Logistic challenges abound for potential US-Poland-Ukraine fighter swap

WARSAW: While the US has confirmed that it is in talks to supply fighter aircraft to Poland if Warsaw sends its aging MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, major logistical hurdles remain before any such three-way trade could be completed.

During a Sunday appearance on CBS, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked if the US would approve of Poland, or any NATO nation, sending fighter jets to Ukraine. In response, Blinken said “That gets the green light. In fact, we’re talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians. What can we do? How can we help to make sure that they get something to backfill the planes that they’re handing over to the Ukrainians?”

Those comments came a day after Politico reported that the US was in such discussions, likely centered around Poland receiving American F-16s to replace aviation capacity. But that was not the start of the discussion about NATO nations handing over air assets to Ukraine, whose leadership has made it clear they consider controlling the airspace a matter of life or death against Russia.

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Rumors about Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria sending older fighter jets to Ukraine for use began circulating as early as Feb. 27 on social media accounts of official representatives of the Ukrainian government and armed forces.

According to those tweets, 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s Frogfoot aircraft from Bulgaria, 28 MiG-29s from Poland and 12 MiG-29s from Slovakia will be transferred to Ukraine — instantly creating a replenished air force. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine even stated that the transferred aircraft will operate from the territory of Poland, where Ukrainian pilots are already training.

These rumors were denied during a March 1st press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Polish President Andrzej Duda at Łask Polish Air Force Base in Poland.

“Gentlemen, as Secretary General has now said, we are not sending any jets to Ukraine because that would open a military interference in the Ukrainian conflict. We are not joining that conflict. NATO is not a party to that conflict. However, as I said, we are supporting Ukrainians with humanity aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to the Ukrainian airspace,” Duda said then.

Those comments were echoed on March 3rd by Polish Armed Forces General Command, which announced “All the Polish Air Force MiG-29 aircraft remain at their home bases. All the Polish aircraft are marked with the Air Force checkerboard.” And in a March 6th statement to Belarusian media outlet Nexta, the Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland said “Unfortunately you are spreading misinformation [about the jets]. Poland won’t send its fighter jets to Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports. We significantly help in many other areas.”

It can both be true that Poland has not decided at this time to send Ukraine fighters and that the US is in talks with Poland about a contingency option in case Warsaw does make that move.

It is also possible that sending fighter aircraft — let alone the idea of using NATO bases to launch missions — will likely be seen as a more provocative action in Russia than shipping the kind of lower-level equipment to Ukraine that the NATO nations have already provided. According to onet.pl, citing in anonymity high-rank Polish officer, Warsaw already has sent to Ukraine 100 Vympel R-73 (AA-11 Archer) short-range air-to-air missiles, while NATO members have shipped Stingers and Javelin weapons to Ukraine’s desperate defense.

However, the original Feb. 27 rumors may have simply never been realistic at face value. According to official sources, the Bulgarian Air Force has 15 MiG-29A and 3 MiG-29UB jets on hand, but only a few Fulcrums are airworthy and the remaining jets can be used as a spare parts source — at best. Of their 16 Su-25 Frogfoots, only half (6 Su-25K and a pair of Su-25UBK) are operational. The Slovak Air Force, meanwhile, has only 6 MiG-29AS and a sole MiG-29UBS on duty, less than the rumor suggested they could ship to Ukraine.

Of the three, Poland does seem the most capable of gifting planes to Ukraine. In the Polish Air Force inventory there are 22 MiG-29A and 6 MiG-29UB. Half of them were equipped with modern avionics and were refurbished and overhauled in 2013-2014 with service life of their airframe extended to 40 years or 4,000 flight hours and the addition of IFF Mark XIIA mod 5 systems. Last year, Poland announced its spare parts supply is sufficient to operate those MiG-29s for a further three to four years.

But while that all seems plausible on paper, there are very real logistics questions which would need to be addressed. First, it seems likely Poland would want to strip classified modern equipment off the jets before handing them over, especially given the risk of the fighters being captured by Russia. How quickly that could be done — and how plausible it is that the planes would be able to operate with those capabilities stripped out — is unknown.

Then there is the question of transport. Direct flights from Bulgaria, Poland or Slovakia to Ukraine would be the easiest and fastest way, but come with a high risk of being shot by Russians, especially if they know such a deal is in the works. Transport by land would require disassembling aircraft and then re-assembling and performing flight checks after delivery to the destination, both time-consuming and risky. And any convoy of trucks carrying aircraft is a sitting duck for enemy aviation.

And who will operate them? Just how many Ukrainian fighter pilots are available at this point is unclear, let alone where they are located and how many of them are trained up on the MiG-29s. Plus the requisite support staff would be needed. In theory, there may be foreign pilots who are willing to travel to Ukraine and fly these jets on behalf of the Ukrainian forces, but is it enough to make a difference?

Time is the final factor. Realistic assessments of how quickly an agreement could be made, how quickly those planes could be transferred to a new location and how quickly they could get into the air will have to be taken into account. If the answer is months, it simply may not make sense for Poland to invite the potential escalation of sending these jets to Ukraine when, despite the success the Ukrainians have had at resisting Russia so far, Moscow still seems militarily dominant in the long run.

A agreement may well be reached, especially if the US is willing to quickly move to backfill Poland’s air force with newer capabilities. But before any deal is done, expect the above factors to be weighed heavily in Warsaw, Washington and Brussels.