L3Harris-SDA-tranche-0-tracking_OV-1 missile tracking

L3Harris image, SDA missile tracking Tranche 0 configuration

WASHINGTON: Nabbing the Space Development Agency’s (SDA) first contracts for new LEO missile tracking satellites opens doors to wider markets for newcomers L3Harris and SpaceX, but also comes with a number of risks including potential funding gaps.

“While the initial contract is small, this is a big strategic win for both SpaceX and L3Harris. For SpaceX, this opens up a new line of business as a satellite bus provider and systems integrator for DoD,” Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies says in an email. “It also puts them in the mix for what could ultimately be more than $7 billion in funding for proliferated LEO constellations of satellites.”

“This is really the first, very large Department of Defense missile defense area that we’ve won at the spacecraft level. So, it’s very new to us,” said Bill Gattle, president of L3Harris’s space systems sector in an interview. “It was important for us to get into the game, so to speak.”

SpaceX didn’t respond to a request for comment. As Breaking D readers know, the firm already has caught the Air Force’s eye with its Starlink broadband communications sats in LEO — playing a role in the effort to develop the Advanced Battle Management System for linking sensors to shooters across all-domains. However, it has no experience in developing or operating infrared (IR) sensors, which are a critical piece of the project. Indeed, sources say, SpaceX will be subcontracting out the development of sensors to be integrated with its Starlink bus.

SDA announced Tuesday that it had awarded SpaceX $149 million and L3Harris $194 million to each build four satellites for the agency’s Tracking Layer Tranche 0 designed to detect ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles using a wide field of view IR sensor. The low-cost satellites are supposed to “provide missile warning and tracking information to national defense authorities, and tracking and cueing data for missile defense elements,” according to SDA officials. The plan is to launch the eight sats in 2022 and demonstrate the capability.

Tuesday’s award is a one-time deal, with SDA planning to reopen the competition when it moves to expand the number of satellites in the constellation in order to provide useful service. The number of tracking satellites could balloon up to 500 in total if all goes according to SDA’s planned National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA).SDA architecture

That architecture, Breaking D readers will recall, has seven different “layers” including types of satellite constellations and ground infrastructure. SDA on Aug. 31 announced awards to Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems for $187.5 million and $94 million respectively for development of 10 satellites each for its “Transport Layer” constellation, being designed as the communications backbone for future all-domain operations.

“These two companies won the competition for SDA’s Tracking Layer Tranche 0 to build 4 satellites each. There will not be a down-select later. They will each build four. We will put out RFP(s) for future tranches of the Tracking Layer and these companies are not guaranteed to win those future competitions,” an SDA official explained in an email yesterday.

This means there is more than usual risk involved for the winners, who have had to invest non-trivial sums to be able to put in bids.

“Yes, there’s risk associated — probably more risk … than we’ve probably ever seen the space market,” Gattle admitted.

On the other hand, there are advantages to getting a foot in the door, Gattle and a number of outside experts said.

“If you’re working with the customer, you will be at an advantage” in pursuing future buys, said Carissa Christensen, CEO of Bryce Space and Technologies. “So, yes, it’s a real competition, but I absolutely think being an early winner is a positive.”

Gattle explained that the SDA Tracking Layer also isn’t the only IR missile warning game in town, which is one of the reasons L3Harris was so delighted to break in via the SDA contract. “We’ve basically retooled ourselves towards this market. As you know, there’s a lot of money being flowed into missile defense and missile warning.”

First, Space Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) is well on its way to deploy the  Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) constellation to replace today’s Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellites. The program now is getting ready its Block 0 satellites, expected to be up and running by 2029. Block 0 comprises three satellites in GEO built by prime contractor Lockheed Martin, and two satellites in polar orbits, being built by Northrop Grumman. However, the Space Force is now contemplating whether some of the follow-on Block 1 iteration of the birds, development of which would be funded starting in 2022, might be deployed in LEO. 

Further, SDA is working with the Missile Defense Agency, which is designing LEO sats to carry the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS). HBTSS is a medium field-of-view sensor that provides higher-quality targeting information. Two of those satellites are currently in the works for launch in 2023, according to an SDA official — although as Breaking D readers know, there is still some controversy about what some in Congress see as a shotgun marriage between SDA and MDA on the plan.

(L3Harris, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and Leidos are all building prototypes for MDA.)

Indeed, the wider question of SDA’s future may be the larger risk to all the vendors involved in these early stages, experts said. As we’ve reported extensively, an internal debate within DoD, the Air Force and the Space Force is boiling about when — if at all — to integrate SDA into the Space Force’s acquisition chain of command, as Congress desires. That question, in turn, is caught up in the wider discussion within DoD and between DoD and Congress about how exactly to organize space acquisition writ large. 

“The future prospects for the SDA’s efforts are far from clear, especially with a potential change in administration and the pending movement of the SDA to the Space Force,” Harrison said.

Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, agreed. “There’s also the question of where this program fits into the overall national security space architecture,” he said. “At $35 million each, which is cheap in DoD satellite terms, just this one layer would be somewhere between $10 billion and $17 billion for 300 to 500 satellites. Even if that cost comes down per unit, it doesn’t take into account the need to refresh it with new satellites every few years and all the other hundreds to thousands of satellites in the SDA’s concept.”

“How does that fit in with what the Space Force is planning for future space constellations?” he added. “Where will the money for this program come from, and will it mean less money for the Space Force and all the existing space programs of record? We honestly don’t know yet because we don’t know how all these space acquisitions authorities and plans will be integrated, at least publicly.”