Finnish NATO decision coming in ‘weeks,’ with Swedish choice not far behind

WASHINGTON: The clock appears to have started on Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

In a joint press conference today, Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin and Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson openly discussed the potential for joining the alliance, something that seemed almost impossible just six months ago — before Russia’s Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of non-NATO member Ukraine.

Marin stated that a decision on membership would come “within weeks, not months,” while Andersson indicated a security review, which is expected to inform any Swedish decision, could be completed earlier than a May 31 target date.

In Washington, there is growing consensus among experts and interlocutors with both European countries that NATO membership will happen, with Finland likely making the formal jump in the coming weeks and Sweden following shortly after. Two events from today are likely to throw fuel onto that fire.

First, a Swedish paper reported that Andersson has decided to apply for NATO membership by June; her Social Democrats party has traditionally been opposed to joining the alliance, and the view is that if it reverses its stance, membership is a done deal. And in the morning, Finland released a new security policy report, which is expected to start the formal discussion in their Parliament around NATO membership.

The Finnish report features significant discussion about why joining NATO would benefit Finland’s security and stresses that it should not impact Finland’s defense spending dramatically nor impinge on any sovereign decision making processes, including, the report stresses, any requirement for nuclear weapons to be housed on Finnish soil.

While not weighing in one way or the other on the question of membership, the report does note that ultimately should “Finland and Sweden become NATO members, the threshold for using military force in the Baltic Sea region would rise, which would enhance the stability of the region in the long term.” Reading between the thinly veiled lines, that means that to the authors of the report, Finland and Sweden joining NATO would increase, not harm, the security of both nations.

RELATED: Finland preparing for Russian ‘consequences’ if it joins NATO: top MoD official

The report then spends significant time discussion how Finland could move to strengthen its domestic resiliency to a potential threat. While the report does not tie these challenges specifically to joining NATO, the specter hanging over any decision by the two nations to join the alliance is the waiting period between when an announcement could be made and when the Article 5 protections would kick in — that is, a dangerous period when Russia could make attempts to disrupt NATO membership.

“Of course, Russia will react, but we don’t know how. And we need to be prepared” should Finland decide to join NATO, Esa Pulkkinen, the permanent secretary at Finland’s Ministry of Defense, told Breaking Defense last week. “We need to be ready, of course, to face consequences.”

While noting that with Russia, all things are on the table, Pulkkinen said the concern is less about a military invasion — “we are very well prepared” for that, he said — than hybrid threats Russia could push against the Finnish public.

Those concerns are spelled out in the report, which states that as “the security environment changes, Finland is preparing for the possibility of becoming a target of exceptional, extensive and multifaceted hybrid influence activities both in the short and long term. These activities may involve the use of military pressure or military force. Governmental hybrid influence activities are linked to Finland’s security policy choices. This requires that we adapt our concept for comprehensive security to the current security situation.”

Among the areas of concern the report calls out:

• Combating information activities, with concerns that Russia will attempt to influence the Finnish public with misinformation.
• Updating the emergency powers act, which would allow the Finnish government to respond to new threats, including the “instrumentalization of migration,” as seen by Belarus’ forcing refugees into the borders of neighboring countries.
• Upgrading cybersecurity, including specifically protecting critical supply chains and making sure liens of communication are clear between the government and the private sector.
• Preparing the psychological well-being of the Finnish people, particularly after two years of COVID. “Critical factors with respect to psychological resilience are undisrupted basic services, ensured minimum income and the possibility to maintain contacts with loved ones and other communities. Maintaining cultural and library services support psychological wellbeing and social inclusion,” as will working with non-governmental organizations such as Churches or civil groups.

Already, Finland is having to grapple with economic fallout from its support of sanctions against Russia. “The loss of direct trade with Russia will cut growth mostly through exports and industrial production. As a result of higher prices, growth in gross domestic product will slow down, following weaker household purchasing power and slower growth in consumption. Growing uncertainty about the future will postpone investments,” warned the report, before going into greater detail.

“In practice, trade in goods and services with Russia is expected to cease completely. In addition to exports of goods subject to sanctions, exports of other products and services to Russia have already decreased considerably. Russia accounts for 4.5 per cent of Finland’s exports and the export of goods and services to Russia accounts for approximately 1.6 per cent of Finland’s value added. Russia is a more important trading partner to Finland than to the EU on average. The end to the supply of commodities and raw materials from Ukraine and Russia will also be reflected in Finland as disruptions to the availability of intermediate products. Finland’s trade with Russia will not recover, because the sanctions are expected to have long-term effects. Companies will be able to find new suppliers of intermediate products and substitute markets for their end products, but this will be a slow process.”

That assertion backs up something Pulkkinen told Breaking Defense: that Finland is already at odds with Russia, and can expect blowback even if they do not join NATO.

There is reason to believe Russia would try to influence the debate around the two nations joining NATO through irregular means. When Montenegro sought to join NATO, a coup attempted that has been tied to Russia sought to overthrow the government and install anti-NATO leadership. And when North Macedonia was working on a referendum that would allow NATO membership, Russian influence campaigns were well underway.

Already Russia has issued warnings for Finland and Sweden, like in the first week of the Ukraine conflict when a top Russian spokesperson said that the two joining NATO would have “serious military and political consequences, which would require our country to make response steps.”