It is unlikely that 2026 will bring much respite after an eventful 2025 in the Indo-Pacific, given that there have been no resolution to the flashpoints in the region this year.
China will almost certainly dominate the defense and security headlines in the coming months, as tensions continue to simmer in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. And while new flashpoints can always pop up, there are a few likely scenarios.
We can expect to see continued standoffs and encounters between Chinese ships and their Philippine counterparts around the disputed South China Sea islands and shoals that have been ongoing for the past decade or so, including this year when a Chinese Coast Guard corvette collided with a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) destroyer in August while they harassing a Philippine Coast Guard patrol boat.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2025 and look forward to what 2026 may hold.]
Japan too, is likely to see an increased PLAN presence in and around its waters, including occasions when Russian forces will join their Chinese counterparts. We’ve already seen Beijing pushing to test the mettle of Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to lead Japan’s government, after she said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat for Japan. Expect China to use all avenues to see how far it can go with Tokyo this year.
But I’m keeping an eye even closer, because there is a growing tradition of China dropping a surprise (or two) over the last two weeks of December and into early January, often in the form of “new “leaked” new details about its military arsenal.
The tradition started in 2010, when photos of the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter undergoing ground testing first showed up online. Last year it was two new next generation combat aircraft being soft-launched to the world, including the J-50 which Breaking Defense spoke to experts about. In fact, Dec. 17 of 2025 brought us a first look at China’s analog of the A400 taking flight.
We will also likely this year to get confirmation (official or otherwise) whether a large ship that is undergoing construction at a naval shipyard in the Chinese port of Dalian will indeed be China’s fourth aircraft carrier.
Over at INDOPACOM, a major shift in the regional force posture will see combat aircraft once again permanently stationed at the airbase at Kadena on the Japanese island of Okinawa.
The US Air Force has said that it will start the deployment of 36 Boeing F-15EX Eagle II fighter jets to the airbase in spring 2026. Two of the aircraft, which will replace legacy F-15s operated by the resident 18th Wing, already paid a visit to the sprawling base in July.
Breaking Defense has also been told by Navy officials that there will be a significant announcement regarding its facilities in Southeast Asia will be made in the early part of next year, if all goes to plan.
Meanwhile, the arrival in Taiwan of the first of 66 Lockheed-Martin F-16Vs fighter jets is also expected to take place sometime during the coming year. Taiwan had been expected to receive all its jets by the end of 2026, but supply chain woes have delayed the timetable, and the last of the aircraft will likely be delivered only in 2027.
Also scheduled for delivery this year will be the first MC-55A Peregrine electronic warfare and intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare (ISREW) aircraft for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF).
Australia has four of the aircraft, which are based on the Gulfstream G550 business jet but fitted with a sophisticated ISREW suite from L3Harries, on order.