HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — European countries should have an initial ‘drone wall’ architecture mapped out within the next couple of months, but a trio of senior defense officials contend that right now, detection is the name of the game.
“Detection — especially detection on the low altitudes — this is the most difficult part and when you add to the drones, the low flying cruise missiles, then the detection is really a challenge,” Estonian Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur told Breaking Defense Saturday, amid a wave of Russian drone incursions and sightings across Europe that have put the continent on high alert.
Pevkur said that today in Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces are unable to down somewhere between 20 percent to 30 percent of the incoming Russian drones, and accurately detecting swarms remains a challenge.
During separate interviews with Breaking Defense at the annual Halifax International Security Forum this past weekend, the top general for the Netherlands Gen. Onno Eichelsheim and Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Italy’s Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone concurred.
“If you look at how you can detect the drones, you need different systems,” Eichelsheim said, citing the need for a combination of acoustic and passive systems, along with radars. “And it is true that having drones at the low level will mean that they are not easily detectable if you look at the wider range of areas that you have to protect.”
Pevkur challenged the defense industry to help tackle the hurdle and find better detection solutions for weapons flying 500-plus kilometers per hour (310 mph) at 100 to 200 meters (330 to 660 feet) above the ground. But keep in mind, he added, that cost is a factor, especially in peacetime when militaries do not have teams on “high readiness 24/7” essentially spread across the full length of the borders every 5 kilometers (3 miles).
“So, many challenges [are] ahead of us, and this is why the detection comes first, and then how to have the more or less automated interceptors,” Pevkur said. “The visual confirmation has to be there. So, a lot of challenges for the industry, because the governments are not building the equipment.”
Looking To Commercial Solutions
Suspected Russian drone incursions across Europe have prompted NATO countries to bolster air defenses across the Eastern Flank and deeper into the continent. As senior defense officials gathered in Halifax last weekend, for example, drones were spotted over the Netherland’s Volkel air force base, and air traffic was suspended above the Dutch city of Eindhoven.
In October, after purported Russian drones were spotted in Polish airspace, Dutch F-35 fighters were dispatched to take them out. But that’s a prohibitively expensive response to a relatively inexpensive threat, part of the impetus for the European Union’s call for a “drone wall.” The initial goal, have it fully functional by the end of 2027.
Aligned directly to the European Union’s Defense Readiness Roadmap, the bloc has floated plans to develop the drone wall, formally known as the Drone Defence Initiative, as one of four “flagship” programs. According to European Commission documentation [PDF], the main thrust of the effort revolves around a “360[-degree] approach, as a multilayered, technologically advanced system with interoperable counter-drone capabilities for detection, tracking, and neutralisation, as well as capabilities to hit ground targets by leveraging drone technology for precision strikes.”
The initial architecture, Eichelsheim explained, should be ready within a couple of months, though he warned there will never be 100 percent protection, and there will always be “flaws” in the system.
“I anticipate having that available within months and then you can immediately start filling that architecture in,” he said. “The capabilities are actually already there.”
“Architectural-wise and C2- [command and control] wise, you can get this straight within a year at least and then fill it,” the Netherlands top military leader added.
While that initial plan is still in the works, Dragone surmised that off-the-shelf weapons could be used to tackle the broader drone problem and drive the price of the per-unit kill down.
“If we are speaking about drones, I think that everything is off the shelf,” the Italian admiral said. “As far as low-flying, high-speed missiles, we are improving our capabilities.”
But he said one area still needs work: defense against hypersonic missiles.
“Hypersonic defense is that the last, the last challenge that we are facing, and we are working hard on that.”
Drone wall detection and shooting capabilities aside, both Pevkur and Eichelsheim said they are also trying to tackle questions about airspace.
“We have to separate the peacetime and the wartime,” Pevkur said, noting that in peacetime the military can’t simply close the airspace and shoot at everything it sees, or “you will shoot down a small Cessna with a father and a kid on board.”
A point that touches not only on detection but the rules of engagement, which Eichelsheim also pointed to as a top challenge when it comes to the roles of military, police and civilian airport authorities. The hurdle, he explained, is connecting “those dots internationally in the right way” so that those who have the ability to shoot have the proper rules of engagement and the authorities.
Tim Martin contributed to this report from Belfast.