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China’s new airstrip built over Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea (CSIS image)

UPDATED: Adds House Letter To White House CAPITOL HILL: Defense officials acknowledged today that the US has not directly challenged the sovereignty of China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea for at least three years. US aircraft have not flown over the artificial islets. Nor have US ships sailed within 12 nautical miles of one since 2012 — when most of the current crop weren’t even built.

Those facts raise the question of whether Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s pledge earlier this month was a hollow one. “The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows,” even in Chinese-claimed waters, Carter said Sept. 1st. These declarations are particularly pointed, and the discussion relevant, because Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Washington at the end of this month.

The 12-mile limit in particular is a big deal, because it’s the extent of the territorial waters the Chinese claim to control around their new constructed “islands.” The US argues an artificial “feature” built over a submerged coral reef grants no legal rights to the surrounding waters or airspace. (China in fact claims almost the entire South China Sea, based on an infamous “9-dash line” on a World War II-era map, which US and Asian nations naturally reject.)

This morning’s exchange between Sen. John McCain, who has bipartisan support for his view that China must not be allowed to build and operate these structures without being challenged, was dramatic.

“We sail and we fly and we operate within that area on a daily basis,” said David Shear, assistant secretary of defense for Asia-Pacific security, including “freedom of navigation” operations to assert our rights to free passage as recently as April.

“But you haven’t operated within 12 miles of these reclaimed features, have you?” asked McCain.

“We have conducted freedom of navigation operations….” Shear began.

“Have you gone within 12 miles of a reclaimed area?” McCain interrupted.

“We have not recently gone within 12 miles of a reclaimed area,” Shear acknowledged.

So when was the last time? McCain demanded.

After some pushing and prodding, Shear said that “I believe the last time we conducted a freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of one of those feature was 2012.”

“2012,” McCain said grimly. “Three years ago.”

Under questioning from McCain’s Democratic counterpart, SASC ranking member Jack Reed, Adm. Harris added that “we have not conducted a flyover” over Chinese-reclaimed land masses, either.

Even as purely physical structures, the artificial islets are affecting the balance of power. China is building deep-draft harbors suitable for warships and three 10,000-foot runways that can handle any aircraft short of the Space Shuttle, the chief of US Pacific Command, Adm. Harry Harris, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

If the US refuses to challenge the islets’ legal status by sailing or flying within 12 miles, they effectively become bubbles of Chinese sovereign territory in disputed and strategic waters. “If you respect the 12-mile limit, then that’s de facto sovereignty, agreed to tacitly,” the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, John McCain, argued at today’s hearing.

[Update begins] Just a few hours later, 29 members of the House — a bipartisan group led by hardcharging Obama critic Randy Forbes, chairman of the seapower subcommittee — issued a letter to the administration that echoes McCain’s arguments and urges operations within the 12-mile limit.

“Continued failure to actually exercise that right [to go within 12 miles] could be interpreted as de facto acceptance of Beijing’s destabilizing behavior,” the legislators wrote. “We believe that a firm response from the U.S. government, including the highly symbolic passage of American ships and aircraft through the waters and airspace illegitimately claimed by China, is needed to reinforce and sustain the international community’s opposition to extralegal claims.” [Update ends]

If the US does come within 12 nautical miles, however, the prickly Chinese are likely to see it as a challenge. What’s more, 176 years of national trauma dating back to the Opium Wars mean Chinese commanders can react dangerously, even violently, to perceived threats to national sovereignty. (This is the Chinese perspective on why they entered the Korean War). The US has tried to keep good professional ties with the Chinese military to help manage tensions, but even so, it seems clear US policymakers are not sure how to press the issue of the islets without risking serious escalation.

Challenging these sites may require carefully managed but dangerous collisions — and even deaths. Different sources tell us contradictory things about whether or not Pacific Command has ordered its pilots and ship captains to stay 12 nautical miles away from the islets as a precaution.

Shear hastened to say that sailing and flying through a Chinese-claimed area is just one option out of many, and that it is an option on the table. “Freedom of navigation operations are one tool in a larger toolbox that we’re going to need to use,” he said. “As we move forward, we’re going to consider freedom of navigation operations, along with a variety of other options.” He didn’t say what those options are, however.

“PACOM presents options, military options, to the secretary and those options cover the full range,” added Adm. Harris. “We’re ready to execute those options when directed.”

Okay, but which option do you think we should take, asked Sen. Dan Sullivan. “In your professional opinion, Adm. Harris, should we sail or fly inside the 12-mile area?”

Any policy decision has to come from the defense secretary (and ultimately the president), Harris said, but personally, “I believe that we should be allowed to exercise freedom of navigation, [both] maritime and flight, in the South China Sea, against those ‘islands’ that are not islands.”

“In the 12-mile limit?” Sullivan asked.

“Depending on the feature,” Harris replied. “If….”

“What about that one?” Sullivan interrupted, pointing to a photo of the Chinese airstrip under construction on Fiery Cross Reef.

“That one, yes,” Harris said.

The “features” do pose a military threat, the admiral said — up to a point. If the Chinese continue their construction projects, “you can imagine a network of missile sites, runways for their 5th generation fighters, and surveillance sites,” Harris told the senators. “China would have de facto control over the South China Sea in any scenario short of war.”

But in a shooting war with the US, he said, “these are obviously easy targets.”

“China fields a very modern military and a growing capability and capacity, [but] we have a technological edge over them in almost every way, if not in every way,” Harris said. “I’m confident of our ability to take the fight to China if it should come to that. I certainly hope it doesn’t.”

“That said, we have to maintain that technology edge because they are growing,” Harris continued. That particularly means both fielding so-called 5th generation fighters — agile stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35 — and upgrading existing 4th generation aircraft — the F-15, F-16, and F-18 — because we’ll have a lot of them for a long time.

“We will always have a qualitative advantage,” said Harris. “We have better trained people, better equipment — [but] quantity has a quality all its own.”

As the Chinese forces get both more modern and more numerous, “I worry about the pace of the Chinese buildup against the likelihood or the possibility that we will continue to be sequestered,” Harris said, referring to the Budget Control Act caps on spending. “That will pose a very real problem for us in the 2020s.”

Comments

  • Foton

    I hope when Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr. said “We will always have a qualitative advantage,” that he doesn’t really believe that. It’s nice to say these kinds of things in public to make the American military look powerful. But it is more wise to understand that things change.

  • Don Bacon

    Military personnel should not be put in a position to make political decisions, such as on 12-mile limit intrusions, and politicians who do so are wrong to do it especially on an issue which is probably of no interest to most Americans. Don’t they have more important matters to attend to, then some islands in the South China Sea? Sure they do.

  • TDog

    As ever, it is a question of cost and benefit. Flying within 12 nm of these features gains us nothing other than bragging rights because just because China is unwilling to shoot down American aircraft does not mean they will pay the same courtesy to Vietnamese or Filipino aircraft. And if the US does lose men and aircraft to this, what did America gain? An excuse to go to war? Yeah, like we needed another one…

    Right now China has not challenged any international shipping from any nation. Freedom of movement has not been impeded and thus far I have yet to hear of any bulk carrier or oil tanker being stopped and boarded. Conclusion: it’s business as usual.

    What McCain wants so badly to do is to upend business as usual in pursuit of some very intangible goals. We want to protect freedom of movement? It hasn’t been impeded. “But they might impede it!” And we might nuke them – “might” is a terrible excuse to use for military action or escalation.

    Let them build their islands and play their games. We can handle it if we have to because an island built on sand is just one large, immobile, and fragile target.

    • herbloke

      Why are the Greens quiet. That is a lot of coral being destroyed in those areas. Bad for fisheries.

      • On Dre

        Because history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men.
        These projects never last long. Let nature take its course and save out country the drama.

        • John Allard

          Would be nice if a big storm just washed the islands away. Problem solved.

          • bwbmillinery

            John, A Tsunami would be more effective!

      • John Allard

        Because they can’t be seen on the same side as the Pentagon I’m assuming.

    • Ikhwane –

      Appeasement is a very dangerous game to play. Some cultures may or do see it as weakness.

      • TDog

        Which is exactly why China built these. Vietnam’s expansion into the area went unchallenged for literally a decade and China did nothing, hoping that the agreed-upon ASEAN rules of conduct would be adhered to. They weren’t, so China reacted by abandoning its appeasement of Vietnam.

        See how that works?

        • John Allard

          Yeah, those Vietnanese having always been pushing China around. How do you think China squired the Spartly’s and the Parcel Islands? They landed armed soldiers and seized them by force in the 1970’s.

          • .Hugo.

            and that’s after vietnam has invaded the islands.

  • originalone

    The 21st Century, the U.S. is bogged down in Military tactics that are all over the spectrum, with no clear cut end point in sight. The fact that China is doing the things we see today, because they can, while the U.S. Military is plodding along, via the MIC that runs the show, especially in the revolving door syndrome that produces a corrupt quid pro quo as in today’s so called democratic system. There are those in the power structure who for various reasons, would commit the U.S. to enter into a no win suicidal action that will produce perhaps the end of civilization as we know it. Lessons learned so far, seem to be non-existent, though one wouldn’t know it by watching the posturing taking place today.

  • Changes

    Sure Obama has no stomach for pulling China’s tail on its front porch. I think Obama understands the true weakness of American pacific strategy better then others credit him. Obama’s policy is geared to create balance between America’s military strength and China or Russia. This way the US can never intervene outside of our side of the globe.

    Of course his stupidity is in thinking China or Russia want parity with the US. They just might want superiority where they can, for instance with Russia they can only hope to be superior in nuclear weaponry which they seem to be striving for. In the case of China they could achieve a wide ranging superiority over the US, including in our own home air and sea space.

  • Don Bacon

    Harris has the answer — fielding F-35s. A “qualitative” advantage. I guess he doesn’t read the papers.

    • Uniform223
    • Spruance42

      ughhh… because “the papers” would know, wouldn’t they? What does an admiral know… the bloggers should be running the Pentagon since they have all the answers