NATO To Invest In C2 For Strategic Pivot: China Rises As Alliance Threat

WASHINGTON: NATO will boost its collective funding pool for alliance-wide command and control, says Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Yesterday’s deal comes at a time when the US is pressing allies to support its emerging strategy for network-centric All Domain Operations in globe-spanning war with Russia and China.

“Increased common funding will enable us to do more command and control together, more exercises, higher readiness, invest in critical infrastructure, and many other things,” he told the Defense Writers Group this morning.

In the summit communique released yesterday, the 30 NATO heads of state meeting in Brussels agreed to increase NATO’s “common funding” beginning in 2023. The extra funding — the amount of which has not been hashed out — is designed to support a new “Strategic Guidance” to guide NATO future operations, and the cutting edge technologies (such as AI and big data analytics) needed to implement that reorientation.

NATO’s joint funds, which total about 2.5 billion Euro (about $3 billion) annually, are supplied by member nations on a cost-sharing scheme based on Gross National Income, and are spent on infrastructure and collective capabilities — such as airborne early warning — that would be too expensive for any individual ally to bear. The funds are divided into three separate budget baskets, according to NATO’s website: “the civil budget (NATO HQ running costs), the military budget (costs of the integrated Command Structure) and the NATO Security Investment Programme (military infrastructure and certain capabilities).” Extra contributions to efforts funded by the common pool, in cash and in kind, can also be made by groups of likeminded members.

New Strategic Concept

NATO leaders plan to sign off on the updated Strategic Guidance at the 2022 Madrid summit, said Stoltenberg, who will lead the effort. While he wouldn’t be drawn on details in order not to preempt member state discussion, he made clear the new approach is necessary to reflect an increasingly belligerent Russia and the rise of China as a military power with global ambitions.

“The need to update the Strategic Concept reflects that the world has changed since the last time we agreed the Strategic Concept, which was in 2010,” he said.

This was the first NATO summit to clearly identify China as a threat to all the members. “China’s stated ambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security,” the summit communique said.

NATO’s agreement to refocus its collective strategy comes as the US is about to finalize a new Joint Warfighting Concept, which centers on overcoming the high-tech threats that will be posed in conflicts with peer adversaries. That concept in turn relies heavily on DoD’s new Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) strategy for networking and managing high-speed military operations across all five domains of warfare: land, sea, air, space and cyberspace. The JADC2 strategy was recently approved by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and includes a push to integrate allies into the future meta-network — what military leaders sometimes refer to as Combined JADC2.

Russia: From Strategic Partnership To “Difficult Relationship”

When the alliance’s last Strategic Concept was signed, Stoltenberg said, “we actually hoped to work for a strategic partnership with Russia … that’s not the case now. We see a pattern of behavior by Russia — aggressive actions against neighbors — so it was [necessary] to change the language and the message on Russia.”

“Russia continues to breach the values, principles, trust, and commitments outlined in agreed documents that underpin the NATO-Russia relationship,” the summit communique says. “We have suspended all practical civilian and military cooperation with Russia, while remaining open to political dialogue. Until Russia demonstrates compliance with international law and its international obligations and responsibilities, there can be no return to ‘business as usual’.”

Still, Stoltenberg strongly backed the Biden administration’s efforts to revive more constructive US-Russia dialogue, and the renewed US commitment to nuclear arms control efforts, as risk reduction measures.

“Even if we don’t believe in that better relationship in the near or foreseeable future, we need to manage a difficult relationship with Russia to address risk,” he said, noting that “when we have more military presence, there is a risk for instance that accidents that can spiral out of control.”

NATO also needs to work with Russia on nuclear arms control, and therefore allies “very much welcome the extension of the New START agreement,” he added. “We, as allies, welcome and support that President Biden is going to meet with President Putin. … For us, dialogue is not a sign of weakness. It’s a sign of strength. So, President Biden has a united NATO behind him, when he meets with President Putin on Wednesday.”

China Looms Large

While Stoltenberg was careful in his language, he stressed that the new Strategic Concept must take into account potential threats from Beijing.

“China is not mentioned with one single word in the current Strategic Concept,” he said. “In one [way] or the other, I’m absolutely certain China will be reflected, and the challenges that China poses will be reflected.”

That said, he reiterated the summit communique’s language about the need for NATO nations to engage with China — a nod to the fact that not all NATO members are comfortable with painting China as an adversary. Nonetheless, it is clear that NATO members and other European countries are increasingly uncomfortable with what Western leaders see as a no-holds-barred push by Beijing to change the international order to its favor.

France and the EU, for example, have launched strategic reviews with a wary eye on China.

In an important symbol of that growing concern, the White House announced today that the US and the European Union agreed today in Brussels to suspend the 16-year-old tariff dispute between Boeing and Airbus for five years. (Many, but not all, 27 EU members also are members of NATO.)

“Today’s announcement resolves a long-standing trade irritant in the U.S.-Europe relationship,” US Trade Representative Katherine Tai told reporters this morning. “Instead of fighting with one of our closest allies, we are finally coming together against a common threat. We agreed to work together to challenge and counter China’s non-market practices in this sector in specific ways that reflect our standards for fair competition. This includes collaboration on inward and outbound investment and technology transfer.”

Investing In New Tech 

The agreement to bolster NATO common funds was largely spurred by a March 2020 Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040: Exploring the S&T Edge report from the alliance’s Science and Technology Organization. It identifies eight “emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs)” that will change the nature of warfare, and that NATO must embrace to stay ahead of threats.

Those include artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics and autonomy — all critical building blocks for JADC2. Also included are space technologies, hypersonics and quantum technologies that will underpin globalized warfare.

The S&T report explains that over the next 20 years, “four overarching characteristics can be expected to define many key advanced military technologies: “intelligent,” “interconnected,” “distributed” and “digital.” (Hmm, channeling former US Air Force acquisition czar Will Roper, perhaps?)

“Technologies with these characteristics are bound to increase the Alliance’s operational and organisational effectiveness through: the development of a knowledge and decision advantage; leveraging of emergent trusted data sources; increased effectiveness of mesh capabilities across all operational domains and instruments of power; and, adapting to a future security environment replete with cheap, distributed and globally available technologies,” the S&T report said.

Sensors: AWACS Replacement; Drones

NATO common funding currently supports two major programs: the NATO Airborne Early Warning and Control Force (NAEW&C Force), and the new(ish) Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) system.

The NAEW&C, which is one of the few military assets completely owned and operated by NATO, is based on a fleet of 14 aging Boeing E-3A Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) aircraft. The fleet is currently undergoing a $1 billion upgrade, but NATO intends to retire AWACS in 2035.

In 2020 six transatlantic firms and consortia provided concept proposals for a replacement effort — with the alliance considering moving away from an aircraft solution to a distributed sensor network, according to a report by colleague Valerie Insinna. According to NATO’s website, the next step is a “new competition” to be launched this year “for a second round of more in-depth industry advice, valued at up to Euro 90 million” (about $100 million).

The AGS is based on a fleet of five NATO RQ-4D Phoenix remotely piloted aircraft, which are derived from the US Air Force’s Block 40 Global Hawk.

In testimony to how hard it is for NATO to execute joint buys, the alliance agreed way back in 1992 that NATO needed to own and operate a “complete and integrated ground surveillance capability that would offer the Alliance and its member countries unrestricted and unfiltered access to ground surveillance data in near real-time, and in an interoperable manner.”

After a number of twists and turns, a group of 15 allies finally decided to buy the drones, and “the associated European-sourced ground command and control stations,” according to NATO’s website. The 15 supporters are: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and the United States. AGS initial operating capability was finally declared in February.