Mark Cancian

Posts by Mark Cancian

Global

Afghanistan Is Not Done With Us; Four Long-Term Dangers Await

  The message was clear, from the mouths of military officials, the State Department and President Joe Biden himself: Aug. 30 marked the official end of the US war in Afghanistan. But, as Mark Cancian writes below, just because the US has decided it is done with Afghanistan does not mean Afghanistan is done with […]

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Naval Warfare

Stormy Waters Ahead For Amphibious Shipbuilding Plan

Buried within the Navy’s fiscal 2022 shipbuilding plan is a major disruption of the amphibious fleet and its industrial base. The Navy will build the Light Amphibious Ships (LAWs) it wants, but there’s a trade-off. The number of large amphibious ships will decline by five to nine — 15% to 27%. Marines and others had […]

Air Warfare

The Five Surprises In Pentagon’s 2022 Budget

Most observers had expected an increase in the Navy's shipbuilding accounts with this budget, especially after the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, said that, even as an Army general, he would support budget increases for the Navy and Air Force in light of the Chinese threat. But this budget decommissions 12 ships and buys relatively few replacements.

Global

US War Surge Production Too Slow, CSIS Finds

The United States could not make enough military equipment fast enough to sustain its military in the event of a major war. While much thought has been given to how a great power conflict might erupt or play out, far less has been written on how the U.S. industrial base could sustain U.S. wartime equipment […]

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Allies

Trump’s German Withdrawal Plans ‘Extremely Expensive’

President Trump proposed re-stationing 11,900 US troops from Germany back in July. The redeployment of some to other European countries, with others coming home produced an avalanche of criticism. Although Defense Secretary Mark Esper tried to put a strategic spin on the moves, the president promptly undermined him. Then, representatives of the administration went before Congress […]

Allies

The Fuzzy Outlines Of Biden’s National Security Policies

The first outlines of what a Biden administration’s national security policy and defense budget are coming clear. The good news is that nothing signals a major change in strategy, so deep cuts and radical restructuring are unlikely. The bad news is that the administration’s overwhelming emphasis would be on domestic affairs and there appears to […]

Congress

Huge Deficit = Defense Budget Cuts? Maybe Not

The congressional calendar and strategic inertia may come together to keep the defense budget relatively high. The calendar helps because the fiscal 2021 defense budget will likely be passed while Congress is in a free-spending mood.

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Global

Mission First: US Military Must Train & Recruit During Pandemic

Without recruit training, the services will lose .5 percent of their end strength every month (unless stop loss is imposed, and that has its own costs). Because the training pipeline is several months long, units will not feel that gap for several months, but when the pipeline begins to runs dry, units will shrink.

Congress

COVID-19 Response: Pentagon Gets A Real $8.3B Slush Fund

            Mark Cancian, who used to help build and oversee execution of the defense budget at the Office of Management and Budget, peels apart the second big spending bill President Trump has proposed to help the government battle the COVD-19 virus.. From his perch at the Center for Strategic and International […]

Air Warfare

2021 Budget Spells The End of US Force Expansion

A smaller 2021 budget and greater funding demands for nuclear weapons development mean the end of plans by the four services to expand their numbers. Rising budgets have allowed the Pentagon to maintain old planes, ships, armored vehicles and other weapons, grow the force and invest in new weapons. The reduced topline in fiscal 2021 […]

Naval Warfare

The Spectacular & Public Collapse of Navy Force Planning

Planning for a 21st century Navy of unmanned vessels, distributed operations, and great power competition has collapsed. Trapped by a 355-ship force goal, a reduced budget, and a fixed counting methodology, the Navy can’t find a feasible solution to the difficult question of how its forces should be structured. As a result, the Navy postponed […]