WASHINGTON — In December, China filed an application with the International Telecommunication Union for a total of 203,000 satellites for various constellations. Weeks later, SpaceX proposed a million-satellite space data center network. Meanwhile, militaries around the globe are investing into domestic space requirements, no longer willing to rely on other nations to provide the capability.
In other words, between governmental and commercial needs, there is a mass rush for satellites and launch vehicles unlike anything that’s come before.
But behind the headlines and hype is a shared supply chain that a dozen industry officials, experts and analysts told Breaking Defense is primed to see significant strain at any number of pressure points. That, in turn, could endanger several Pentagon initiatives to maintain dominance in the heavens — including for the high profile Golden Dome effort.
“I think demand is about to go through the roof — for launch vehicles and space-qualified parts and just satellite equipment in general — in the next two or three years. I’m concerned that the industrial base in the United States isn’t ready to support it,” Dave Cavossa, head of the Commercial Space Federation (CSF), told Breaking Defense.
Or, as the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA)’s Steve Jordan Tomaszewski put it, “2026 is going to be the year of the supply chain.”
Commercial Demand Skyrocketing, Potentially Impacting DoD Programs
There is widespread agreement that the biggest driver for concern is the expected boom in mega-constellations, particularly in low Earth orbit (LEO).
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Multiple companies — led by SpaceX, with Starlink, the military-oriented Starshield, the new Stargaze space tracking network, and a proposed million-satellite network of orbiting data centers — and governments now are planning and/or beginning to launch large satellite networks to LEO, and increasingly to other orbits as well.
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For example, China’s December ITU filing for 203,000 satellites included expansion of the state-backed Guowang (SatNet) and commercial Qianfan (Thousand Sails) constellations designed to rival Starlink, as well as two new constellations that together will comprise more than 95,000 birds. And earlier this month, Amazon LEO announced that its formerly-named Project Kuiper constellation for high-speed internet services now has 200 birds on orbit — with its goal a constellation numbering some 7,700 satellites.
The defense-specific market for satellites and launch services also is growing, both in the United States and abroad, as militaries gear up for future space warfare. The charge is being led by the US Defense Department as it pursues a more resilient space force structure and the Trump administration’s ambitious Golden Dome missile shield.
For example, both the Space Development Agency (SDA) and Space Systems Command (SSC) are pursuing programs to put up constellations for missile tracking that, taken together, will result in hundreds of new satellites in LEO and medium Earth orbit (MEO).
“Demand is increasing significantly. And I think that’s a good thing,” said Jeff Schrader, vice president of strategy and business development at Lockheed Martin. “We’re seeing a 632 percent increase in satellite/space vehicle deliveries over what we call our LRP, or long range plan.”
He stressed that as a large prime contractor, Lockheed has been able to “get ahead” of that curve by taking steps to ensure its massive supply chain that involves “almost 13,200 suppliers over 52 countries,” for example by “double sourcing” supplies of high-demand items.
Scott Herman, chief technology officer at UK startup SatVu, said that the looming issue is that the supply chains for commercial birds have major overlap with that of defense-focused ones.
“[E]ven the vertically integrated companies are still very dependent upon component suppliers for all the different piece parts that go into a bus: batteries and power and star trackers and reaction wheels,” he said. “And all the different standardized components that go into satellites tend to come from just a handful of suppliers.”
But there are challenges in identifying current and future bottlenecks, in large part because the space business is “a very competitive industry, so you don’t want to advertise that you’re having an issue,” said Tom Stroup, president of the Satellite Industries Association.
It’s enough of an issue that both AIA and CSF are working on studies — based on conversations with member companies of sizes and across the sectors — designed to better characterize the scope of the problem and pinpoint specific risks.
Jordan Tomaszewski said that AIA is planning to release its findings, gathered over several months of discussions with its space sector members, in the coming weeks. That study, he said, will take a deeper dive into areas of concern but also include recommendations about mitigation measures going forward.
Cavossa said that CSF recently stood up a Space Supply Chain Council to help advise members on the issues. That council also is undertaking a survey of concerns, he said, although it is not as broad a review as that being done by AIA.
“The goal of that is just to ask our supply chain base: ‘What are they struggling with the most right now? What are they concerned about? Where are they seeing gaps in their supply lines?’” he elaborated. “We’re going to ask the primes as well, kind of the Blue Origins and SpaceXs and Rocket Labs and Stokes and all the satellite operators, … to ask them to respond to the survey as well. We think, obviously, they’re going to have a different point of view on things.”
Where The Challenges Lay
While there is a dearth of public information about specific incidences at specific companies, SSC commander Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant this week indicated that his concerns about the supply are widespread.
“Examples where you have supply chain problems: optical crosslinks, [fuel] tanks, software — which is an interesting supply chain problem if you think about ground points of entry — those are, and continue to be, cross cutting in the domain; challenges that everybody’s facing, whether it’s Space RCO [Rapid Capabilities Office], Space Development Agency, SSC,” Garrant said Feb. 24 during the Air and Space Forces Association conference.
Garrant’s worry list echoes that of a number of sources who identified a handful of products and resources that either are, or potentially could, become supply chain chokepoints.
Lockheed’s Schrader noted that there have been issues with availability of on-board processors and mission computers, solar panels, propulsion systems and optical intersatellite links — with SDA contractors having faced supply chain problems in scaling up production of both optical links and propulsion units as the agency seeks to rapidly build out its planned mesh network of data transport and missile tracking constellations.
Critical minerals, gases and rare Earth elements are another source of crunch in the supply chain, he said. (That, of course, is true for almost every major defense article used by the United States.)
Building up domestic supplies of critical minerals have become a key concern of the Trump administration, as much of the supply has come from abroad — with “about 70 percent” coming from China, according to Travis Langster, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for international and industry engagement.
Several industry officials mentioned gallium arsenide, which is a semiconductor used in making optoelectronics, solar cells, and microwave circuits.
Another example given by more than one source is germanium, which is used in high-efficiency solar cells, infrared imaging lenses, and as a thermoelectric material in power generators.
Infrared imagers, of note, are critical to detecting, tracking and targeting adversary missiles from satellites, and thus certain to be a foundational product for Golden Dome.
Indeed, Boeing on Feb. 20 announced it has opened a new production line for electro-optical infrared sensors at its satellite facility in El Segundo to ensure that its Millennium Space Systems subsidiary has the payload capacity to deliver in 2027 the 12 satellites contracted by SSC for its Resilient Missile Warning and Tracking (MWT) MEO program, as well as rising demand.
The Space Force also has put in place a number of efforts to try to get a hold on the problem, Garrant said.
“We have groups of people in different organizations that pay attention to it,” he said, including Aerospace Corporation and a team inside SSC’s Space Systems Integration Office.
Supply Chain Strain Or An Unreliable Customer in DoD?
The giant leap in commercial demand and the resulting strain on the ecosystem could signal an evolution in the market that will negatively impact Pentagon and Space Force efforts to expand the military space architecture, a number of the sources cautioned.
As one industry insider explained, companies involved in manufacturing satellites may shift their sights away from DoD to supplying commercial players simply due to the economies of scale.
“So, they say: ‘I make satellites right now for the [Defense Department]. Well, maybe there’s a commercial partner that I actually have a better business deal to go after with these mega-constellations’?” I don’t think enough people have thought about that,” the insider said.
Another complicating factor for military contractors is that DoD demand can be fickle as it is dependent on the annual budget and political winds – things that are subject to rapid change at the stablest of economic times.
“The customer demand signal is lumpy and unpredictable,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space.
Chuck Beames, chairman of the SmallSat Alliance, was even more blunt, arguing that the problem is not actually with the supply chain at all, rather with the fact that the DoD demand signal is at best less than clear even as the defense budget is on the upswing and rhetoric about space threats is at an all-time high.
“People feel like they need to talk about [supply chain woes] because the government people want to talk about it. It’s not really an issue,” he said. “But I’ll tell you, what is the issue that is on everybody’s mind is: ‘When is the government going to put out RFPs [requests for proposals] to buy satellites?’ Because that’s the signal that the investors want to see.”
Todd Harrison, of the American Enterprise Institute, agreed that the real issue may not be supply chain roadblocks, but rather that suppliers are not yet convinced about the wisdom of making the investments needed to scale up based on DoD’s not yet fully funded plans.
Finally, several sources said that the Trump administration’s on-again/off-again tariffs, including those levied against allied countries, have contributed to worries that the costs of many key space-related components could fluctuate rapidly and significantly.
“One [factor] is just concerns around customs and tariffs and the uncertainty there,” Herman said. “A lot of these are long-lead items. A lot of these are internationally sourced or have to be brought into the US for assembly. And so there’s all this uncertainty about, like, ‘do we really understand what our costs are, or is there going to be suddenly a 20 percent tariff surcharge or customs duty that we didn’t know about?”