UK, Japan and Italy launch Global Combat Air Programme to deliver next generation fighter

BELFAST — The UK, Japan and Italy have signed an “international coalition” agreement to deliver a Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) that will see the partner nations collaboratively develop a next-generation fighter aircraft.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched the first major phase of GCAP during a visit to RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire, England, today.

The move merges the UK and Italian Tempest/Future Combat Air System partnership with Japan’s F-X next-generation fighter program, breaking close governmental and industrial ties between the US and Japan on combat jet manufacturing in the process.

The project aims to design a highly capable next-generation fighter jet, with first flight scheduled for 2035, which will connect with uncrewed aerial systems and equipped with “advanced sensors, cutting-edge weapons and innovative data systems,” according to a UK government statement.

Both UK Eurofighter Typhoon and Japanese F-2 fighter fleets are set to be replaced by the new GCAP platform from 2035 onward.

“By combining forces with Italy and Japan on the next phase of the programme, the UK will utilise their expertise, share costs and ensure the RAF remains interoperable with our closest partners,” the statement noted.

As a priority the three GCAP partners are to work on establishing a “core platform concept” and “structures” required to launch a development phase in 2025. Before then, details will be solidified on cost-sharing arrangements, directly based on national budget assessments.

In addition to developing the GCAP fighter jet, London plans on also assessing UAV and weapons requirements, likely to include loyal wingman or adjunct aircraft concepts.

The GCAP effort is one of two sixth-generation fighter designs underway in Europe. In competition is the Franco-German-Spanish effort known as the Future Combat Aircraft System (SCAF). That program has been mired in political infighting between Berlin and Paris over workshare split and appears to be behind the newly-announced GCAP timelines for getting a fighter design under production.

Both the US Air Force and Navy are developing their own concepts for a next-generation fighter, although details on those efforts are to date closely held by service leadership.

A Big Picture Change

At a wider level, the new partnership, particularly the ties between the UK and Japan, looks to be a clear sign that funding of a next-generation fighter will be much more certain long term.

“The basic fact of the matter is that the [UK] MoD does not have the money to fund anything close to a full up fighter program on its own or even to match the levels of funding it put toward Typhoon as part of a four nation consortium,” said Justin Bronk senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank.

“Considering Japan’s enormous economy and unambiguous [fighter] requirement because of its proximity to China and all that that implies, the [GCAP] agreement is one of the only practical ways — given the status of UK, German and French relations — to get toward more viable levels of funding.”

As a way of strengthening GCAP’s financial stability, London also anticipates increasing exports with “more likeminded countries” expected to join GCAP in the future.

Those ambitions are difficult to assess in light of Sweden not being a GCAP signatory. The Nordic nation has been partnered with the UK on Tempest/FCAS, but a failure to commit early to the new GCAP team suggests its long term combat air plans are still being deliberated.

“Saab is focused on supporting the Swedish authorities on reviewing the Swedish FCAS context,” said a spokesperson for the manufacturer in a Dec. 9 statement.

“Although Sweden is not referenced in this international partnership, we have been working with Swedish [industrial] colleagues for several years now addressing alignments, requirements, timings and budgets…and remain engaged,” John Stocker, Tempest business development director at BAE Systems told Breaking Defense.

“We know from a government to government perspective the door remains absolutely open [to join GCAP] and the dialogue with Sweden is ongoing.”

BAE Systems will continue to lead a core group of UK Tempest industry partners for GCAP, all of whom still remain committed to delivering a piloted, supersonic demonstrator set to first fly in 2027.

Going forward Bronk said that it will “be interesting to see” how the UK government attempts to defend its defense industry having a lead design role in “what could easily become a Japanese-led program.”

Why that type of scenario might unfold links to a military spending disparity between the UK and Japan, which looks set to widen as Tokyo’s defense budget “rises significantly” to counter Chinese threats, he added.

“If Japan is ordering significantly more aircraft and putting in more money over time, or is at least in a position to put that on the table as a bargaining position, then they can ask for quite a significant amount of workshare and design lead authority in various bits of whatever ends up being produced,” said Bronk.

Japan’s decision to merge F-X with the UK and join GCAP follows Lockheed Martin being ousted from Toyko’s sixth-generation fighter program and effectively replaced by BAE Systems.

Original collaboration on F-X between the US prime and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reportedly suffered from technical issues involving classified information restrictions.

“This is the first time in a very long time that Japan won’t be aligned with the US on fighter jet co-operation,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Japan is traditionally used to being a junior partner with the US, even including their own national fighter projects like the F-16.”

Despite not being involved in GCAP, the DoD welcomed the move.

“The United States supports Japan’s security and defense cooperation with likeminded allies and partners, including with the United Kingdom and Italy – two close partners of both of our countries – on the development of its next fighter aircraft,” it said in a Dec. 8 statement.

Discussions have started between the US and Japan on “autonomous systems capabilities” which could eventually “complement” the GCAP fighter.

“Concrete co-operation” to work on the autonomous capabilities will start in 2023.