New UK government declines to take position on GCAP fighter program, defers to defense review

A Global Combat Air Programme(GCAP) core vehicle concept on display at DSEI, London (Breaking Defense)

BELFAST — Britain’s new Labour government has declined to make a firm, long-term commitment to the multinational next-generation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), citing concern over influencing the recently launched Strategic Defence Review (SDR).

“It is a really important program for us,” said Luke Pollard, UK armed forces minister, during the Global Air Chief’s Conference today. “It’s important for our partners in Japan and Italy … and we’re meeting both those partners next week to underline that. But it’s not right for me to prejudge what might happen in the [Strategic] Defence Review.”

Pollard suggested that ministerial speeches should not be used to tell George Robinson, former NATO secretary general and the lead reviewer of the strategy document, that “this platform and this platform” must be saved.

The SDR was formally commissioned by Labour leader Keir Starmer on Monday, with London vowing to deliver a “new era” of defense in the process. It is expected to layout the UK’s strategic priorities, acquisition changes and procurement reforms. Work on the project has already started, “in recognition of the urgency of the threats” faced by the UK, and is expected to be delivered to lawmakers in “the first half of 2025.”

But Labour reticence to discuss GCAP appears out of line with its full public embrace of the AUKUS security partnership, which will develop a new class of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.

Meanwhile, the economic sustainability of GCAP has been in the spotlight since the US Air Force suggested it is reconsidering the future of its own Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) effort and amid questions gathering around whether London should de-prioritise its six generation fighter to better prepare for a potentially more immediate war with Russia beyond Ukraine’s borders — predicted by some European leaders and analyst to be between three and five years away.

“GCAP is completely impossible if there’s a war in Europe in the coming five years because the global economy will have completely tanked,” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK defense think tank, here on Wednesday.

“It’s notable that the US Air Force is saying it can’t potentially afford NGAD, and given that NGAD already has prototypes flying around is their third or fourth attempt to build a combat stealth aircraft, they’re very good at it and it’s US funding, if the US thinks it is maybe unaffordable … then I think we probably need to look very carefully at how we’re going to do this in Europe,” he said. “But for the immediate term, you’ve got to stop the Russians from trying to test NATO militarily in this decade, otherwise, everything else is kind of irrelevant.”

Other analysts have previously been less skeptical about the impact a potential NGAD cancellation could have on GCAP, because the two projects are working off very different budgets, with the US design somewhere in the range of $200 to $300 million per airframe.

“We need cutting-edge capabilities,” said Pollard. “We need to make sure that when we’re procuring systems, high-end systems, future systems that we need to keep our people safe, we do it in the most cost effective way and that is by working with our partners.”

Still, an senior RAF spokesperson told reporters on condition of anonymity at a media briefing today that he was “not at all surprised” by Pollard’s position on GCAP because of the funding involved.

“It is a very big investment. In orders of magnitude terms, over the next 10 years, investment in GCAP is about a quarter of what we will invest in the Army’s equipment procurement plan,” he said.

The previous UK Conservative government committed spending of £2 billion ($2.6 billion) on GCAP until 2025 and an additional £12 billion ($15.5 billion) overall. But it remains to be seen if Labour will stick to that level of funding.

The RAF spokesperson said that the service “needs something” to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon fourth-generation jet before 2037, and in the interim, the RAF will prioritize a focus on how to best exploit autonomous systems, digital manufacturing and synthetic environment technologies.

GCAP is also planned to replace Italian Eurofighter Typhoons and Japanese F-2 fighter jets.

First launched in December 2022, GCAP’s core vehicle is set to be capable of flying with loyal wingman or adjunct type platforms, and due to be equipped with “advanced sensors, cutting-edge weapons and innovative data systems,” according to the UK MoD.