
The American embassy in Israel and the Israeli Ministry of Defense both declined to comment for this piece.
Potential Military Impact
The severity of the internal crisis is exemplified by an analysis released by the Israel Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), with the dramatic statement that “In view of this looming crisis, the INSS, for the first time ever, sees its duty to issue a strategic alert.”
The strategic alert points to the dangers for the security of Israel as a result from the government’s acts, stating “The world is closely following the internal turmoil in the wake of the proposed reform, and the almost universal reaction is of puzzlement and deep concern, ranging from heads of state to street protests. In particular, the special relationship with the United States, based not only on interests but also on shared values, shows signs of growing strain in the wake of the reform.”
All of which is to say, there are real reasons to question whether the Biden administration will look for ways to express its displeasure with the Netanyahu government. And sources both within the Ministry of Defense and outside of it are growing concerned that the easiest lever to put pressure on the man called Bibi is to threaten the flow of weapons from Washington to Jerusalem.
In the short term, there are concerns the US will slow-roll routine requests for parts and supplies, or make changes to the existing FMF agreement.
Eitan Gilboa, an expert on US Israel relations, noted that “The FMF agreement is an MOU that has to be reaffirmed in Congress each year. This is one hurdle. The other is in a decision by the president to make one-sided changes. We should not forget — this is an MOU and that opens many doors to Washington to make changes.”
Gilboa added that the progressive camp in the US Democratic party has been trying for years to channel the FMF money to other targets, like helping the Palestinians. Such efforts could, in theory, pick up steam if Washington is displeased with Israel’s actions.
Giora Eiland, a retired Maj. Gen. and former head of the Israeli National Security Council, specifically called out the risk that “the US administration may not help Israel to achieve early deliveries of some major platforms like the Boeing KC-46A and F-15EX.” Israel has been pushing to speed up the planned timetable for those capabilities.
A former president of one of Israel’s defense industries agreed that the US might react by first stalling Israeli requests for different defense hardware. But, the former executive said, if the Israeli government continues the process that will affect the Israeli democratic system, the reactions will become “Harsher in a way that will affect some critical issues related to the security of Israel.”
The longer-term concern raised by several sources to Breaking Defense is the question of what happens when negotiating the long-term FMF agreement due to begin in 2028. While that’s obviously a long way away — and there is an American presidential election between now and then, which could lead to a different administration less concerned with how Netanyahu handles domestic affairs — there is the risk that members of Congress could be soured on Israeli actions and keep that in mind during negotiations.
“This is a very real danger,” Eiland said.
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