After 5-year lapse, second Saudi Eurofighter Typhoon deal not dead – but not close

BELFAST — Despite being trapped in limbo for five-years, there are signs that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia remains interested in buying an additional tranche of Eurofighter Typhoons — and that the government in London would support such a sale if KSA wants to move forward.

When exactly a deal could be closed continues to be up in the air however. While the UK says it is ready to “fully support” a deal with the Saudis, manufacturer BAE Systems does not have any “timescale expectations” for a second tranche to move forward, according to statements to Breaking Defense.

Just over five years ago, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Intent aimed at closing the deal for 48 aircraft that would be added to KSA’s current fleet of 72 Typhoons. But that deal hit a major roadblock when the UK suspended arms sales to KSA in 2019, after the Court of Appeal in London ruled them unlawful and found that the government had failed to properly assess the risk of civilian harm, linked to the Saudi-led coalition being criticized for airstrikes in Yemen.

UK-manufactured aircraft and weapons, including Eurofighter Typhoon, Tornado fighter jets, Paveway IV bombs, Brimstone and Stormshadow missiles, were all used during the conflict. While Eurofighter could legally have been cleared by the UK for a second KSA sale since mid-2020, Germany’s refusal to issue arms export licences to Riyadh in the wake of US-Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and Yemen war involvement prevented the sale from moving forward. The UK and Germany are part of a four country Eurofighter consortium that also includes Spain and Italy, with Berlin’s stance effectively amounting to a veto over the fighter jet being supplied to KSA.

Germany, however, appears to have changed position on the matter after reports emerged in September 2022 that Chancellor Olaf Scholz approved “several deals on arms exports” ahead of a visit to the Middle East, according to DW, a German public broadcaster. One of those deals valued at  €36.1 million, allowed KSA to buy Eurofighter and Tornado fighter jet weapons and equipment, reported the German news publisher Der Spiegel.

“Germany has subsequently delivered spare parts packages for both Tornado and Typhoon….. including support and upgrade packages for IRST [Infared Search and Track] systems,” said Francis Tusa, a UK defense analyst. “Compared to what the German position on exports to Saudi Arabia was three years ago, it is now almost completely about face.”

In other words, the UK would appear to be free from past export obstacles, especially with a ceasefire in Yemen easing geopolitical pressure on arms sales — meaning the only holdup is a will from London and Riyadh to get it done.

Which is why eyebrows were raised when defense delegations from the UK and KSA visited BAE Systems Eurofighter Typhoon production facility in Warton, England, in December 2022. At the time, Saudi minister of defense Khalid bin Salman posted on social media that he had been “briefed on the company’s future plans and strategies” and air combat capabilities.

Surprisingly, Bin Salman did not make any reference to the status of the Typhoon follow-on order, nor did the UK MoD or BAE. But the announcement last month of Riyadh and London committing to a “Partnering Feasibility Study” to explore future combat air technologies would seem to set the stage for strengthened fighter collaboration — and, perhaps, open the door back up for movement on Eurofighter.

Even so, such collaboration clearly doesn’t mean the follow-on order is imminent, and the latest BAE Systems annual report fails to make any reference to it, despite a passage dedicated to KSA military business opportunities. The company said that for KSA, it will prioritize, “Extending Salam Typhoon contract; securing orders for additional support and training, new equipment, upgrades and defence infrastructure programmes.”

Interestingly, the company also suggested that it will continue working with the UK government “to ensure that the export licences required to enable the Group to fulfil its contractual obligations in the Kingdom are in place.”

BAE made £2.5 billion from arms sales to KSA in 2022, accounting for 11% of all annual sales. The ties between the two are so close that the manufacturer said, in the annual report, that the three pillars of the KSA “Vision 2030” of a vibrant society, thriving economy and ambitious nation “are directly supported and championed by the Group,” including through the “localisation” of sovereign defense capabilities.

BAE Systems “continue to address current and potential new requirements as part of long standing agreements between the UK Government and Saudi Arabia,” said a company spokesperson when asked by Breaking Defense about the current status of the follow-on order. “No timescale expectations have been set for a further batch of Typhoons.”

The KSA Ministry of Defense declined to comment.

“The Royal Saudi Air Force has successfully operated Typhoon aircraft for many years,” said a UK MoD spokesperson in a statement to Breaking Defense. “If the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia concluded that a purchase of additional Typhoon aircraft, or an upgrade to their current fleet, matched their capability needs, then we would fully support that and work closely with our Eurofighter Partner Nations.”

The current UK position is far less certain compared to the language used when the Memorandum of Intent was signed and clear reference was made to “finalise discussions” for the order. The new reference to “capability needs” fitting with a follow-on order, suggests uncertainty or doubt creeping into considerations.

Getting a deal done would be hugely important for the Eurofighter consortium. Outside of what impact that will have on UK export trade, the collapse of a new order is likely to have a sizeable industrial impact at BAE’s Warton facility as Typhoon production winds down ahead of a transition to Tempest and Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) manufacturing.

“We continue to pursue a number of export opportunities for Typhoon to support continuity of combat aircraft production through to Tempest,” said the BAE spokesperson.

A dearth of Typhoon export sales largely caused by losing competitive tenders to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter means Kuwait and Qatar are the only export customers currently receiving new Typhoon aircraft. Leonardo is responsible for the main share of Kuwait aircraft manufacturing and deliveries, while the Warton line builds Qatari jets.

“Qatar Typhoon and Hawk [trainer aircraft] programme is progressing well, with all nine Hawk aircraft accepted by the customer and eight Typhoon aircraft delivered in 2022 and in service with the Qatari Emiri Air Force,” said the BAE spokesperson. “Further deliveries will be made over the course of 2023.”

Newer “home nation” orders from Germany and Spain, alongside testing and delivery of the Eurofighter Typhoon European Common Radar System Mark 2 (ECRS Mk2) for the Royal Air Force, gives BAE near-term production security, but if low-rate initial production for the next-generation Tempest or the crewed fighter developed for GCAP does not start, as expected, until around 2035 or beyond, the Warton line faces the prospect of being mothballed.

“Warton is certainly able to mothball the line, remember they did it with Tornado production, when there was a three year gap between deliveries ending and production restarting again, they kept the line ready to go at a moment’s notice, which cost them, but it is doable,” said Tusa.

The BAE spokesperson stated, “Typhoon manufacturing is currently underpinned by the orders from Qatar, Germany and Spain which will ensure continuity of production of major units beyond the mid-2020s.”