WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 29: Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testifies on Capitol Hill, April 29, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Senate Armed Services held a hearing to examine worldwide threats. (Photo by Graeme Jennings – Pool/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON: Top US intelligence officials warned today that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be deterred from continuing his invasion of Ukraine, but predicted that should Russia successfully overthrow the Ukrainian government, it will likely face an intense insurgency effort for years to come.

“If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be persistent and significant insurgency,” said Avril Haines, director of national intelligence. 

Haines’ comments came as top intelligence officials appeared before lawmakers today to discuss the intelligence community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, which provides an unclassified overview of national security threats ranging from nation-states to terrorism to global health risks. Despite the breadth of the annual assessment, the hearing was dominated by questions about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

CIA director William Burns said that Putin’s assumptions for going to war were “profoundly flawed” and that analysts within the CIA struggle to see how Putin’s endgame — installing a pro-Russia government and sustaining it — will be workable for Moscow. 

For more coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, click here.

“Where that leads I think is for an ugly next few weeks in which he doubles down with scant regard for civilian casualties — in which urban fighting can get even uglier,” Burns said. “One thing I’m absolutely convinced of, and I think our analysts across the intelligence community are absolutely convinced of, is the Ukrainians are going to continue to resist fiercely and effectively.”

Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said with “low confidence” that Russian military had suffered between 2,000 to 4,000 killed in the first 11 days of the invasion. According to Burns, those numbers are far higher than the military anticipated because they expected a “quick, decisive victory.” (In comparison, almost 20 years of war in Afghanistan led to just under 2,500 American KIA.)

“We assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues,” Haines said.

The annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, completed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is being released as the United States and several European allies send shipments containing thousands of different types of military equipment to the Ukrainian military, which has put up fierce resistance in the early days of Russia’s campaign.

“We assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with U.S. forces,” the report states. “Russia seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual noninterference in both countries’ domestic affairs and U.S. recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former Soviet Union.”

But while the intelligence report released Monday afternoon warned of Moscow’s modernization efforts, especially geared toward long-range strike and nuclear weapons, it also highlighted the limitations of the Russian military on full-display in recent logistical problems seen inside Ukraine.

“Moscow has the wherewithal to deploy forces in strategically important regions, but the farther it deploys from Russia, the less able it probably will be to sustain intensive combat operations,” the report states.

The report also notes that the Russia will remain the most prominent nuclear threat to the United States “for the foreseeable future” as it expands and modernizes its nuclear arsenal. Moscow views its nuclear capabilities as a crucial deterrent against the West.

That point was underscored recently by Putin’s veiled nuclear threat against Western nations ahead of his military’s invasion in Ukraine, warning that interference in the conflict would lead to “consequences they have never seen,” in addition to his recent decision to increase the nation’s nuclear force readiness level.

“Moscow views its nuclear capabilities as necessary for maintaining deterrence and achieving its goals in a potential conflict against the United States and NATO, and it sees a credible nuclear weapons deterrent as the ultimate guarantor of the Russian Federation,” the report states.

China and Russia

Officials also warned lawmakers that China and Russia are increasingly working together, with Haines stating that the relationship is “across a range of sectors and security.” However, Haines stated that Russia’s actions toward Ukraine could affect their relationship. 

“It’s not yet clear to me exactly how it will affect the trajectory of their relationship,” Haines said.

Burns told lawmakers, concerned about Chinese aggression toward Taiwan, that China had taken notice of the sweeping international sanctions placed on Russia and has likely influenced their calculus on action against Taiwan.

“They’re a little bit unsettled by the way in which Vladimir Putin has driven Europeans and Americans much closer together,” Burns said. “I think they’ve valued their relationship with Europe and valued what they believe to be their capacity to try to drive wedges between us and the Europeans.”

Outside of collaboration, the report shows China and Russia are both investing in similar military capabilities to keep pace with the United States. In space, both China and Russia are developing satellite reconnaissance; position, navigation and timing; and satellite communications into weapons and command and control systems. China, the report states, is “working to match or exceed U.S. capabilities in space,” while Russia will focus on integration of its space capabilities that would allow Moscow to “more quickly identify, track, and target U.S. satellites during a conflict.”

Both nations are developing counterspace capabilities designed to knock out US and allied satellites. That assessment comes on the heels of Russia’s anti-satellite weapons test that sent roughly 1,500 pieces of space debris flying and led to safety concerns for the International Space Station.

According to the report, the Chinese military is fielding both destructive and nondestructive ground- and space-based antisatellite weapons. Counterspace operations will be “integral” to any military campaigns by China, it stated.

The report also confirms that China’s Hypersonic Glide Vehicle flight test last year flew around the world and impacted inside China.