Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, attend the Tsinghua University, before the meeting, at Friendship Palace on April 26, 2019 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Kenzaburo Fukuhara – Pool/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — Russian president Vladimir Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine has hurt his “friendship without limits” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and could chasten the Chinese leader’s own aggressive ambitions, former top US national security officials said at a conference this week.
In brief: Putin may keep doubling down on his efforts in Ukraine, but the high-powered panel believes Xi is smart enough to avoid a similar debacle.
“I really think that Xi is a smarter player,” said Leon Panetta, who served as CIA director and Defense secretary under President Barack Obama, speaking via video to the Special Competitive Studies Project’s Ash Carter Exchange.
“China is going to be very careful not to incur the same kind of problems that Russia is facing by suddenly deciding to move into Taiwan,” he said, pointing to the military defeats and economic sanctions Putin has suffered in Ukraine. “I think Xi has learned those lessons.”
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“I hope that what they conclude is hey, looking good on parade in Tiananmen Square is pretty easy compared to actual war,” said H.R. McMaster, a retired Army Lt. Gen. who served as National Security Adviser under President Donald Trump. “I hope that the valor of the Ukrainians, their courage, as well as the difficulty that the Russians have encountered will give them pause [about attacking] Taiwan.” (Military experts often note that, in contrast to America’s near-constant conflicts, China lacks combat experience because it has not fought a war since its brief and humiliating clash with Vietnam in 1979.)
“But,” McMaster added, “they might also conclude they’ve got a fleeting window of opportunity to [attack Taiwan] as we see the US and our allies and partners wake up.” Japan, Australia, and Taiwan itself are all making major investments in their militaries which will take years to realize, he said, which gives Beijing at least some incentive to strike fast.
An attack on Taiwan, however, would be fraught with dangers and uncertainties, as Russia’s reverses underline. “Ukraine should be a cautionary tale for President Xi,” said Michèle Flournoy, who was Pentagon policy chief under Obama.
First of all, she said, Xi should realize his own advisers, analysts, and admirals may give him the kind of rosy scenarios about Taiwan that Putin got about how easy it would be to seize Kyiv in a lightning strike. “In an authoritarian system, can I trust what … my subordinates are actually telling me?” she asked. “It’s not exactly a leadership climate where you take the risk of speaking truth to power.”
“As difficult as it’s been for Russia across a fairly limited land border, think how hard it’s going to be to [launch an invasion] across 200 kilometers of water,” she went on. “The Taiwanese people… they’re going to be fighting for their homeland, they’re going to be fighting for their way of life, for democracy. I don’t think the PLA has thought a lot about facing an insurgency or strong resistance in Taiwan.”
Finally, she said, “I would be very worried about the international response — how the West has come together, the US and allies, to actually support Ukraine,” she said. “[It would be] a different constellation of partners but a very strong response if there was unprovoked aggression against Taiwan.”
Major transportation routes on and off Taiwan (Source: CIA World Factbook)
Beyond Taiwan
China is also unlikely to stick its neck out to support Russia in Ukraine, despite Putin and Xi’s pre-invasion claim of an “unlimited friendship,” said Bob Gates, who served as defense secretary under both George W. Bush and Obama. “The Chinese have been pretty careful,” he said. “They have limits on the limitless partnership.”
“I suspect they will not send flat-out weaponry,” he went on. “They are doing a lot in terms of [sending] semiconductors and so on to help the Russians, but I think they will not take the risk of sending weapons because they don’t want to take the risk of secondary sanctions from the United States.”
“China will continue to talk a good game about supporting Russia but Chain’s fundamental interest is in itself,” agreed Panetta. “China’s going to focus on improving its economy.”
“China is the primary player in that relationship,” he emphasized. “Russia is a pariah.”
At this point, Russia’s main value to China is as an agent of chaos in an international system China seeks to undermine, Gates said. “There’s a certain division of labor between the two countries,” he argued. “The Russians… are basically the spoiler: They’re the ones that go in and try to create problems inside the democracies, between the democracies and so on. At the same time, the Chinese main message is, we have an alternative model of economic growth and development that, for all of you authoritarians out there, offers the opportunity to develop your country without pesky questions from the United States and its allies about human rights.”
Beijing has toned down its international aggressiveness in recent months, added Condoleezza Rice, whose served Bush as both National Security Adviser and Secretary of State. “Over the last year or so, we went from ‘Wolf Warrior diplomacy,’ where we were calling Australia ‘gum on the shoe’ of China [and] beating up Indian soldiers with baseball bats,” she said, “[to] ‘now I’m the great diplomat, Mr. Xi Jinping.’” Xi has made high-profile efforts to broker a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, she noted, and to pose as a peacemaker on Ukraine, hosting French president Emmanuel Macron and even phoning Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
That said, Rice emphasized that the Beijing-Moscow axis remains a danger to US leadership — which is also threatened from within.
“Their friendship without limits is really about undermining US power, that’s very clear, and if we’re not careful we will help them,” she said. “I worry about the state of the United States itself. We seem to be pulling ourselves apart … because I think too many Americans don’t believe the American dream is for them any longer.”
In the end, however, said Rice, now a professor at Stanford, “I’m optimistic because I live in a great university.”
“I teach these kids every day, and while they get a kind of bad rap… and it is true that they’re never off their phones — they are the most public-minded generation that I’ve taught,” she said. “They want to do things bigger than themselves.”
