A Familiar Enemy
Arguably no one in the U.S. government knows Islamic State leadership and capabilities better than Lt. General Mike Flynn, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. As the former intelligence chief for Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) task force in Iraq, he helped interrogate and put many of those leaders in prison. Among the militant commanders who have either escaped in daring prison breaks or have been released from prison is IS’s charismatic leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
“They have gotten smarter from applying the lessons learned from fighting us, in many cases they are better armed and funded than in the past, and they are more sophisticated in knowing how to target and control weak governments and societies in the Muslim world through fear and intimidation,” said Flynn in an interview. “I actually think al-Qaida is becoming more dangerous as it decentralizes, and through its franchises it has a bigger footprint today than on September 11, 2001.”
As each Al Qaeda affiliate has gained strength and sustenance from controlling ungoverned spaces in the Middle East and Africa, they have continued talking to each to share trade craft and support. Many are also in communication with Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is presumably in Pakistan. Over the past year, for instance, Zawahiri attempted to mediate a dispute between al-Nusra and ISIL/ISIS in Syria. Islamic extremists in Libya passed weapons to Algeria-based Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), sparking an offensive that captured large swaths of Mali last year. U.S. Delta Force commandoes nabbed Al Qaeda operative Nazih Abdul-Hamad al-Ruqai, aka Anas al-Libi, in Libya last year because intelligence indicated he was establishing a terrorist cell there at the behest of Zawahiri and his lieutenants. Letters found in Osama bin Laden’s compound reportedly indicate that he was in communication with the leaders of the terrorist group Boko Haram, which is terrifying the populace of Nigeria with recent massacres of civilians and mass kidnappings of children. The current heightened threat-level at airports was at least partly prompted by intelligence indicating a bomb-maker from Yemeni-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had traveled to Syria to consult with members of the al-Nusra Front.
If Al Qaeda’s Zawahiri or ISIL’s Bagdahdi were ever able to unite these disparate affiliates under a single banner and strategy, today’s al-Qaida would be tantalizingly close to bin Laden’s vision of a global Islamic insurgency intent on waging endless war not only regionally, but against its chief protagonist, the U.S.-led Western alliance.
“If the growing number of al-Qaida affiliates become more coherent and cohesive as a group, then we will have a very big problem on our hands,” said Flynn. “They are not there yet. But knowing what I do about this enemy and its evolution over the last 10 years, as I look forward to the next 10 or 20 years, I see this threat being with us for a very, very long time.”