ANKARA, TURKIYE- MAY 1: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the presentation ceremony of the National Combat Aircraft KAAN on May 1, 2023 in Ankara, Türkiye. According to the President’s statements, the National Combat Aircraft (MMU) or TF-X “Kaan” project, which will enter the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, is considered an important step in Turkey’s aviation and defense industry. (Photo by Yavuz Ozden/ dia images via Getty Images)
BEIRUT — The conflict in Gaza dominated the news at the end of 2023 and, with few signs of resolution on the horizon, it will likely do so in 2024 as well.
But other themes will be worth watching in the coming year, from more cooperation in the maritime domain to an increasingly intense Gulf rivalry to potentially new help for indigenous fifth generation fighter development.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2023 and look forward to what 2024 may hold.]
Here’s what we’ll especially be keeping an eye on in the region in the new year:
New, Closer International Security Cooperation On Waterways
One potential development that is directly related to the war in Gaza is the current, unprecedented threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The armed Houthi group in Yemen have claimed several missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels, and one dramatic ship seizure.
In response, US officials have floated the idea of yet another joint maritime task force, to go with others already in action in the region. Earlier this month White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters the US was in talks with “other countries about a maritime task force of sorts involving the ships from partner nations alongside the United States in ensuring safe passage … of ships in the Red Sea.”
Even if the Gaza conflict were to stop tomorrow, the international community has been shown how vulnerable vessels in the Red Sea can be — lessons already learned in the Arabian Gulf and off the coast of east Africa.
In years past greater cooperation on land, to the extent that an Middle East NATO with Israel’s involvement, seemed possible. But while the idea is not dead, the currently conflict in Gaza has almost certainly put that security dream out of reach.
Saudi, Emirati Competition
It seems that any time a major defense deal is signed in the Middle East, large companies from either Saudi Arabia (KSA) or the United Arab Emirates are holding the pen.
The two states definitely have many interests in common, especially from an economic point of view like the fuel prices, but each of them is pulling the rope toward itself to rise as a regional leader in the defense sector. And both have also made their competition something of a zero-sum game: Both are pursuing what’s known as Vision 2030, which mandates certain amounts of domestic production for defense products.
Companies from both nations have signed a series of large international deals, and both host very high-profile defense trade shows. (Abu Dhabi is hosting a defense tech show in January, and Riyadh is hosting its second World Defense Show this February — stay tuned for Breaking Defense’s coverage of both.)
In 2024, the competition between the two Gulf powers is expected only to grow more intense. KSA has the largest defense procurement budget regionally, while the UAE has been working for longer time on developing its defense industry and is, therefore, a bit more advanced in its strategy.
Turkey’s KAAN Fighter
Meanwhile, a little further northwest, Turkey is in the midst of developing an indigenous fifth generation fighter jet, dubbed KAAN with help from Azerbaijan, and 2024 could be the year a third country jumps in the game: Pakistan.
In August, a senior Turkish defense official said, “Pretty soon, within this month, we will be discussing with our Pakistani counterparts to officially include Pakistan in our national fighter jet program, KAAN.”
After losing its deal for F-35 fighter jets, Ankara is suffering from an air force capability gap. KAAN could also take to the air for the first time in 2024 (Turkish officials originally hoped for December 2023), but it’s not expected to go operational for another decade.
That leaves Turkey with the fighter gap, and that means this upcoming year Ankara may either contract officially for European Eurofighter Typhoons, or attempt to smooth things over enough with American lawmakers that it can complete the purchase of long-sought F-16s. Otherwise, it’ll be left to rush the KAAN along.
Once KAAN does come online, Turkey will be the first Middle East or North African nation to operate a fifth-generation fighter, with the exception of Israeli F-35s.
