Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the Atlantic Ocean, April 2019.

PENTAGON: The Navy unveiled plans today to slash $4 billion from its shipbuilding budget and $3 billion from its topline in 2021, part of an overall reduction of 11 ships it had planned to buy by 2025. What are it chances on Capitol Hill? One influential member of Congress has already called it “dead on arrival.”

Rep. Joe Courtney, chair of the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee, said in a statement that: “the President’s shipbuilding budget is not a 355-ship Navy budget. As Chair of the Seapower Subcommittee, I can say with complete certainty that, like so much of the rest of the President’s budget, it is dead on arrival.” 

The subcommittee’s top Republican, Rep. Rob Wittman, told me in an email that, “while China is on track to reach 420 ships by 2035, we are struggling to stay on track with our 355-ship Navy shipbuilding plan. A decrease in the shipbuilding account is the opposite direction we need to be going if we are to compete.”

Wittman also found fault with the planned reduction of one Virginia sub. “It is clear to me—and it should be clear to everyone at this point—that we are in a full-scale strategic competition. And, submarines, both attack and ballistic missile submarines, should be at the center of the discussion and will be a focal point in this year’s NDAA],” he wrote.

The broader Navy cuts are part of what the service says is a deep restructuring needed to make room for new classes of manned and unmanned ships, even though no decisions have been made over what those ships will look like, how much they will cost, how many sailors will sail aboard them, or what missions they’ll fulfill.

The proposal comes with the reduction of 2,000 Marines and funding for several intriguing new programs, comes ahead of the release of the Navy and Marine Corps’ eagerly-awaited force structure assessment which is expected to provide a roadmap for growing, and changing, the overall mix of the fleet to get lighter, smaller, faster, and harder to target ships. That report was due in January, but it’s now unclear when it will see the light of day.

Overall, the Navy intends to request $207 billion, down from this 2020’s $210 billion. The procurement budget drops from $62.4 billion to $57.2 billion, shipbuilding goes from $24 billion to $19.9 billion, and the aircraft line slips from $19.7 billion to $17.2 billion.

To get there, the service will request eight ships in its 2021 budget, four fewer than was requested in 2020, and retire four Littoral Combat Ships and one dock landing ship, all of which adds up to $422 million in savings. It will also drop one of two Virginia-class nuclear submarines in 2021. 

In its budget request, the Navy claims it has “prioritized capable capacity over less capable legacy platforms to pace rapidly changing threat,” from Chinese and Russian military modernization efforts.

But Navy analyst Bryan Clark calls the 2021 request the “reset and rebalance” budget, noting the service has to make some real changes in order to refocus money on new platforms.  

“The last two years have focused on improving readiness while growing the fleet as much as possible,” Clark said. “I see this year as continuing the emphasis on readiness, with procurement and R&D reflecting a shift toward the new platforms the Navy sees as essential significant components of the future fleet.” 

In a recent interview, acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly acknowledged that the service was going to take some hits in this budget, but pointed to next year as the turnaround. The 2022 budget “is where we really got to make the case for how we’re going to grow and what we’re going to grow to,” he said.

But the Navy is slated to buy even fewer ships in 2022 — just seven, down one from ‘21 — before inching up to nine ships in 2023. Navy leaders say those future plans are going to change however, once their fleet structure report is finished. 

Some of the new investments are outlined in today’s submission, including $30 million for research into a Long Range Unmanned Surface Vessel, up from just $1 million last year. The Marines have been looking into the technology as a way to get troops from place to place in the Pacific quickly, and with a light footprint.

Another new item meant to help Marines move and resupply quickly, without making a big target for Chinese drones and aircraft, is the Future Amphibious Ship, a new start requested $30 million in funding. Navy and Marine Corps leaders have said they’re satisfied with their current America- and San Antonio-class amphibious ships, but Marine Commandant Gan. David Berger said he’s looking to get lighter.

“What does a future amphib look like?” Berger asked at the National Symposium for the Surface Navy Association last month. “I think it’s beyond the classes of ships we have right now and I think its smaller. I don’t think we do away with the big. I think we add lot of small.”  

There’s a long road ahead for this budget proposal, but it is clear that this shipbuilding plan will be sharply challenged on the Hill and by the defense industry, even as the Navy warns this plan isn’t really its plan at all. At the moment however, that plan is under wraps.