Even more significantly, the core question is what forces should conduct asymmetric operations and how does one determine success or failure, and how best do we ensure withdrawal of forces inserted into wars, which by definition will have no end?
Indeed, looking back from the standpoint of early 2014, has the US prevailed in Iraq and Afghanistan? And have these efforts been linked in any fundamental way with an overall American strategic effort in the Middle East?
At least one analyst has recently raised serious concerns about what is currently happening in Iraq and how that affects the overall position of the United States in the Middle East.
According to Stephen Blank in his assessment of Russian policy in Iraq and the Middle East:
“Ten years after the American invasion Iraq is in danger of disintegration. Its stability cannot be taken for granted or even assumed.
“Evidently Iraq is not far from being a failed state and Syria is already deep in the throes of protracted civil war.
“Both states may be racked for years by internal conflict, violence, instability, and the “mushrooming” of terrorist groups, given the anarchy prevailing there.
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“At the end of 2013 the U.S. had to rush sizable amounts of weapons to Iraq to stave off a major Sunni offensive in the form of Iraqi Al-Qaeda attacks, an insurgency that threatens to destabilize Iraq.
“Meanwhile the Iraqi Kurdish authorities (Kurdistan Regional Government-KRG) are moving openly and steadily towards independence, mainly connected with exporting energy located in Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey and, though less well known, Russia. This situation exposes both Iraq’s fragility and the overall collapse of U.S. policy in the Middle East.”
From the perspective of 2014, how successful has the Gates emphasis on the double surge been in terms of meeting U.S. strategic interests in the region?