A People's Liberation Army soldier during a demonstration for visiting US officers.

A People’s Liberation Army soldier during a demonstration for visiting US officers.

WASHINGTON: From this city’s perspective, China looks like a rising giant, liable to dominate its smaller neighbors unless America stands firm. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel will likely carry soothing words of reassurance on this very subject to Seoul and Tokyo when he travels there next week.

From Beijing’s point of view, however, it is China that looks like the underdog – and, at least in the near term, they’ve got a point. Unfortunately, this sense of relative weakness doesn’t make the dragon pull in its horns. To the contrary, feeling vulnerable makes the Chinese skittish in dangerous and provocative ways.

Despite two decades of investment, China’s military is still outgunned by Japan, let alone by the US. “Japan has the strongest navy and air force in Asia except for the United States,” leading analyst Larry Wortzel said Wednesday at the Institute of World Politics, pointing at a map of northeast Asia: “This shows their air force bases and how they’re postured….”

“You said Japan?” interrupted an incredulous member of the audience.

“Japan, that’s correct, absolutely,” said Wortzel. “The most modern, the most effective. [They’re] still restricted by Article 9 of the Constitution” – which “forever renounce[s] war as a sovereign right of the nation” – “but you don’t want to mess with them.”

And that’s just one US ally. South Korea has a formidable military of its own. Then there’s America’s own military which, despite painful budget cuts, remains the largest and most high-tech in the world, at least for now. So the balance of forces in the Western Pacific still favors the democracies.

That’s the geostrategic good news. The bad news is that Beijing isn’t handling it well.

Two centuries of insecurity have conditioned Chinese leaders to be a little light on the trigger finger. So while Chinese strategy documents consistently speak of self-defense – the current official “active defense” – “I think you have to not be very literal when you read this stuff,” Wortzel said. “It’s a fairly prickly and aggressive military doctrine inside a defensive structure.”

“A lot of what they do is very heavily built on preemption,” Wortzel explained. “When you read the diplomatic literature out of China, all their attacks are ‘preemptive counterattacks.’ When they went into Korea [in 1950], it was a preemptive counterattack. When they went into Vietnam [in 1974 and 1979], it was a preemptive counterattack. When they went into India in 1962, it was a preemptive counterattack.”

It’s not that China was entirely unprovoked in these cases. In 1950, they saw US forces steamrolling over their North Korean ally and surging towards the Chinese with no guarantee the Americans would stop at the Yalu. (Indeed, Gen. Douglas MacArthur wanted a wider war with China, which is why Harry Truman finally fired him). In both 1962 and 1979, there had been skirmishes along the disputed borders for years. But in each case, the Chinese response was to escalate – massively, bloodily, and unexpectedly.

These examples aren’t just ancient history. The principle of preemption is a big part of China’s “active defense” doctrine today, said retired Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, speaking on a panel at the Wilson Center earlier on Wednesday. “They don’t have to wait and take the first shot,” he said. Indeed, Chinese doctrine does not limit itself to preempting a military attack, he said: “China claims ‘if you act diplomatically to challenge our sovereignty….we have the right to preemptively attack as part of our active defense strategy.’”

“If you’re a country that lives in the shadow of China, how would you feel?” asked McDevitt. “China says, don’t worry, ‘it’s only defense, I’m only defending myself against attack,’ but [China] can also argue that ‘I don’t like what you’re doing, and I see that as a threat to my sovereignty, and I’m going to whack you.’”

China’s broad definitions of sovereignty and self-defense are especially unnerving given its long-running standoffs with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyus in Chinese, and with the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal.

“In China’s view, they are non-aggressive because they do employ predominantly civilian vessels that are not heavily armed,” said Danish scholar Liselotte Odgaard at the Wilson Center discussion. But China claims for both its paramilitary and military vessels the right “to do as we please, when we please, without notifying you, and that’s totally unacceptable to the other countries,” said Odgaard. That’s because the People’s Republic feels it has some claim to any territory once controlled by the Imperial China – however briefly and however loosely – while its neighbors argue that jurisdictional rights from the 19th century, let alone from earlier, have long since expired.

The Chinese position is that “we’re being generous here by letting you use this area,” Odgaard said. From Beijing’s point of view, in other words, they’re already making a concession on the disputed territories by not just kicking the Japanese, Filipinos, and others out.

That said, there is a distinctly pragmatic dimension to this “generosity,” because the People’s Liberation Army is painfully aware it lacks the firepower to kick them out. Unless China resorts to nuclear weapons, Japan and Korea can defend themselves. While weaker, the Philippines have had US backing for over a century, and Vietnam chewed up China’s invasion force in 1979 without any outside help. What China has been struggling to do for at least the last two decades is develop a military that can keep America at bay with what US strategists call an “anti-access/area-denial” (A2/AD) defense. How far the PLA has actually moved towards that goal is the subject of the second part of this article, out next week.

 

Editor’s note: We had originally intended to publish the second part of this article (available here) on Friday the 27th, but that plan was overtaken by breaking news about the Defense Department’s plans to cope with a federal government shutdown.

Comments

  • Don Bacon

    Of course China is not outgunned by Japan, and of course China isn’t going to surrender to PM Abe’s island grab.

    It’s amazing how situations change for many Americans. First an imperialistic Japan was a mortal enemy as it raped and plundered China, and now Japan is an unquestionable ally even when its militaristic leader conducts a brazen land grab of disputed territory, and China being “relatively weak” supposedly feels vulnerable which is dangerous.

    Well, when the assumptions are wrong, so are the conclusions. There needs to be a new “leading analyst” who knows that China has the largest air force in Asia, many more combat ships than Japan plus ballistic missiles. Hear that, Tokyo?

    “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” — Daniel Patrick Moynihan

    • Don Bacon

      –World Military Ranking
      3. China, 17. Japan
      –Aircraft
      2. China, 10. Japan
      –Naval Ship Strength
      1.China, 18. Japan
      http://www.globalfirepower.com/

      • Araya

        @Don Bacon,
        This World Military Ranking Page what you have posted is not serious/professional. One example they claim what France, Germany or the United Kingdom are relevant World Powers. Just one example France the United Kingdom and the other European country’s how participated In the War against the Libya run out of bombs and struggled to overthrow a third world dictator how was already fighting is against his own people without US Help. Just remember!

        And Russia should be one the second place? Ok Russia has more nuclear bombs them everyone else and they appear also to have more Tanks and Armored-vehicles them everyone else but them you look one the details you will rapidly recognize what Russia is without is missive nuclear firepower a Paper-Tiger in compare to Red China.

        Ok now let’s discuss about the Chinese vs. Japanese Military topic, the Chinese are clear superior to the Japanese what means the number of Armored-Vehicles, Tanks, Fighters, Bombers and the Number of active Soldiers but China’s tanks and Soldiers can not swim to Japans main-land or even to the small disputed islands and the Chinese Air Force will have the fight of there live to achieve the Air Superiority over Japan and them the USA fight one the Site of Japan they will lose the battle for sure. And at See it is also not so clear how is stronger in a real conflict ! one the Paper the Chinese Navy has around 600 combat Ships but the most of them are small vessels, some strong armed but with a limited operational Range and designed to invade Taiwan and attack US-Vessels in the so called 300 mile-zone for the Chinese Coast. In compare to this the Japanese Self-Defense Forces is much better prepared to defend their Territory against a conventional Chinese Attack including
        an attack one the disputed isle-group.

        because why Japan has around 200 F15 with well-trained pilots combined with a strong airborne-early warning and control Fleet of 13 AWE and 4 AWACS and also strong and highly modern ground based early warning Radar Systems and additionally also a Fleet of 28 DD and 8 DDG Navy Ships how can all be also used for early warning or Air defense and this combination give Japan the edge about any incoming Chinese Bomber and Fighter Groups. And the Chinese Navy will have also to face a superior enemy, so Japan has not only the edge in the Air they have also a strong Air-based ASW Force based one 90 P3 Orion how can fire Harpoon Missiles and Torpedo’s and also around 60 Air Force F2 how can fire the new Type 93 Air-to-Ship Missile additionally to their large Naval Surface Fleet of 4 Helicopter destroyers, 8 DDG (7 of them are Aegis Destroyer), 28DD how are all also well armed with Anti-Ship Missiles from Type 90 and 93 how are superior to the US Harpoon and the japanese also have around 100 SH-60 how are equipped for ASUW Mission’s but can also be used against surface ships. And even the Japanese Patrol Boats like the Hayabusa-class are equipped with Type 90 Ship-to-Ship Missiles and the strongest Argument in favor of the Japanese Navy are at last there 16 active SSK Submarines hove are superior to any Chinese counterpart. With other Words Red China cannot win a conflict with Japan without use of Nuclear Weapons because why they didn’t have the Capabilities to beat the Japanese in their own airspace and costal seas.

        The Problem for Red China is what they need to invade the contested islands and also to destroy the Japanese Navy and Air Force to win. In compare to this the only think what the Japanese must do is to defend this small group of island’s and to avoid a Chinese maritime Invasion one them. If you have differing opinion so please explain me how Red China can beat Japan based one there actual military strength? I simply didn’t see a path to viktory for the Chinese Communist with exception of the Nuclear Option.

  • Don Bacon

    Here‘s some footage of a joint China-Russia naval exercise in July. The PLAN aren’t acting like underdogs.

    Japan is acting aggressively against the Russia-occupied Kurile Islands, so China and Russia share a negative opinion of PM Abe and his island-grabbing.

  • squidgod_the_unbannable_2.0

    America’s Dangerous Weakness, Part 1: Washington’s Aggressive Idea Of Self-Defense

    You know it’s true.

    • shaneSL

      Oh where are the Iraqi WMDs btw? I am pretty sure they must be around somewhere but are just ReALLy really really well hidden. Or Saddam must have invented invisibility cloaking to hide his WMDs- that must be it

  • JimBobJoe

    I interact with Chinese nationalists on some blogs, including Chinese defense blogs, and I was shocked at how euphoric and drunk on power they are about becoming the center of the universe when their rapidly modernizing economy and military surpasses the USA. It’s the same profile as 1930′s Germany with supremacist ideas, and they can’t wait to take back what “is theirs” and exact revenge on perceived historical wrongs, which includes just about the entire West.

    I disagree about the military balance between China and Japan. That’s outdated information. China’s air force has 350+ SU-27′s/30′s to Japan’s 198 F-15′s(with older avionics), thousands of SRBM’s and IRBM’s to knock out airfields in the region pretty quick. Also, about 50 SSK’s(33 which are modern) to Japans 16 SSK’s. Japan has better support, logistics, training, and technology that is narrowing fast, but China has the numbers and technology that is good enough. Just look at the force comparisons at globalsecurity.org or wiki. Thank god Abe came around to change things.

    And let’s not forget about nuclear weapons.
    Let’s also not forget about $200 Billion worth of blue-prints and designs of state of the art weapons from the West they have stolen.
    China is modernizing so quickly that 5 year old data is useless.

    So, no, Sydney.

    China is absolutely pouring money into their military and will be on par with America’s way sooner than we’d like to admit.
    A lot of experts are saying this.(sorry for not citing sources)
    I hope to god this is wrong, but just look at what the Chinese are churning out every year.

    • Don Bacon

      Thank god Abe came around to change things.

      What did Abe change? Japan has no friends in its neighborhood — did he change that?

      • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

        Japan should put less money into trying to keep what it stole from China and more into fixing this massive radiation leak that has become the worlds leading disaster.

        • Don Bacon

          Good point on Abe’s move to divert attention from a severe domestic problem to some rocks in the East China Sea, with the assumed backing of Team USA of course.

      • Araya

        This is true but japan didn’t plans or even speak about the extermination of other Nations. And sorry japan is not the only country how has stolen from other so for example the Red Chinese has not just stolen a few small Islands, now they have stolen Tibet and make some attempts to still more territory from other Nation like India and Vietnam.

        To make it clear, I know also the Japanese nationalism and because of this I have given you a positive quote for your first replay to JimBobJoe. Japan has a massive Problem with the war-crimes what they did in the Second World War against is Neighbor’s (China, South Korea and the Philippine’s) they bestially murdered other 30 Million Chinese Civilians this is fact and the Japanese have never apologized for. So them you say what Japan has no Friend’s so you are right but they must look one the actually situation and the future. And japan is not the Problem hear, the Problem is Red China with is Neo-Imperialist Ambition and the fact what they build up their Military not just to defend their Territory but to attack there Neighbor’s. So my concern is not Japan with is Historical war-crimes because why this are thinks of the past my concerns are the real eventuality of a mass murder committed by the Chinese Communist. So the best think what japan, South Korea and all other Neighbors can do it to build up there Military and more important to get their own nuclear weapons.

        • shaneSL

          the Japanese massacred 200 000 civilians in the beaches where I grew up in Malaysia and Singapore (far far from China) in 1942. It was called the Sook Ching massacre. Go look it up or do a quick search. And lets not mention the greater attrocities committed in China or Korea.

          Lets not forget the 160 000 Allied POWs captured with the fall of Singapore and sent to their deaths in Burma by the Japs. Less than 8000 of them survived at the end of the war. Your comment shows great disrespect to the war dead and the innocents who lost their lives to Japanese aggression. Every year, these surviving veterans from Australia, the UK, New Zealand come to Singapore to pay respects to the war dead. They have mostly passed away by now and you bring great shame to Japan and the Japanese people.

          The Chinese gave the Japanese their language (Kanji, based on the Chinese characters), wrote Japan’s first history (in chinese- the first historical records of japan and mention of Yamato), gave Japan her architecture and dress style( influenced from Tang dynasty court dress and architecture – esp their priest robes), gave Japan their system of government and cultural values (Confucianism, the system of ministries and boards and idea of an Emperor), and this is how Japan treats China and the Chinese in turn. Shame on you. There are many good Japanese people out there. But you are not one of them

          • Araya

            Yes I know what the Japanese have massacred over 30 Million people in China during the World War II with a brutality never seen before but at last they paid for their crimes (not all) and the Imperial Japanese dream died 1945. But what happen after the Japanese empire collapses? I tell you, Mao Zedong’s Communists killed another 60 Million people and Mao Zedong’s successor and his murderer are now Red Chinas Leaders.

            So I didn’t really understand what you will tell me with your replay, I can only repeat what I’m not a Japan Fan because why I know what Japan has never dealt with is War Crimes in compare to Germany. The most Japanese also didn’t even know about what they Country had done during the World War II because why this is a topic what was hushed in Japan since the end of the War.

            “”"The Chinese gave the Japanese their language (Kanji, based on the Chinese characters), wrote Japan’s first history (in chinese- the first
            historical records of japan and mention of Yamato), gave Japan her architecture and dress style( influenced from Tang dynasty court dress
            and architecture – esp their priest robes), gave Japan their system of government and cultural values (Confucianism, the system of ministries
            and boards and idea of an Emperor), and this is how Japan treats China and the Chinese in turn. Shame on you. There are many good Japanese people out there. But you are not one of them”"”

            And just so I’m not Japanese! And what means your own nationalist Comments about what China has done or not for Japan so they do not care for me. And the enemy remains the same. And the enemy is Red China not the Chinese people but the Chinese Government the largest dictatorship on earth with is ambitions and growing Military Power. They also didn’t speak hear about how is the bad or the good guy inm this game, they just speak about how the things develop in the Pacifica Area and the Geopolitical Situation is approximate the fallowing:

            They have a major Antagonist called Red China how gets stronger and stronger from Year to Year because of a massive military buildup. And it is also true what the Chinese have just two real Ally’s in the region (Pakistan and is Stalinist Proxy Nord Korea) the other Countries are all enemy’s or potential enemies of Red China and Japan is just one of Chinas potential enemy’s. Chiina is ironically because of is Neo-imperialism Ambition and is Military Buildup more isolate in the Region them Japan because of is problematic History.

            So Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Australia are all close Allies of the United States of America and as consequence any attempt by the Chinese Communist to conquer new territory’s in the Pacific area will likely open out to a War between the United States and Red China.

            And this are not the only potential Conflict Area for Red China because why China has in India also a potential Adversary how has already fight against China in some border Conflict’s and even the relationship with Russia are not nearly so good as both sides claims. I spoke
            with Russian Military’s and they fear a Chinese aggression like the Sino-Soviet border conflict 1969 more them any other War- Scenario because why it is more likely.

          • shaneSL

            I understand where you are coming from esp as I know what the American history books and their media tell you. Yes China was communist, the current regime is called the Communist party but from the Chinese perspective the form of government does not matter in the least. Dont you recall Deng Xiao Ping’s “doesnt matter if the cat (form of government) is black (communist) or white (capitalist or other form of government), as long as it catches mice (serves the needs of the people, protects national interests), it is a good cat.”

            The same with the Chinese. The Chinese have come from tribalism under the Pre Zhou era towards the Feudalism of the Shang/Zhou (1600-200BC), to centralised legalistic authoritarian government of the Qin towards the Confucian administrative bureacracy of the Han (200BC) to the Tang (less confucian) and Song and Ming (neo confucianism) and later Republican era 1911 to Communism 1949 to today’s socialist capitalism. The government today has manifestations of all the prior administrations/ forms of rule in China for the past 3600 years. The form of government is just an excuse for certain regimes to declare war on another. The US to China is just another passing miltary great power just like the Man People of 700BC, the XiongNu of 200BC, the Turkish empire of 700AD, the Jurchens of 900AD, the Mongols/Huns of 1000AD, the Manchus of the 1600s, the British Empire of the 1800s. They all come and go, and most fade into ignomity at the end, but the Chinese are always there.

            Yes, japan, phillpines, south korea, singapore, australia are all “close” allies of the US. But more like they are exploiting differences between the two and gaining maximum trade benefit from both. Besides did you know that Phillipines’ national leaders have almost never been ethnic Filipino? They have always been Chinese families – the Aquinos (today), the Estradas, the Arroyos, and yes, the US backed former dictator of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos.

            The Chinese are more like luring the US into another far off conflict in the South China Sea which has been traditionally a Chinese sphere of influence. The countries surrounding it have significant Chinese populations and dominate them economically and politically. E.g. Thailand : the past 30 prime ministers/dictators of thailand are ethnic Chinese. Including today’s opposition leader/former prime minister as well as incumbent Shinawatra. In Indonesia, the Chinese own 90% of the economy. In the Phillipines, the top 3 largest banks and top media sources are all owned by ethnic Chinese., lets not even mention Malaysia where the Chinese own over 60% of the economy or Singapore which has Chinese prime ministers and majority. All are great sources of tech and intel which is transferred to China. The same with Taiwan (Republic of China) – everytime the US sells advanced weapons to them, the mainland Chinese smile secretly but openly pretend to be angry. It aids Chinese tech development immensely. Japan itself has over 400 000 Chinese living in Japan. It is expensive financially and politically for the US to be stuck in SEA and the Chinese know it. It wont be long before the Filipinos remember the massacre of over 1 million Filipino civilians who wanted independence from the US after the end of the US-Spanish war of 1904, or the continued rape of Filipino civilians by US troops stationed there. The Chinese just have to wait out the century and focus efforts elsewhere (read: Central Asia and South America and Africa) and gain greater profits there while the US expends considerable financial and political capital in the South east Asia region with little financial gain. By half a century, American coffers would be empty and China’s economic dominance so great that no one can afford to lose economic contacts with it. And this is the best case scenario: one where nations realise they have to invest in a relationship with China and that doing so has great benefits as in the past under the Ming and Qing Dynasties. The US too would realise that trade is more important and focus on trade. The same with China – the profitable mutual relationship would encourage friendly relations with a stable state and prosperous people – and require less hardline stance to placate a yet rowdy public.

            Saying “RED China” or branding a country/civilization as “evil” is utterly simplistic and something commonly done in western media organisations. It is not so simple. The Chinese frown upon the US’ numerous foreign wars and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan but that does not mean it is evil. The US used WMDs on civilian targets twice in Hiroshima and Nagasaki knowing full well their effects – ranking it way worse than North Korea which has not done so. The US massacred 1 million Filipinos demanding independence and democracy in 1904 and illegally annexed the Kingdom of Hawaii, illegally declared war on Mexico and seized the western states, backed drug cartels in nicaragua and guatemela and in South America (ever wonder why south americans are so unfriendly to the US?). Or perhaps did the US “forget” to mention this in their textbooks to their young? like… erm….. propoganda? (gasp)

          • ACT

            shaneSL “…as I know what the American history books and their media tell you…” Oh joy, another tin-foiler with his aluminum-foil hat on too tight. Sorry to burst your bubble, Shane, but the U.S is decidedly not the empire or malevolent entity you imagine it to be. Has it done horrific things abroad? Most certainly. However, I challenge you to find another “great power” or “super-power” that has not committed similar acts–against others or against its own people. While the veracity of what went on at Tienanmen Square, for example, is in doubt, I do not doubt–and there is sufficient evidence to back it up–that Mao’s “great leap forward” and “cultural revolution” were unmitigated disasters and caused the deaths–either by starvation or brutality–of millions. This, in addition to the loss of priceless cultural heritage. Ironic it is, then, that the same government now turns to the very cultural heritage it tried to destroy to justify anachronistic and hypocritical claims of a magnitude not seen since the Roman Empire. As a fellow commentator of mine, Oro Invictus, once noted:

            “The US government may see themselves as kings, but they do not deign to pretend themselves gods like the CPC. The US has caused their fair share of misery…yet the PRC has caused infinitely more suffering…” I would also add that the U.S–unlike the PRC–has not and does not establish itself or its foreign policy on almost entirely revanchist leanings.

    • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

      You should be paying more attention to American war mongering on every stage and look at how our country have been hijacked by the corporate military industrial complex.

      • SS BdM Fuhress ‘Savannah

        With free enterprise seared into out thoughts what corporate complex isn’t going to be hijacked? Me and you in Biz competing. Do I want to be better than you or put you out of biz and take all your biz? In the end that equals up to what, monopoly and the destruction of a country. We are there now as a country.

        • Mike

          Amazing how clear the threat becomes when one’s “butt” has been on the line, aye?…..

          • SS BdM Fuhress ‘Savannah

            Gee everything got clear to me when they gave us a raise years ago and the insurance gobbled that up. And then they gave us no raise but the professors got more money though it was not called a raise.

          • Mike

            Middle Class people in the U.S. have gotten screwed since 1982…. Hopefully that is changing since 2009… At least the market is back with QE help and the employment picture is improving…. Now if this Administration can reverse the flow of jobs to China…. More Americans are beginning to understand the connection between “Made In China” and America’s decline….

          • SS BdM Fuhress ‘Savannah

            I started working at that college in ’82, fired in 2005. Then this and that and finally ruled insane, paranoia from another Universe. America might understand the connection but they also understand if they want stuff for the most part it is too costly to get it here. A little Chinese kid in a sweat shop working for nothing sun up til sun down 7 days a week can outdo most Americans in the unions crying cos they aint getting a 5 dollar on the hour raise this year. Wall Street sees that profit real quick while slanting their eyes.

          • Mike

            23 years…. Hope you got some pension and hope you were able to get decent treatment for that diagnoses…. Sounds like you beat back what I have come to call the “Devil Dogs”…. For me being surrounded by far too much death and dying…. Hope you have found peace… Have a good weekend!….

          • SS BdM Fuhress ‘Savannah

            Mike I found the Creator in 2005. He is not any of the organized Gods/Saviors in Religion. I don’t think there is anything as Peace for the Human Mind. It’s all a challenge. You got to deal with it the best you can. To a lot I have failed, to me not but maybe so. But I go on seeking, for what, maybe the Peace you speak of? The beauty of Life shows up now and then, that’s enough to get me through. I’m sure I have not had the Death and dying on your level but I have a lot of kats and I’ve seen way 2 much of that dying and death. A 2 week 3 dream sequence of the Creator dealing with that 21 died. The first because I thought it wasn’t safe outside so brought it inside and then turned around in the kitchen, stepped in the hallway squarely on the little fella killing it. The meaning of those Dreams, Death it happens, you can do your best but it still happens. You have to say I love you to those things you love and go on. All are reincarnated in my view, even little kitties. To not go on the other choice is the wrong choice. And you cannot walk on Eggs shells without breaking them, you cannot stay at the level. So far the Weekends been decent. One day to go.

        • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

          Their is no free enterprise left in America. America has already failed and lives on foreign charity and soon will be classed as a banana republic.

          • SS BdM Fuhress ‘Savannah

            It was doomed from the start, Man cannot control his Greed.

    • squidgod_the_unbannable_2.0

      Not sure that blog commenters are the best source of information regarding the state of euphoria and/or power intoxication in a nation.

    • Vendetta

      Perceived wrongs? The only other contender I can think of for nation that’s been more wronged by foreign nations in the last 250 years is maybe the Democratic Republic of Congo…

      Nah, it really is China. An utterly unimaginable scale of horror and tragedy inflicted upon them between the Manchus, Western imperialists, and the Japanese for centuries.

      First thing to realize about Mao is that the scale of violence and death his regime is always blamed for was in fact the norm across the last two hundred years of Chinese history. The violence under Mao at least had the result of leaving China an independent and unified nation once again.

      Perceived wrongs…my God, why don’t you actually learn about the scale of the suffering China has been through and then see if their grievances are worthy of being sneered at.

      • shaneSL

        Agree! I am Chinese, western educated and not born in China but I know this. We all know about Tiananmen and Mao’s failed economic policies in the Great Leap Forward. But we also are very fair judges: He sucks at economics and led to loss of life (it did diminish Mao’s reputation in China and among the Chinese somewhat) but he will also always be remembered for largely returning stolen Chinese territories in Shanghai, Qingdao, Shandong, Guangzhou, Tianjin etc out of the hands of imperialists like the UK, Japan at the time, ending a British sponsored massive opium addiction amongst the population (with estimates of over 20 million people addicted to British opium sold by British drug peddlers and their East India Company – we know their names today eg Jardines etc), raising literacy in China amongst men AND women from merely 10% to over 90% by the end of Mao’s life, raising the status of women to equal status as men (altho cultural bias does still persist esp in rural communities), building a statewide government and ending the reign of local warlords that prey upon the people and cause wars internally, as well as built a military capable of defending the state for the first time since 1840 – able to fight to a standstill combined American, British, Korean and Australian troops in the Korean peninsula despite having inferior/little aircraft, artillery or tanks.

        So yes he is quite close historically with Qin Shi Huang (~220BC) who is celebrated for unifiying China and ending the Warring States period of the late Zhou Dynasty (800BC to 221BC) but yet is also reviled for his draconian measures at achieving this (including the oft quoted burying of Confucian scholars and eradication of political opponents). Nonetheless, his unification paved the way for the subsequent golden Ages in Chinese history beyond the Zhou – the Han Dynasty 200BC to 200AD, the Sui and Tang Dynasty 600-900AD, the Song Dynasty 960AD to 1100AD, the Ming Dynasty 1399 to 1600AD and the early Qing Dynasty from 1644 to ~1800AD – with the latter part in a stable but weak state as a result of complacency and lack of competition with the external world)

    • pellmellus

      I think you are correct in your assessment of China. Sydney is peddling the line we’ve heard before when the Soviets were viewed as a threat; they are simply paranoid, etc. from the West’s buildup so we have to be understanding. Hog wash. China wants to be world power, which I would have no problem with if they were a multi-party constitutional republic. But they are an authoritarian one party state and when they have the power, they will not play nice at all. Just wait and see.

      • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

        Are you saying America plays nice? America has been an expansionist nation since it was created. China is the world economic power taday thanks to American greed and political corruption. America no longer has the ability to manipulate world currencies

    • piyu2cool

      That’s correct. China is acting like WW2 Germany. First using coercive diplomacy to grab territories. It will launch a full scale invasion in 20 years time. The difference is that they are much more dangerous and more powerful. They also have a great foresight. Look at the way they annexed Tibet and Aksai Chin and are ruling over it now by means of oppression.

  • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

    Their is a lot left out of this article when it comes to China and it’s defense. Thanks to America and it’s constant threats to any country that will not bow to it China and Russia once traditional enemies are now ally’s for defense. It’s America and the western ally’s that have made the Chinese the economic powerhouse of the world today through greed and empire building. The best way to peace is for America to stop trying to dominate the world with military threats and stop interfering with these local conflicts that in most cases would be solved at the table instead of in war. The whole world including America would benefit by America leading by example instead of hypocrisy.

    • Mike

      Ah, Jack, I believe we tried that three times in the last 100 years and that did not work out so well (WW-l, WW-ll and Korea)….

      • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

        We tried nothing but expansionism since the country was created. America does not rule the world and will not occupy it much longer for corporations. America is just another pimple on the ass of the world and their is no such thing as exceptionalism. Supporting terrorism and creating war for profits is not the mark of leadership.

        • Mike

          You ever serve Jack? I’m thinking not, because if you had, you’d have gotten a more realistic view of what is really out there… Our little experiment has worked better than anything ever invented since the earth began and that has given you the high quality of life you (and I) enjoy… There are few places on this earth better than here…. I’m thinking that if you had found a better place you’d have gone there….. I’ve been all over this planet and because of that, I chose to live here and I thank God on a daily basis that there are young men and young women willing to step up and take my place on the line that is the only thing that has allowed us to keep having the best lives on this planet…. Jack, “Freedom is Not Free”, it takes sacrifice and a lot of money…. Consider volunteering to do your part and then you might have a little more realistic view of our little piece of heaven…..

          • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

            I served in two wars before you were born fool. If you had any sense of freedom you would not support terrorism by your country or any other country. America does not and never will rule the world. You need to get back to civics class and find out what America is really about.

          • Mike

            Actually Jack that probably is not true…. I was born in 1945,.. Dad was 101st from the start to the end. I was Special Ops (Airborne)… You serve combat in those wars Jack? Just trying to figure where you are coming from… i don’t believe I called you a “fool” either…..

  • Mike

    I’d like to suggest that you all find a copy of the book or CD “The Bear and The Dragon” by Tom Clancy…. I believe it was written about 15-20 years ago…. Some of Mr. Clancy’s books have had an interesting way of eventually coming to action (or almost coming to action thanks to our intelligence services)….. Or you could do the “Chamberlain thing” and keep your rose colored glasses on until it is to late………..

    • Don Bacon

      Mike, current reality trumps old fiction every time.

      • Mike

        Really, did you happen to notice what happen to China’s economy when, suddenly America stopped buying as the Market failure and Financial Panic of October 2007 unfolded?

        You ever serve, Don? Boy are you going to be surprised….. Do you really suspect that you have “no skin in the game”?

        • Don Bacon

          I did notice that China’s GDP growth rate dipped down to 8%, about four times the US’s.

  • thetruth

    Im all american but the truth is the truth.the writing is on the wall china/russia once they combine forces and decide to embargo the usa or anyone, it will happen. russia china have survived all wars throughout history, they have lost many battles but they have won all the wars, japan and other countries their size could easily be vaporized by 2 bombs in two minutes in a modern war, russia/china arent letting their countries become freak shows being run by freaks, the usa has become nothing but a freak show, is being re.occupied by individuals that cant run a bicycle factory let alone a nation, the usa has no borders and a sea of knowns/unknown have invaded our country in plain site, they have combined their efforts with domestic threats and work in plain view, we are letting freaks re.define our constitution/laws, just one of the following three can bring a country down in a few short years..no borders, too much openness, the electronic medium, the usa has all three working within against it, russia and china are just sitting in their rocking chairs and watching our country be re.occupied/ruled by people that they can steam,roll over without breaking a sweat. our fore fathers true words and intentions do not exist and the final outcome will be a repeat performance of the very things that drove them here and they fought against. thetruth

  • ziggy1988

    Hahaha, what utter garbage. China is far stronger – militarily and economically – than any other Asian country, INCLUDING and ESPECIALLY Japan. China’s military today is so modern that Japan no longer holds a technological edge, and in terms of numbers, China has a big edge over everyone in the Pacific. It, not the US, has the largest military in the world – its active duty force is larger than the entire US military (incl. the reserve components).

    Does Japan even have one nuclear weapon or ballistic missile? Nope. Does it have any stealth aircraft or a/c carriers or nuclear-powered submarines? No, no, and no.

    Even vis-a-vis the US military, the PLA has already closed the majority of formerly extant gaps and is working right now to closing the remaining few gaps.

    • pellmellus

      There is a lot more to a good military than plain numbers. Comms, battle links, GPS, command and control, intel, training, the list is very long. That is where China has a problem. For now.

      • shaneSL

        How about global presence with 80 million Chinese overseas and many millions in the US and Japan capable of massive sabotage and intelligence gathering?

        • http://john101b.ipage.com/globalwarming/climatechange.html Jack Everett —– Mato

          Of course you don’t mention how much of the world America occupies and creates rogue regimes for it’s corporate interests as well as manipulating other currencies while they whine about China doing the same thing.

    • piyu2cool

      China does not have much experience with fighting a full scale global war. America has an edge today.

    • Jacob

      Well ok, let’s go on your assertions here for a moment.

      China’s modern military. Their J-15 “flying shark” which in itself is a copy of the Sukhoi, has been dubbed by it’s own media “flopping fish”. The liaoning carrier is in no way battle ready, they are still years away from making it so, but putting trifles like this aside, and looking at what commentators like George Friedman from Stratfor have to say on the matter, China is trapped. They are a low income country, the vast majority of their people cannot afford the goods that they export, and, when the US and other countries, getting as jittery as they are about China’s assertions, diversify their manufacturing away from china, to places like Mexico, Vietnam and even back to the US, then China’s position becomes even more difficult.

      They would be wise not to be so belligerent, they could have continued their quiet rise unabated if they did that, but now they are squarely in the crosshairs of everyone, with no friends, except for Cambodia and North Korea, and getting ever louder about pressing their claims.

      The problems they face are colossal. Their is one of demographics too – the population is aging rapidly.

      I’m just an observer here, but I suggest if you want to get a decent interpretation of what is going on, have a look at Stratfors commentaries of China on YouTube, it will at least give you a fresh take.

      • nowar

        to me, your are quite objective. I agree very much.

    • nowar

      far stronger, how ridiculous. I have no idea how you come to this conclusion.
      China is a country with big population. But just like how Japan invaded China during the second world war. Its people did not fight together. Let along, nowadays most communist leaders send their next generations to US or Europe, I do not know how this country can win a battle now.

      Compare to Japan, China barely has any high technology. and enven for the nuclear weapon, I doubt China can launch it remotely…. maybe china can only launch the nuclear weapon inside China.

  • Sid Tran

    Don’t worry the Chinamen will be taught a lesson that future generations learn soon!

  • TDog

    Larry Wortzel’s interpretation of history is skewed to say the least. In all of his aforementioned examples of China launching a preemptive retaliatory attack, he fails to note that in every instance China gave its opponent ample opportunity to back down. The US, through intermediaries in India and Switzerland, was told to back off from the Yalu River. India actually broke off border negotiations with China and engaged in the “Forward Policy” of placing outposts and fortifications in the disputed border area with China. And Vietnam was told to back off of its invasion of Cambodia, which it did not. Rather than being instances of Chinese aggression, all of these were actually the logical conclusion to diplomacy. As war is diplomacy by other means, China simply let the other party know that negotiations were still ongoing, albeit on the battlefield.

    I wonder, though, if Wortzel remembers a little thing called World War II. It was Japan and not China that launched all sorts of invasions and sneak attacks without any regard to any of the treaties it had signed or laws it agreed to adhere to. Oh well… so much for “experts.”

    • Mike

      No, the problem was that Truman did not let General MacArther use atomic weapons on those massed Chinese troops, in defense of our troops, the minute they crossed the Yalu….

      • Don Bacon

        And beyond that, Truman fired his ass for insubordination and stupidity.

        • Mike

          I would not suggest that you say that around any of the thousands of American soldiers and Marines that were stationed just South of the Yalu and at the Chosin….. Nope you never serve either. Just what we need is another armchair coaster who was never there on a Defense site… Geezz.. :(

          • shaneSL

            You need to read Sun Tzu’s Art of War – the minute the US used nuclear weapons, they would have won the Battle of Korea – but they would have lost the war at large – becoming the new rogue state with the USSR moving in to assume the role of protector for all free countries in the world against an aggressive WMD using superpower. ie. the US would have won the battle but lost the war. Go read up first and reconsider. You are only using western military texts that only teach you how to win battles.

          • Mike

            Shane,
            I’m an old Special Operations guy… This text was required reading… I understand where you are coming from.. That said, the biggest mistake we ever made was so arming the Russians that they became a world threat when we demilitarized and went home at the end of WW-ll and began having babies. We were so unprepared after only five years that we had virtually nothing to stop the communist aggression from the North.

            Should we have pushed that far North when we knew the Chinese were massed and the Russians had Atomic Weapons?That has been debated forever… Should we have used the 10th Mountain Division rather than the 25th from Hawaii to fight in those brutal Mountain, Winter conditions? Should we have gone there at all?

            All that becomes mute when we put our young men in harms way as then we have an absolute obligation to use

          • Mike

            everything at our disposal to protect them and assure their success in their mission.. Truman allowed MacArthur to push that far North, then when the Chinese invaded, refused to allow them the protection of nuclear weapons….. In the history of America, in my opinion, there has never been a greater abandonment of Americans in the field of battle, than that day…

            The only good thing to come out of that disaster, was that America never forgot that lesson and never demilitarized again.

            That said, if the Chinese ever come calling again, they are going to get one of the biggest fights of their lives, because the old adage, “we’d rather be Dead than Red” is as strong today as it was in the 50′s and now we have the ability along with the will to make the attempted taking of America, and then the rest of the world a very bloody undertaking… Again comes to mind another old adage: “Freedom Is Not Free”….

      • TDog

        And that has nothing to do with the fact that China did not launch a “sneak attack” of any variety. The end result of the Korean War has nothing to do with the fact that Wortzel has misrepresented Chinese actions and history in an effort to validate his own skewed hypothesis.

    • piyu2cool

      China will soon collapse like a pack of cards. Wait for some more years when the Tibetans and people from Xinjiang rise against CCP. You are working for CCP’s 50 cent army and you will be jobless soon.

      • klseklse

        Bingo friend. China will suffer huge financial losses when the American declared insolvent. Very true indeed. Also, Tibetan and Xinjiang will be fighting ground for any potential conflict.

  • Lazarus

    The Vietnamese hardly “chewed up” the invading Chinese forces during the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese border war. The Vietnamese were soundly defeated and the PLA had kicked open the road to Hanoi before deciding that they had done enough to humble their former Vietnamese proteges.

    • tpdallas

      Lmao hahaha yeah right, the Vietcong kick the Chink ass and you know it.

  • Al Sharpton

    Obama run for president of China would win by a landslide

  • Al Sharpton

    Obama Care Law of the land so get over it whitey! The Black Man shall rule the day once more without breaking a sweat! Lovely babe that’s my bag full of taters. let everybody say Al Sharpton don’t play.

  • Al Sharpon

    I owe my soul to the NAACP but I owe my life to our leader king Obama. Long live and rule the king.

  • LookBothPersepectives

    I noticed the surging level of propaganda articles (mainly from the west) to antagonise China. Is this to blunt public reaction to AirSea Battle and to encourage war-mongering to support the China Containment Policy? The western mainstream media tries to
    promote ‘sinophobia’ but do it to a fault without realizing it. Their journalism is quite contradictory as one time they would demonise China as a rising power and an imminent threat, while other times they would downplay China’s capability as immature and weak. There’s no truth behind their clams and reflects stunning hypocrisy and double standards. They only way to prevent a conflict to happen between China and mainly USA is to compromise with dialogue. Talk to each and negotiate. Offer solutions to all parties and peacefully resolve tensional issues. Don’t just claim that the country is a bystander. Get involved and help constructively with respect to others.

  • stoner

    Shame On You “leading analyst”.Shame On Heritage Foundation.

  • Sejarah Melayu

    The US shutdown is good news to all the people of the world, except for the
    Americans & its Zionism allies. The plan to make war in Syria had to be
    abandoned, as now the US doesn’t have the money to even pay for its jet fuel
    for its fighter planes. Almost all airborne training except for mission in
    Afghanistan had to be shelved and more than 2/3 of its fighter planes had to
    be grounded. Even some of the airplane technicians had to be furloughed. No
    more war is good for the peaceful co-existance for the people of the world,
    but bad for the American & its Zionism allies. Now they don’t even have the
    money to fly the jets, bomb & kill other people anymore…. ;-) .

    So Indians, if you are a peaceful & loving people, don’t let the arrogance & brutal Americans in term of financing, as the Americans can use this money to promote more wars in other parts of the world.

    Stop the war! Stop the bombings! Stop the genocide! Indians, stop purchase any military equipments from the Americans!

  • Sejarah Melayu

    The China threat is a hoax!!! By promoting the China threat of military expansion towards South East Asia, the US has managed to convince some stupid ASEAN countries to let the US to base its fighter planes & military inside their own countries. The US plans is actually to scare the shit out of the ASEANs. And when the ASEANs are scare shit of the Chinese, they unconsciously let the Americans occupy their countries with its military.

    The same thing happen to the Arab Gulf countries. The US managed a propaganda
    war against the Iraqis for decades, saying the Iraqis have chemical weapons,
    developing the nuclear weapons & etc. If you let the Iraqis developed the
    nuclear weapons, sooner or later the Iraqis will be a threat to whole the Arab Gulf States. Sooner or later the Iraqis might start a war & occupy the smaller & defendless Arab Gulf states.

    Thus, to prevent the future Iraqi aggression against them, these stupid Arab
    countries with their corrupted leaders agree to let the Americans to base its
    military personnals and fighter planes inside their countries, in the pretext to protect them from the Iraqis. But the Arab Gulf states are fool Arabs. It’s all a hoax. In the end, the Americans managed to occupied all of the Arab Gulf states without even firing a single bullet!!!

    Now, once the US already have a foothold in these stupid Arab states, you think that it will be easy to kick the Americans out? U think those stupid Arab sheikhs, willing to go to war against the Americans? No way. Let me become a billionaire, buy some English football clubs while the majority of my fellow citizens suffers.

    In Sun Tzu’s Art of War, Chapter 3: Attack by Stratagem, he said “In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy’s country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is better to recapture an army entire than to destroy it, to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire than to destroy them.”

    Another of his words, ” Therefore the skillful leader subdues the enemy’s troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.”

    In addition, he says, “With his forces intact he will dispute the mastery of the Empire, and thus, without losing a man, his triumph will be complete. This is the method of attacking by stratagem.”

    Thus, it looks like the greatest triumph of the US military is not the occupation of Iraq, but the occupation of the stupid Arab Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait & Oman, without even firing a single bullet & without even losing a single American soldier. The Arabs leaders have been deceived and they are such morons!

    By the way, I’m a Malaysian & a Muslims, and I detest the wasteful & corrupted
    habits of the Arab leaders. These are the Wahabbis, spreading their extreme
    “Islamic” ideology to the rest of the Muslim world. The Libyas, Iraqis, Afghanistans & Syrias have all been living peacefully together for generations. Until these stupid Arab morons coming to these peaceful Islamic countries & spreading their extreme brand of Wahabbi ideology, which is not Islamic at all.

    Islam, or “Salam” means peace. But the Wahhabi ideology only existed during the 1st World War, by Muhammad Abdul Wahab in Saudi Arabia. The Wahhabi
    ideology spread terror & sectarian wars between the Sunnis & the Syiahs. Whereas, before this, the Sunnis & Syiahs have been living peacefully in Iraq, Syria & Afghanistan for generations.

    - DON’T BE DECEIVED BY THE STUPID WAHHABI IDEOLOGY.
    - DON’T BE DECEIVED BY THE MORONS ARAB LEADERS OF THE GULF STATES.
    - & DON’T BE DECEIVED BY THE CUNNING PROPAGANDA WAR BY THE US AGAINST THE CHINESE.
    - CHINA IS NOT A THREAT TO ASEAN. BUT IT IS THE US THAT ARE A THREAT TO THE ASEANS & ALL THE PEACEFUL NATIONS OF THE WORLD.

  • SolidBro

    What it all boils down to is this: (1) China has numerous land forces and cannot be invaded in a land war on the Asian mainland, and (2) China is extremely weak in force projection beyond its shores, with a navy that is vastly inferior to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (and a total joke compared to the US Pacific Fleet alone) and an air force that would not last very long against Japan’s vastly superior BVR (beyond visual range) air-to-air missiles and radar systems with AWACS integration and also the Aegis shipboard AD system – plus China has no meaningful amphibious force projection capability. China rules the Asian mainland but it toothless beyond its own shores.

  • SolidBro

    BTW, the most likely area for actual large-scale combat is between China and Russia over the vast resources of Siberia. China is already moving people and factories into Siberia with Russia’s assent. Now China is stirring the pot in Siberia and trying to get the Siberians to push for autonomy from Moscow as a wedge. Putin and the Russian military will not simply allow their pot of gold/oil/diamonds/industrial metals be taken by China, and China will not stop trying to steal it. So at some point in the next 20-40 years, China and Russia will tangle in Siberia – they already have a long-standing border dispute and have fought battles at the Amur river in the past. Both countries are very – ah, shall we say pigheaded or stubborn about not losing face – and I expect it will degenerate into a nuclear exchange.

    America’s most pressing concern really is that we are downwind from the fallout pattern!

  • Gene Rook

    History contradicts a number of opinions; The greatest threat to China is the dissidents and greed within. Throughout history the Empire builders have taking position as “puppet master” of one country after another (Including the United States) for the sole purpose of “profit”.

    As we speak China is fighting an internal war between the special interest of the few in power vs. the populations interest.

    Within 20 years China will be a divided nation due to internal conflicts and suffer trade restrictions due to current and future exploitation and expansionism.

    Laugh…hard and long….just Like the U.S.S.R., Hitler, Romans, Egyptians, or thousands of other “invincible nations”.