Russian Iskander tactical nukes in Kaliningrad
WASHINGTON: In the latest swipe in an increasingly contentious back and forth between Washington and Beijing over nuclear weapons, a senior DoD official said today: “I don’t believe China when they say they have no first use policy” for their nuclear weapons.
The remarks by Robert Soofer, deputy assistant secretary for nuclear and missile defense policy are part of a larger push by the Trump administration to talk tough on China, while trying at the same time to get Beijing to participate in three-way talks with Russia on arms control.
On Tuesday, just a day before Soofer’s remarks during a virtual Mitchell Institute event in Washington, a new Pentagon report lamented the “ambiguity,” in Chinese statements about its commitment to no first use. “China’s lack of transparency regarding the scope and scale of its nuclear modernization program, however, raises questions regarding its future intent as it fields larger, more capable nuclear forces,” the report said.
The Pentagon estimates that China is working to double the number of nuclear warheads in its arsenal over the next decade to around 400, though even with that expected growth China’s nuclear force would still be dwarfed by the estimated 3,800 US warheads in active and reserve status.
Despite already falling under the limits of the New START treaty between the US and Russia, China has refused to engage in any talks alongside the two countries in joining the pact, despite US pressure.
New START limits each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. The agreement expires Feb. 5 unless the two sides agree to extend it for another five years.
“Now we’re waiting to see if Russia has the political will now to come and talk to us about it,” Soofer said, noting he’s been involved in the early discussions in Vienna.
The Trump administration has been seen by some as uninterested in extending the agreement, and walking away just as it has the INF and Open Skies agreements with Russia and other international pacts signed by previous Democratic and Republican administrations. But Soofer said the US is willing to extend the agreement if Russia meets three conditions laid out by lead US negotiation Marshall Billingslea.
The first is to address concerns with the Russian build-up of its unconstrained nuclear weapons, or so-called non-strategic nuclear weapons which include short and medium range systems. Second is to strengthen the verification mechanisms under the existing New START, and third to include China in nuclear arms control discussions and other future arms control agreements. So there are some conditions that have been laid out for a possible new start extension.
“Whether and how Ambassador Billingsley will recommend to the president to pursue a New START extension will depend on how much progress we’re making with Russia,” Soofer said. “We have given them proposals during these meetings, and now we are waiting to see if Russia has the political will to come talk to us about it.”
So far, Russia has not joined the US in calling China to the table, but has said if China does take a seat, France and the U.K. should also participate. “I won’t speak for allies, but you may eventually see a much larger multilateral approach as opposed to just the three-way approach” that exists right now,” Soofer said.
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