German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) and interim Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid speak to the media following talks at the Chancellery on September 12, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. The two are in discussions about the purchase of the Israel-made Arrow 3 missile defense system. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
PARIS — The former commander of the German Air Force has confirmed that Germany intends to buy the Arrow 3 air defense system from Israel, as a central part of what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has described as a pan-European air defense network
In a telephone interview on Sept. 12 with Breaking Defense, retired Lt. Gen. Karl Müllner said the choice had been set and confirmed at a defense conference in Koblenz, Germany, two weeks ago.
Discussions about buying the Arrow 3 system have been reported by both German and Israeli media since early April. But Müllner said the decision is already more or less “set,” confirming a report from Reuters on Sept. 12.
The most important issue in the area of air defense is not “short-range air defense, the army’s air defense or even modernizing the Patriot missile system. It is [ballistic] missile defense,” writ large, Müllner said.
In an Aug. 29 speech at Charles University in Prague, Scholz laid out a vision of Germany at the heart of a pan-European air defense network, stating “we have a lot of catching up to do in Europe when it comes to defense against airborne and space-based threats” — something Müllner said was most likely driven by the threat from Russia’s Iskander missiles based in Kaliningrad, just 328 miles from Berlin.
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Germany “will be investing very significantly in our air defense over the years ahead. All of those capabilities will be deployable within the framework of NATO,” Scholz continued in Prague. “At the same time, Germany will, from the very start, design that future air defense in such a way that our European neighbors can be involved if desired — such as the Poles, Balts, Netherlanders, Czechs, Slovaks or our Scandinavian partners.”
However, a number of these countries have been making their own air defense arrangements for years, and several have stepped up procurement plans over the summer in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
- Poland will be getting a short-range air-defense system using MBDA’s Common Anti-air Modular Missile (CAMM) with a range of more than 25kms. Originally slated for procurement in 2027, the first of two fire modules of the system, known as Narew, will be delivered later this month, with the second at the end of the year.
- Baltic states Latvia and Estonia signed a letter of intent (LoI) on June 30 to jointly procure an air-defense system, and on Sept. 7 Estonia and Poland signed an agreement to jointly procure the PIORUN Polish-developed short-range man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
- Finland has downselected two Israeli systems: Rafael’s David’s Sling and IAI’s Barak MX. A final decision will be taken in 2023.
- The Netherlands wants to buy 96 GEM-T missiles for the Patriot air defense system, in service with the Dutch military since 1987. In late July it was announced that the US State Department had approved the proposed sale worth an estimated $1.2 billion.
- As for the Czech Republic, it is helping provide air defense for neighboring Slovakia. Its JAS-39 Gripen aircraft started performing air policing missions earlier this month and will continue to do so until at least the end of 2023 when Slovakia’s new F-16 fighters should be operation to replace the Russian MiG-29s which are being decommissioned early.
But Müllner said, the Chancellor “doesn’t have in mind a political project because you always have to compromise and it will take longer, so this program will be decided nationally. But at the same time others are invited to participate.” He explained that participation from the neighbors in question “could range from decision-making procedures in NATO to financial participation or even buying their own missiles. It all depends on what they think both politically and militarily.”
Doug Barrie, a senior fellow for military aerospace at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Breaking Defense that there was “a lack of clarity” in the announcements, remarking that if the Arrow were a short-term, albeit very expensive fix at around $2bn, “it would still be less expensive than losing something strategic.”
“How does all this fit together? It’s like a jigsaw puzzle with pieces either missing or in the wrong place,” Barrie said, adding that “Berlin doesn’t have a fantastic history of clarity on land-based acquisitions.”
Müllner explained that the capability gap in Germany’s air defense had its roots in that “10-12 years ago nobody really thought about a war with a peer enemy. The planners at MoD were focused on Afghanistan-type conflicts and never thought about war against an enemy with reasonable air capability. But now is a totally new situation and it’s become an obvious value to defend our own air space, so Germany has to do something.”
In mid-July, prior to Scholz’s speech, EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton announced a new €500 million fund to encourage European cooperation in defense matters — notably to acquire portable air defense (MANPADs), anti-tank guided missiles and artillery such as shells and the Caesar or Krab howitzers — to complement the European Defense Fund, which is aimed at R&D projects. That means that the more countries Germany gets involved with to develop air defense capabilities, the more money it could get from this fund, formally the “European Defense Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act” (EDIRPA). But Müllner said he didn’t think there was a link between Scholz’s announcement and EDIRPA.
This new €500 million instrument has three objectives:
- First, to help reconstitute EU member states’ weapon stocks, currently reaching dangerously low numbers because so much has been sent to Ukraine
- Despite almost €200bn extra money being pledged for defense by member states, the concern is that investments will be made along purely national lines leading to a fragmentation of efforts, a lack of interoperability and countering the European Defense Fund’s objective of helping to create an integrated European defense industry base. So this fund is a carrot to encourage member states to work together.
- To support European industry to adapt to reality and to the return of high intensity conflict on the continent
The €500m fund will be available for two years (2023-2024) and can only be used to incite member states to cooperate. The European Commission will not be buying weapons itself. The fund will support joint acquisition projects by a minimum of three countries. And the more member states are involved the more financial aid they will get. Eligibility will be the same as for those of the European Defense Fund.
Discussions to approve this initiative are expected to be held by the European Parliament and the European Council (the governments) this fall.
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