NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Oct. 2021. (Laura Kotila/Finnish government.)
WASHINGTON — Finland will officially become the 31st member of NATO.
Late this evening in Ankara, Turkey’s parliament approved Finland’s application to the international organization, bringing the Nordic nation to the verge of alliance membership, according to multiple reports. After Hungary’s vote earlier in the week, only formalities in the way of Helsinki formally entering the organization in the coming weeks.
Since the end of World War II, Finland and Sweden have been joined at the hip as militarily neutral, refusing to side with either NATO or the USSR. After the end of the Cold War, there were various pushes within each country for NATO membership, but they never got very far. That changed dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Public polling just days after the invasion showed massive jumps in support for NATO membership and the governments acted quickly, formally submitting bids on May 18.
Usually NATO membership takes some time to happen, but the majority of members moved quickly to ratify Finland and Sweden in record time. The exceptions were Turkey and Hungary, which dug in their heels — and as all 30 NATO members need to approve new additions, Istanbul and Budapest have been able to stymie the process for months.
Hungary’s objections stem largely from issues within the European Union, where they have been drifting towards pariah stance for what is seen as anti-democratic backsliding. Turkey, meanwhile, has sought to punish Sweden — which it sees as too soft on what Turkey calls terrorist organizations, including ethnic Kurds who are living inside Swedish borders — while noting for several months that it would be willing to approve Finland’s bid.
Throughout the process, Stockholm and Helsinki were steadfast that it was a package deal. But on March 15, the Swedish government effectively gave its permission for Finland to move ahead on its own. One day later, Finnish president Sauli Niinistö arrived in Turkey, where he received the blessing of Turkish President Recep Erdoğan.
Sweden, for now, remains on the outside looking in. However, there is some belief among European sources that Sweden may still get into NATO this year, depending on the outcome of Turkey’s elections in May.
Erdoğan is trying to rally nationalist fervor in support of his third term in office. Stirring up emotions against Sweden — especially after a notable incident where an activist burned a Quran outside of Turkey’s embassy in Sweden — seems to be part of that strategy. (What is less clear is why Hungary has not moved on Sweden, leading to speculation among Europe watchers that Budapest is locked in a game of chicken with Istanbul about who gets to be the last nation to approve the newest member.)
Expect leaders in Washington and Brussels to keep the heat on both Turkey and Hungary in order to push Sweden through. Notably, Foreign Policy reported last week that neither country is being invited to the big democracy summit being hosted by US President Joe Biden, the only two NATO nations to be excluded.
How could Sweden and Finland impact NATO as members? Read more:
- Finland, Sweden in NATO ‘opens up a lot of possibilities’
- Norwegian air chief wants ‘Nordic Air Operations Center’ if Sweden, Finland join NATO
- Danish defense minister: New status quo will ‘move NATO to the north,’ with Baltic emphasis
- Finland needs ability to ‘react rapidly’ to any Russian aggression: Minister
- What Finland will bring to NATO – and how it might change the alliance
- NATO expansion should be accompanied by a Nordic defense reset
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