Finland to apply for NATO membership; Sweden expected soon

WASHINGTON: Finland’s political leadership announced this morning that they support joining NATO “without delay,” paving the way for a major expansion of the military alliance.

The statement from President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin does not constitute the final word on Finland’s decision, but Finland’s parliament has been poised for weeks to approve a NATO push. While it may be several days for the final checks and votes to occur, today’s announcement is a de facto NATO application.

“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance,” the two said in a joint statement. “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement that Finland “would be warmly welcomed into NATO, and the ascension process would be smooth and swift…. Finnish membership would demonstrate that NATO’s door is open, and that Finland decides its own future.”

After Finland formally applies, every member state of NATO has to ratify the application. That leaves a potential months-long process ahead, during which Russia could move to intervene. A top Finnish defense official told Breaking Defense last month that Helsinki was preparing for Russian “consequences” should they make the NATO move.

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A Russian government spokesman told Western media that NATO expansion is “definitely” seen as a threat to Moscow and promised a response of some kind, without going into details. Asked Wednesday to respond to Russian concerns, Niinisto was clear: “My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror,” he said.

Although Finland is the first mover, it is widely expected that Sweden will also apply for NATO membership in the coming days. The two nations have spent the last month in a diplomatic whirlwind of meetings with NATO members to both shore up support for their membership and to line up potential defensive partners in case Russia moves to attack either nation.

The most vocal support for both nations came from the United Kingdom on Wednesday, when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Sweden and signed a new security agreement. He was quoted by Reuters as saying, “What it says is that in the event of a disaster, or in the event of an attack on either of us, then we will come to each other’s assistance, including with military assistance.” The UK later announced an agreement with Finland had also been reached, though details were slim.

Just a few months ago, the idea of Finland joining NATO seemed far fetched. A 2021 poll found that roughly 26% of Finns were in favor of joining the alliance, 40% were against, and the remaining population was undecided. (In Sweden, a 2022 poll found 42% in favor and 37% against — a stronger starting point, but still not enough to cause politicians to take it seriously.) But Russia’s invasion in Ukraine saw an immediate spike in those in favor, to the point where the latest polling in Finland has support for NATO membership over 70%.